[1]姜宁,付强,孙颖娜.基于Logistic模型的黑龙江省西部半干旱区有效灌溉面积分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(02):174-177.
　JIANG Ning,FU Qiang,SUN Ying-na.Analysis on Effective Irrigated Land Area in Western Heilongjiang Province Based on Logistic Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(02):174-177.
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基于Logistic模型的黑龙江省西部半干旱区有效灌溉面积分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 17 期数: 2010年02期 页码: 174-177 栏目: 出版日期: 2010-04-20
Title:
Analysis on Effective Irrigated Land Area in Western Heilongjiang Province Based on Logistic Model
作者:
姜宁1,2, 付强1, 孙颖娜2
1. 东北农业大学 水利与建筑学院, 哈尔滨 150030;
2. 黑龙江大学 水利电力学院, 哈尔滨 150080
Author(s):
JIANG Ning1,2, FU Qiang1, SUN Ying-na2
1. College of Water Conservancy and Architecture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;
2. College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
关键词:
Logistic模型; 有效灌溉面积; GM(1; 1)模型
Keywords:
Logistic model; effective irrigated land area; GM(1; 1)model
分类号:
S274.3
摘要:
有效灌溉面积是衡量区域粮食安全的重要指标，对于保障我国粮食生产与安全具有重要意义。通过对影响有效灌溉面积发展的影响因素分析，发现其发展过程主要经历3个阶段即起步期、发展期和成熟期，而这一过程恰好符合Logistic模型曲线趋势。根据齐齐哈尔地区1999-2006年有效灌溉面积建立了Logistic模型，并对其进行预测，在2016年该地区有效灌溉面积43.720万hm2，接近灌溉上限值43.763万hm2。因此，需要采取一定措施，促使影响有效灌溉面积发展的有利因子占主导地位，使得齐齐哈尔地区有效灌溉面积发展进入下一个新的循环。
Abstract:
Effective irrigated land area is an important for regional food security. It is of great significance for the protection of China’s food production and security. The paper analyzed factors of the development of effective irrigated land area. The results showed that development process mainly goes through three stages of start, development and maturity period. Its development process is in line with the trend curve of Logistic model. The paper established an effective irrigated land area Logistic model to forecast according to effective irrigated land area of Qiqihar city from 1999-2006. It would reach 4.372×105 hm2, close to the upper limit of 4.376 3×105 hm2 in 2016. By taking certain measures to develop dominant factors, effective irrigated land area in Qiqihar city will go into the next new cycle.

参考文献/References:

[1] 柳长顺, 杜丽娟, 陈献, 等.近20年我国有效灌溉面积动态分析[J].资源科学, 2006, 28(3):8-12.
[2] 付强.农业水土资源系统分析与综合评价[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2005.
[3] 刘思峰.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社, 2000.
[4] 姜永, 李德新.Logistic方程的灰色建模法[J].福建农林大学学报:自然科学版, 2004, 33(12):535-537.
[5] 陈彦光.人口与资源预测中Logistic模型承载量参数的自回归估计[J].自然资源学报, 2009, 24(6):1105-1113.
[6] 吴海臣, 吴华, 柴玲.浅谈齐齐哈尔市水资源的开发利用[J].黑龙江水利科技, 2002(4):63-65.
[7] 齐齐哈尔经济统计年鉴编委会.1998-2007年齐齐哈尔经济统计年鉴[M].北京:统计出版社

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2009-9-24。
基金项目:黑龙江省科技攻关项目（GB06B106-7）；黑龙江大学青年基金（QL200824）；国家“十一五”科技支撑计划子课题（2009BADB3B02）
作者简介:姜宁（1976- ），女，黑龙江省密山人，博士，主要从事农业水土资源系统分析节水灌溉技术研究。E-mail：haerbinjn@yahoo.com.cn
通讯作者:付强（1973- ），男，辽宁锦州人，教授，博士生导师，主要从事农业水土资源系统分析、节水灌溉及农业系统工程建模与优化技术研究。

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01