[1]郭永杰,米文宝,赵莹,等.宁夏市域生态安全动态评价及预测[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(02):205-210.
　GUO Yong-jie,MI Wen-bao,ZHAO Ying,et al.Evaluation and Prediction on Ecological Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(02):205-210.
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宁夏市域生态安全动态评价及预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 21 期数: 2014年02期 页码: 205-210 栏目: 出版日期: 2014-04-28
Title:
Evaluation and Prediction on Ecological Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
作者:
郭永杰1, 米文宝1,2, 赵莹1, 郑芳1
1. 宁夏大学 资源环境学院, 银川 750021;
2. 宁夏大学 西北退化生态系统恢复与重建教育部重点实验室, 银川 750021
Author(s):
GUO Yong-jie1, MI Wen-bao1,2, ZHAO Ying1, ZHENG Fang1
1. School of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Restoration and Rehabilitation of the Degraded Ecosystem in Northwestern China, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
关键词:
宁夏; 生态安全; 动态评价; 预测
Keywords:
Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region; ecological security; dynamic evaluation; prediction
分类号:
X171.1
摘要:
以压力—状态—响应模型为框架，研究宁夏市域生态安全的时空变化趋势并对其未来的发展做出预测。为克服主观赋权的弊端，运用熵值法确定各项指标的权重，结合综合指数法计算、分析各市的生态安全度。在ArcGIS 10.0平台上对比分析宁夏不同时期的生态安全状况，最后使用GM（1，1）模型对宁夏各市未来的生态安全趋势进行预测。结果表明：宁夏地区的生态安全现状不容乐观，2005—2011年银川市的生态安全度从0.278下降到0.201，并有继续下降的趋势；在此期间，固原市从0.295 1上升到0.324 5，而且有继续上升的趋势；石嘴山、吴忠、中卫三市生态安全水平较低，根据模型预测在未来一段时间中无明显变化。
Abstract:
On the basis of PSR model, spatiotemporal variation trends of Ningxia regional ecological security were discussed in this paper and their relevant future development were predicted. In order to overcome the shortcomings of subjective weight definition, entropy method was used to determine the weight of each index, and then ecological security degree of each municipality was calculated by means of synthetically index method. Furthermore, ecological security situations of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in different years were analyzed contrastively based on ArcGIS 10.0 platform, finally GM(1,1) model was used to make prediction for future development about ecological security degree of each municipality. The research results showed as followings. The regional ecological security status quo of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was not optimistic. From 2005 to 2011, the ecological security degree of Yinchuan showed a decline from 0.278 to 0.201, and it would decrease continuously according to the prediction; while ecological security degree of Guyuan showed a rising trend from 0.295 1 to 0.324 5, and it will go up continuously according to the prediction; moreover, ecological security degree of Shizuishan, Wuzhong, Zhongwei City were relatively low, and they had inconspicuous variation according to the GM(1,1) model.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2013-07-30;改回日期:2013-09-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金“宁夏回族聚居限制开发区区域发展机理与模式研究”（41161020）
作者简介:郭永杰(1989-),男,河南许昌人,硕士研究生,主要从事区域可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:guoxguo2008@163.com
通讯作者:米文宝(1962-),男,陕西富平人,教授,博士研究生导师,主要从事生态学、区域地理与可持续发展研究。E-mail:miwbao@nxu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01