DUAN Wen-ming,MU Xing-min,GAO Peng,et al.Analysis on the Trend of Precipitation in Jialing River Basin Nearly 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):97-101.
嘉陵江流域近50年降水量演变规律分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Trend of Precipitation in Jialing River Basin Nearly 50 Years
- 分类号:
- P333.1
- 摘要:
- 利用嘉陵江流域12个气象站点的1960—2009年降雨实测资料，采用地统计学和时间序列等方法，分析了嘉陵江流域近50 a降水量时空变化特征，为旱涝、泥石流等自然灾害的防治提供依据。结果表明：流域内年平均降水量910.5 mm，降水量由东南到西北逐渐递减；近50 a来降水量总体上呈减少趋势，流域整体处于一个丰—平—枯的降水阶段；降水量的周期性比较明显，存在35 a、21 a尺度的周期；年内降水量具有季节性变化，降水量主要集中在5—9月，占全年降水量的80%左右，春、秋季降水量有减少趋势，流域夏季降水量除渠江有增加趋势外都有减少趋势，冬季变化趋势不明显；近50 a来降水量以正常年份居多，降水偏多年份多于偏少年份。通过分析虽年降水量有减少的趋势，但年内降水量却相对集中于夏秋季，因此仍要做好汛期的洪涝、水土流失等灾害的防治，以及春冬季的抗旱工作。
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation using the monthly precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations during the period of 1960—2009 based on geostatistics and time series analysis methods, which can serve as the convincing evidences for combating drought and flood, debris flow and other natural disasters. The results indicate that: the average annual precipitation is about 910.5 mm, which has a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest in the Jialingjiang River Basin. The precipitation shows downward trend in the last 50 years in the catchment, and has periodical features of 21 and 35 years. The precipitation has a rainy-normal-drier period in the last 50 years. The precipitation presents seasonal dynamics during the whole year, and mainly concentrated in the period of May to September, accounting for approximately 80% of annual rainfall. In addition, precipitation in spring and autumn demonstrates decreasing trends. In summer, most stations show downward trends except Qujiang River with an increasing trend, however, there is no significant trend for precipitation in winter. Nearly fifty years, the majority of rainfall occurred in a normal year, the rainy year was more common than drier year. Through the study, there is a decreasing trend in annual precipitation, but it is relatively concentrated in the summer and autumn through the year. Therefore, we should take some measures to prevent the floods, soil erosion or other disasters in flood season and take some measures to prevent drought in spring and winter too.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2011-8-4;改回日期:2011-9-13。
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目“中国主要水蚀区土壤侵蚀过程与调控研究”（2007CB407203）
作者简介:段文明（1985- ），男，山东滨州人，硕士，主要从事水土保持与环境效益研究。E-mail：duanwenming100@163.com
通讯作者:穆兴民（1961- ），男，陕西华阴人，工学博士，研究员，博士生导师，主要从事生态水文、水土保持研究。E-mail：xmmu@ms.iswc.ac.cn