GUO Mengjing,ZHOU Xiaode,LI Peng,et al.Investigation of the Changes in the Water Level of Bosten Lake in the Past 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(02):52-57.
近50年博斯腾湖水位变化特征分析
- Title:
- Investigation of the Changes in the Water Level of Bosten Lake in the Past 50 Years
- 分类号:
- P343.3
- 摘要:
- 以干旱区博斯腾湖为研究对象，依据博斯腾湖1956—2012年期间的水位监测数据，采用小波分析及Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势检验等统计学方法，揭示了近50 a博斯腾湖水位变化趋势及规律。结果显示：博斯腾湖1956—2012年水位变化分为3个阶段下降（1956—1987年）—上升（1988—2002年）—下降（2003—2012年），其中1956—1987年水位下降了3.39 m；1988—2002年上升了3.7 m；2003—2012年再次下降了3.21 m。水位总体上呈现出显著的下降趋势，且通过了α=0.05时的显著性检验。就其周期性变化规律而言，博斯腾湖水位存在18 a的主周期，而38 a的周期由于水位资料序列有限难以确定，需要更长的资料序列进行分析验证。
- Abstract:
- This paper was purposed to analyze the change characteristics of lake level in the Bosten Lake during the past 50 years. The lake is located in the arid area. In this paper, the methods of wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test were employed, and the data of water level from 1956 to 2012 were also used to analyze the changes of lake level. The results show that the variations of lake level can be divided into three periods, falling (1956—1987), rising(1988—2002) and falling (2003—2012). To be specific, the lake level declined by 3.39 m from 1956 to 1987. Then, it rose by 3.7 m from 1988 to 2002. Afterwards, it declined again by 3.21 m from 2003 to 2012. Based on the Mann-Kendall test, the lake level shows the significant decreasing trend with a significance test at the leve of 0.05. The primary change period of lake level was 18 a by using the Morlet wavelet analysis. In addition, there was another period of 38 a in terms of the lake level. It was difficult to determine this period due to the limitation of lake level data series. Therefore, the more data series of lake levels need to be tested and verified.
参考文献/References:
[1] 胡汝骥,姜逢清,王亚俊,等.论中国干旱区湖泊研究的重要意义[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(2):137-140.
[2] 王亚俊,孙占东.中国干旱区的湖泊[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(4):422-427.
[3] Li Y, Morrill C. Lake levels in Asia at the Last Glacial Maximum as indicators of hydrologic sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2013,60:1-12.
[4] Bai J, Chen X, Li J, et al. Changes in the area of inland lakes in arid regions of central Asia during the past 30 years[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2011,178(1/4):247-256.
[5] 李卫红,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖环境与资源的保护和可持续利用[J].干旱区地理,2002,25(3):225-230.
[6] Deus D, Gloaguen R, Krause P. Water balance modeling in a semi-arid environment with limited in situ data using remote sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania[J]. Remote Sensing,2013,5(4):1651-1680.
[7] Gibson J J, Prowse T D, Peters D L. Partitioning impacts of climate and regulation on water level variability in Great Slave Lake[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,329(1):196-206.
[8] 于浩.基于时间序列的延河流域水沙周期分析及趋势预测[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2008.
[9] 艾尼瓦尔·米热古力,依米提·海米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的伊塞克湖水位变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):168-172.
[10] Percival D B, Wang M, Overland J E. An introduction to wavelet analysis with applications to vegetation time series[J]. Community Ecology,2004,5(1):19-30.
[11] 夏库热·塔依尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的开都河径流变化周期研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):142-146.
[12] Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1945:245-259.
[13] Hamed K H. Trend detection in hydrologic data:the Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2008,349(3):350-363.
[14] 莫淑红,沈冰,季瑞瑞,等.西安市区地表供水水源径流变化规律分析[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(1):183-188.
[15] 郑红星,刘昌明.黄河源区径流年内分配变化规律分析[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(6):585-590.
[16] 王杰,王俊,申金玉.新疆博斯腾湖入湖水量变化及其对湖水位的影响分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2013,24(4):199-202.
[17] 王润,高前兆.近期博斯腾湖水位变化及其原因分析[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(1):60-64.
[18] 吴敬禄,马龙,曾海鳌.新疆博斯腾湖水质水量及其演化特征分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):231-237.
[19] 邱辉,赵巧华,朱伟军,等.博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其可能影响机制分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(3):289-295.
[20] 马丽娟,赵景峰,张宏俊,等.气候变化背景下冰川积雪融水对博斯腾湖水位变化的影响[J].干早区地理,2010,3(2):210-216.
[21] 王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.开都河流域上下游过去50 a气温降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):746-753.
[22] 刘丽梅,赵景峰,张建平,等.近50 a博斯腾湖逐年水量收支估算与水平衡分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):33-39.
[23] 高华中,姚亦锋.近50 a来人类活动对博斯腾湖水位影响的量化研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(3):305-309.
[24] 陈亚宁,杜强,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖流域水资源可持续利用研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.
相似文献/References:
[1]马元旭,来红州.荆江与洞庭湖区近50年水沙变化的研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(04):103.
MA Yuan-xu,LAI Hong-zhou.Research on the Variations of the Water and Sediment for Recent 50 Years in the Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(02):103.
[2]金海龙,王晓峰,王哲,等.新疆博斯腾湖资源开发与环境保护研究[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(03):58.
JIN Hailong,WANG Xiaofeng,WANG Zhe,et al.Study on Resources Development and Environmental Protection of the Bosteng Lake[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(02):58.
[3]罗兰,武胜利,刘强吉.博斯腾湖湖岸沉积物磁化率和粒度特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(02):346.
LUO Lan,WU Shengli,LIU Qiangji.Characteristics of Magnetic Susceptibility and Grain Size of Sediments in the Bosten Lake[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):346.
[4]伊丽努尔·阿力甫江,玉素甫江·如素力.基于SD模型的博斯腾湖水量平衡系统分析与仿真研究[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(06):126.
Ilnur·Ghalip,Yusufujiang·Rusuli.Analysis and Simulation of the Water Balance of Bosten Lake Based on System Dynamics Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(02):126.
[5]米热古力·艾尼瓦尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的伊塞克湖水位变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):168.
Mihrigul·Anwar,Hamid·Yimit,Mamattursun·Eziz,et al.Water Level Variations of Issyk-Kul Lake Based on Wavelet Analysis[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(02):168.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-11-20;改回日期:2015-01-06。
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目（2012CB723201）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“小流域淤地坝坝系防洪风险评价技术项目”（201201084）；水利部黄土高原水土流失过程与控制重点实验室开放课题基金（2014003，2014004）
作者简介:郭梦京(1986-),男,山西运城人,博士,主要从事环境水力学及环境保护研究。E-mail:guomengjing@163.com