XU Qing-tao,GAO Biao,FANG Jiao.Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution Level in Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(04):258-263,267.
吉林省经济增长与环境污染水平演进关系的实证研究
- Title:
- Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution Level in Jilin Province
- 分类号:
- F062.2
- 摘要:
- 基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假设（EKC），采用吉林省1981—2010年的环境污染指标与经济增长指标数据，经统计回归得到环境污染指标与经济增长指标演进关系的计量模型，进而研究分析EKC的曲线特征。结果表明：吉林省的环境污染指标EKC形状不完全符合典型的“倒U型”特征。其中，工业废水排放量的EKC呈现“正U+倒U型”，在2009年出现拐点；工业废气排放量EKC呈连续增长态势，无拐点；工业固体废弃物产生量的EKC大致处于“倒U型”的左半部分，预计于2014年到达拐点；工业粉尘排放量的EKC呈对数函数，呈逐渐减小的趋势，不存在拐点；工业SO2排放量的EKC呈“正U+倒U型”，2008年出现拐点；工业废水COD排放量的EKC呈现不明显的“正U+倒U型”，2009年出现拐点，吉林省总体环境污染处于不断改善的阶段。灰色关联分析表明：吉林省环境污染指标的主要影响因素有工业比率、第三产业比率、单位GDP能耗、环境科研人数4个方面。吉林省必须采取一系列有效的对策，优化现有产业结构、加大科技创新力度、提高环境科研人员数量与素质，以保证经济增长与环境保护协调健康发展。
- Abstract:
- Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, the measurement models of various environmental pollution indicators with economic growth indicators are obtained by statistical simulation based on the data of environmental indicators and economic growth indicators in Jilin Province, and the characteristics of EKC is analyzed. The result indicates that the EKC of environmental indicators don’t completely match the ‘U’ shape. The EKC of industrial wastewater discharge amount shows the shape of ‘U+ inverted U’, the turning point has appeared in 2009. The EKC of industrial waste gas emissions is in continuous growth without turning point. The EKC of industrial solid waste generation quantity showed the left half part of the ‘U’ shape, the turning point will appear in 2014. The EKC of industrial dust emissions is a shape of logarithmic function, in a gradually decreasing trend without turning point. The EKC of industrial SO2 emissions showed the ‘U+ inverted U’ shape, the turning point appeared in 2008. The EKC of COD discharge amount of industrial wastewater showed the unobvious ‘U+ inverted U’ shape, the turning point appeared in 2009. The overall environmental pollution level in Jilin Province is at the stage of continuous improvement. The gray correlation analysis shows that the major influence factors of environmental indicators have four aspects: industry ratio, the tertiary industry ratio, energy consumption per unit of GDP, the number of environmental scientific research. Jilin Province must take a series of effective measures to optimize industrial structure, increase the innovations of science and technology, and improve the quality and quantity of environmental scientific research personnel in order to ensure coordinate healthy progress between economic growth and environmental protection.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-01-07;改回日期:2013-02-25。
基金项目:吉林省教育厅科研项目（吉教科合字（2013）第391号）；吉林省科技发展计划项目（20120408）；国家自然科学基金（41071388）
作者简介:许清涛(1965-),男,吉林伊通人,教授,主要研究方向:资源环境与可持续发展。E-mail:bc_xqt@126.com
通讯作者:高标(1980-),男,吉林白城人,讲师,主要研究方向:区域环境保护与可持续发展。E-mail:niatgb@126.com