[1]高标,崔凤午.吉林省生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化分析与预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):105-110,116.
　GAO Biao,CUI Feng-wu.Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):105-110,116.
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吉林省生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化分析与预测研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 19 期数: 2012年06期 页码: 105-110,116 栏目: 出版日期: 2012-12-20
Title:
Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province
作者:
高标, 崔凤午
白城师范学院, 吉林 白城 137000
Author(s):
GAO Biao, CUI Feng-wu
Baicheng Normal College, Baicheng, Jilin 137000, China
关键词:
生态足迹; 生态承载力; 可持续发展; 生态赤字; 吉林省
Keywords:
ecological footprint; ecological capacity; sustainable development; ecological deficit; Jilin Province
分类号:
S181;X171
摘要:
运用生态足迹理论计算吉林省1996-2010年的人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力,分析人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力的动态变化,利用SPSS软件分析得到人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力的发展预测模型.结果表明:人均生态足迹在1996-1998年呈现先升后降;1998-2010年一直保持增长的趋势,从1.7841hm2/cap增长到3.2013hm2/cap,在1996-2010年期间,人均生态承载力由1.3710m2/cap减少到1.3028hm2/cap,生态赤字从0.5601m2/cap增加到1.8985hm2/cap,吉林省的发展处于不可持续的状态;万元GDP生态足迹由3.7692hm2减小到1.0144hm2,并存在进一步减小的趋势.发展预测模型显示:2011-2025年,吉林省人均生态足迹将由3.4201hm2/cap增大到6.0073hm2/cap,人均生态承载力由1.3001hm2/cap降到1.2581hm2/cap,生态赤字将由2.1200hm2/cap增大到4.7492hm2/cap.吉林省必须采取一系列有效的措施,改变现有的经济发展模式、加大科技创新、提高人民素质,否则,生态赤字将会不断地加大,可持续发展状况将进一步恶化.
Abstract:
This paper calculated ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in Jilin Province during 1996 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, analyzed the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, and obtained development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita by using the analysis of SPSS statistical software. The results indicated the ecological footprint per capita had ascended firstly and then descended between 1996 and 1998.It increased continuously from 1.7841hm2 per capita to 3.2013hm2 per capita between 1998 and 2010, and ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3710hm2 per capita to 1.3028hm2 per capita between 1996 and 2010. In the same period, ecological deficit had increased from 0.5601hm2 per capita to 1.8985hm2 per capita, indicating that the development of Jilin Province was in an unsustainable status. Ecological footprint per 10 000 RMB GDP dropped from 3.7692hm2 to 1.0144hm2 and had the trend of further reduction. The development prediction model showed the ecological footprint per capita in Jilin Province would increase from 3.4201hm2 per capita to 6.0073hm2 per capita between 2011 and 2025, ecological capacity per capita would drop from 1.3001hm2 per capita to 1.2581hm2 per capita and ecological deficit would increase from 2.1200hm2 per capita to 4.7492hm2 per capita. Jilin Province must take a series of effective measures to change the existing mode of economic development and improve scientific and technological innovation, and promote the quality of the people. Otherwise, the ecological deficit will continue to increase, the situation of sustainable development will deteriorate further.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-4-30;改回日期:2012-6-25。
基金项目:吉林省教育厅十二五社会科学研究项目(20110315)
作者简介:高标(1980- ),男,吉林白城人,讲师,硕士,主要研究方向:区域环境保护与可持续发展.E-mail:niatgb@126.com
通讯作者:崔凤午(1960- ),男,吉林白城人,教授,研究方向:数学建模.E-mail:cuifengwu219@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01