LI Qing-cui,ZHANG Zhen-hua,XIE Heng-xing.Population Analysis and Prediction of Yantai City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(03):80-81.
烟台市人口分析及预测
- Title:
- Population Analysis and Prediction of Yantai City
- Keywords:
- time series analysis model; GM(1; 1); model; fitting precision; predicting
- 分类号:
- C92-03
- 摘要:
- 利用时间序列分析模型和GM(1，1)模型拟合了烟台市人口数量，并对未来4年烟台市人口进行了预测.结果显示，二次滑动平均模型的相对误差波动范围为-0.731%～0.70%，均接近于0，预测精度最高.利用二次滑动平均模型预测未来4年烟台市人口分别为646.395万人、646.445万人、646.495万人和646.545万人，人口有逐年缓慢上升的趋势.
- Abstract:
- Time series analysis model and GM(1,1) model were applied to fit population of Yantai city,and the population in future four years were predicted.Results showed that the relative error of two-step moving average model arranged from-0.731% to 0.702%,closing to 0,the predicting precision of this model was the highest one.The population in future four years predicted with the two-step moving average model were 6.46395 million,6.46445 million,6.46495 million and 6.46545 million,respectively,it would be ascending gradually year by year.
参考文献/References:
[1] 唐启义, 冯明光.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社, 2002.614-636.
[2] 邓聚龙.灰色控制系统[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1985.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2006-6-2
基金项目:烟台师范学院重点基金项目(043201);人才引进基金(000444)资助
作者简介:李清翠(1982- )，女，山东德州人，在读研究生，主要从事区域水土资源高效利用研究;