[1]李玉平,朱琛,朱金亮,等.资源型城市邢台市生态足迹核算与预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(04):248-252.
　LI Yu-ping,ZHU Chen,ZHU Jin-liang,et al.Research for City Eecological Footprint Calculation and Prediction of Xingtai City of Resource Type[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(04):248-252.
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资源型城市邢台市生态足迹核算与预测研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 20 期数: 2013年04期 页码: 248-252 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-08-28
Title:
Research for City Eecological Footprint Calculation and Prediction of Xingtai City of Resource Type
作者:
李玉平1, 朱琛2, 朱金亮1, 闫伟乐3
1. 邢台学院 地理系, 河北 邢台 054001;
2. 河北师范大学 资源与环境科学学院, 河北 石家庄 050016;
3. 西北大学 城市与环境学院, 西安 710000
Author(s):
LI Yu-ping1, ZHU Chen2, ZHU Jin-liang1, YAN Wei-le3
1. Department of Geography, Xingtai University, Xingtai, Hebei 054001, China;
2. Institute of Resources and Environmental Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, 050016, China;
3. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710000, China
关键词:
资源型城市; 生态足迹; 可持续发展; 邢台市
Keywords:
resource type cities; ecological footprint; sustainable development; Xingtai city
分类号:
F301.2
摘要:
运用生态足迹和灰色预测模型，对资源型城市——邢台市2003—2011年的生态足迹进行分析，并对未来时段的生态足迹进行预测。结果表明：邢台市人均生态足迹从2003的1.866 hm2/人增至2011年的2.133 hm2/人，增加了0.267 hm2/人；而生态承载力却由0.376 5 hm2/人降至0.356 8 hm2/人，下降了0.019 7 hm2/人，从而产生了生态赤字；生态赤字由2003年的-1.489 5 hm2/人降至2005年的-1.951 2 hm2/人，出现了极值，然后又升至2011年的-1.776 2 hm2/人，呈“V”字形。邢台市的发展处于不可持续的状态。预测结果显示：2012—2025年，邢台市生态赤字逐年增大，从2012年的-1.746 6 hm2/人，增加到2025年的-1.685 6 hm2/人。邢台市未来资源消费仍将大大超过其生态承载力，处于不可持续的状态。因此，邢台市必须优化能源利用结构，加大土地开发整理力度，采取一系列有效的措施，提高社会经济的可持续水平。
Abstract:
The method of ecological footprint and the grey prediction model were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint during 2003 and 2011 trend of resources-based cities-Xingtai city, and the ecological footprint of the future forecast. The results indicated the per capita ecological footprint of Xingtai city ranged from 1.866 hm2 per capital to 2.133 hm2 per capital between 2003 and 2011, increasing 0.267 hm2 per capital. The ecological carrying capacity varied from 0.376 5 hm2 per capital to 0.356 8 hm2 per capital, decreasing by 0.019 7 hm2 per capital and resulting in the ecological deficit. Negative 1.951 2 hm2 per capital ecological deficit changed into negative 1.489 5 hm2 per capital from 2003 to 2005, the extreme value presented, and then it returned to minus 1.776 2 hm2 per capital people in 2011, its variation shaped looked like the "V", indicating that the development of Xingtai was in unsustainable state. The predictive results show that: from 2012 to 2025 in Xingtai City, the ecological deficit will increase year by year, from 1.746 6 hm2 per capital in 2012 to 1.685 6 hm2 per capital in 2025. The future resource consumption of Xingtai city will greatly exceed the ecological carrying capacity, and is unsustainable. Xingtai city must optimize the energy structure, increase the intensity of land development and consolidation, take a series of effective measures for the purpose of improving the sustainable social and economic level.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-12-28;改回日期:2013-02-01。
基金项目:河北省自然科学基金项目（D2012108001）
作者简介:李玉平(1967-),女,河北临西县人,硕士,教授,主要研究方向:土地规划、土地评价及区域可持续发展。E-mail:ll-yuping@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01