[1]王瑞发,夏非,张永战.青岛市近10年来耕地变化及其驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):108-114.
　WANG Rui-fa,XIA Fei,ZHANG Yong-zhan.Study on the Changes of the Cultivated Land and Their Driving Forces in Qingdao City over the Last 10 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(02):108-114.
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青岛市近10年来耕地变化及其驱动力分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 20 期数: 2013年02期 页码: 108-114 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-04-28
Title:
Study on the Changes of the Cultivated Land and Their Driving Forces in Qingdao City over the Last 10 Years
作者:
王瑞发1,2, 夏非1,2,3, 张永战1,2
1. 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院 海岸海洋科学系, 南京 210093;
2. 南京大学 海岸与海岛开发教育部 重点实验室, 南京 210093;
3. 美国北卡罗来纳州立大学 海洋、地球和大气科学系, 北卡罗来纳州 罗利 27695
Author(s):
WANG Rui-fa1,2, XIA Fei1,2,3, ZHANG Yong-zhan1,2
1. Department of Coastal Ocean Science, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
2. The Key Lab of Coast and Island Development, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
3. Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
关键词:
耕地变化; 驱动力; 环境—收入理论关系曲线; 灰色关联度分析; 主成分分析; 多元回归分析; 青岛市
Keywords:
cultivated land change; driving force; environment-income curve (EIC); grey relationship analysis (GRA); principal component analysis (PCA); multiple regression analysis (MRA); Qingdao City
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
利用耕地利用动态度和区域差异指数、环境—收入理论关系曲线及经济理论、灰色关联度分析、主成分分析、多元回归分析对2000—2009年间青岛市耕地的变化特点和驱动因子统计分析与比较。结果表明：耕地面积变化速度由强烈（2000—2003年动态度-0.106）变为缓慢（2006—2009年动态度0.014）；主要驱动因子为人口城市化、经济建设和产业结构。青岛市耕地变化的区域差异和阶段性特征显著；受经济发展的惯性影响，耕地阶段性变化的时间相对于类比性的工业化阶段性变化的时间要滞后1~2 a；耕地变化与人均GDP的关系呈倒N型曲线；产业结构和人口城市化分别是耕地面积变化的直接与深层次的影响因素。
Abstract:
Several study methods including land use dynamic index (LUDI) and regional differentiation index (RDI) of the cultivated land, environment-income curve (EIC), economic theory, grey relationship analysis (GRA), principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis (MRA) were applied to study the changes of the cultivated lands and their driving forces in Qingdao city during 2000—2009. It was obvious that the rate of changes of the cultivated lands switched from a higher level (LUDI -0.106 during 2000—2003) to a lower one (LUDI 0.014 during 2006—2009). Urbanization, economic construction and industrial structure were the main driving forces during this period. The results also showed that the changes of the cultivated lands in Qingdao city had a remarkable regional differentiation and phasic characteristics. The phase transition of the cultivated lands usually lagged about 1 or 2 years behind the phase transition of the analog industrialization due to the impact of the inertia of economic development. However, the curve of relationship between cultivated land changes and per capita GDP showed an inverted ‘N’ shape, which was different from previous study results. Furthermore, industrial structure and population urbanization were the direct and pervasive influence factors of cultivated land changes respectively.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-06-09;改回日期:2012-10-25。
基金项目:国土资源部公益性行业科研专项“典型海岸带地质环境监测关键技术与评价方法”（201011019）
作者简介:王瑞发(1986-),男,山东青岛人,硕士研究生,主要从事河口海岸带地貌环境研究工作。E-mail:ruifawang521@163.com
通讯作者:张永战(1970-),男,山东诸城人,博士,副教授,主要从事海岸海洋地貌研究。E-mail:zhangyzh@nju.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01