GAO Zhao-ning,YAO Ling-kan.Disscussion on Evolution Feature and Prediction of Mountain Hazards[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(03):146-149.
山地灾害演化特征和预测预报探讨
- Title:
- Disscussion on Evolution Feature and Prediction of Mountain Hazards
- Keywords:
- sandpiles model; self-organized criticality(SOC); mountain hazards; Hurst exponent; RSH algorithm
- 分类号:
- P642.2
- 摘要:
- 用3种粒径分布具有分形特征的沙堆作为山地灾害的概化模型，通过实验研究其动力学行为，结果均呈现自组织临界性。利用既有的地貌特征，进一步分析了山地灾害的演化特征，表明幂律特征和自组织临界性是许多山地灾害的共性。将改进的重标极差分析方法引入泥石流灾害前兆观测资料的处理和分析中，以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例，计算总径流量时间序列的赫斯特指数H值，得出可以利用H值的异常变化特点预测预报大规模泥石流灾害的发生。
- Abstract:
- Three kinds of sandpiles with size distribution which professed fractal characters designed as the generalization models of the mountain disasters,their dynamics behavior are researched by experiment.The results showed self-organize criticality.According to the current geomorphology characteristics,the evolution characters of mountain hazards are analyzed further,all of them have the characteristics of power-law and self-organized criticality.The improved rescaled range analysis was introduced into the analysis and treatment on the precursor monitoring date of the debris flow disaster,Hurst exponent H is calculated,which could forecast the occurrence of great scale debris flow by abnormal change of value H Jiangjiagou debris flow in Yunnan as example.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2007-9-17。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（50478085）
作者简介:高召宁（1971- ），男，陕西蓝田人，博士，主要从事非线性科学在工程中的应用研究。E-mail：gaozn1207@sohu.com