[1]马彩虹.宁夏西吉县可持续发展评价与预测[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(05):41-45,66.
　MA Cai-hong.Sustainability Evaluation and Prediction in Xiji County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(05):41-45,66.
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宁夏西吉县可持续发展评价与预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 14 期数: 2007年05期 页码: 41-45,66 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Sustainability Evaluation and Prediction in Xiji County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
作者:
马彩虹
陕西理工学院 历史文化系, 陕西 汉中 723001
Author(s):
MA Cai-hong
Department of History and Culture, Shaanxi University of Technology, Hanzhong, Shaanxi 723001, China
关键词:
生态足迹; 生态承载力; 预测模型; 可持续发展
Keywords:
ecological footprint; ecological capacity; prediction model; sustainability
分类号:
X171.1
摘要:
利用生态足迹法对宁夏西吉县近26 a来的可持续发展进行了评价研究，构建了该县生态足迹、生态承载力随时间变化的预测模型，预测了未来西吉县的可持续发展趋势。结果表明，西吉县人均生态足迹由1978年的0.190 5 hm2逐年增加至2003年的0.442 5 hm2，而同期的人均生态承载力则由0.304 4 hm2逐年减少到0.204 7 hm2，可见生态足迹与生态承载力呈反方向发展趋势。西吉县1978年的生态盈余为0.113 9 hm2，1987年出现生态赤字，2003年人均生态赤字增至0.237 8 hm2。该区1978年的生态压力指数为0.63，1986年为0.99，2003年增至2.16。说明西吉县人口对自然资源的利用从1987年开始超出自然生态系统的承载力，生态经济系统的发展处于不可持续状态。据模型预测，2010年和2015年西吉县人均生态足迹分别为0.534 0和0.639 7 hm2，人均生态承载力分别是0.205 9和0.225 9 hm2，人均生态赤字分别达到0.328 2和0.413 8 hm2。如果不改变现有发展模式，西吉县的生态赤字将不断增加，可持续发展面临更严峻的考验。
Abstract:
By ecological footprint method,the sustainability state of Xiji county in Ningxia Autonomous Region was studied in the past 26 years.And sustainability trend of the county was calculated by forecast model of ecological footprint and ecological capacity.The results showed that ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 0.190 5 hm2 to 0.442 5 hm2 from 1978 to 2003,whereas,ecological capacity per capita declined year by year from 0.304 4 hm2 to 0.204 7 hm2.A conclusion could be drawn that the ecological footprint and ecological capacity development just in the opposite direction.In 1978,the ecological surplus was 0.113 9 hm2,and in 1986 ecological deficit arose,which rose to 0.237 8 hm2 in 2003.And the utilization of natural resource of the county was beyond the capacity of the natural ecological system now,the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going up.The forecast showed that ecological footprint per capita would be 0.534 0 hm2 in 2010 and 0.639 7 hm2 in 2015,and that ecological capacity per capita would be 0.205 9 hm2 in 2010 and 0.225 9 hm2 in 2015,and that ecological deficit per capita would reach 0.328 2 hm2 in 2010 and 0.413 8 hm2 in 2015.The research indicates that the present developing model is not sustainable,the ecological environment is at risk.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2006-7-17。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（3937055，39670586）；陕西省自然科学基金项目（2001SM27）
作者简介:马彩红（1974- ），女，宁夏西吉人，硕士研究生，主要从事生态环境评价研究。

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01