[1]张正栋,等.韩江流域下游耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——以汕头市为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(01):17-20.
　ZHANG Zheng-dong,ZHOU Yong-zhang,et al.Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in the Lower Valley of Hanjiang River：the Case of Shantou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(01):17-20.
点击复制

韩江流域下游耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——以汕头市为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 14 期数: 2007年01期 页码: 17-20 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in the Lower Valley of Hanjiang River：the Case of Shantou City
作者:
张正栋1,2,3,, 周永章2, 夏斌1, 郑光湖4, 盛莹4
1. 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所, 广州 510640;
2. 中山大学地球资源与地球环境研究中心, 广州 510275;
3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039;
4. 嘉应学院地理系, 广东梅州 514015
Author(s):
ZHANG Zheng-dong1,2,3,, ZHOU Yong-zhang2, XIA Bin1, ZHENG Guang-hu4, SHENG Ying4
1. Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, CAS, Guangzhou 510640, China;
2. Institute of Earth Environment & Resources, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
3. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
4. Geography Department, Jiaying University, Meizhou 514015, China
关键词:
耕地; 驱动因子; 多元分析; 韩江流域
Keywords:
cultivated land; driving factor; multivariate analysis; the valley of Hanjiang River
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
利用1949~2003年的统计资料，分析了近55年来汕头市耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。应用GIS进行空间分析，通过建立多元回归模型，对汕头市2010年、2015年和2020年的耕地数量进行了初步预测。分析结果表明：汕头市耕地总面积、人均耕地面积呈明显递减态势，经济发展、人口压力、农业产业结构调整和农业科技进步4类因素是影响耕地数量变化的4个主成分，其结果将为进一步研究粤东北潮汕平原耕地变化提供借鉴，为合理利用和保护耕地、促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。
Abstract:
According to the statistical and survey data of the year of 1949 to 2003, the overall tendency, spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Shantou City from the year of 1949 are discussed. The results of analysis can be found as follows. Firstly, the total area of cultivated land and the per capita cultivated land are reducing. Secondly, taking advantage of the formula of the relative change index and in support of the technology of GIS aided spatial analysis, the relative change index of the cultivated land of the partial regions in Shantou City can be indicated in the map, from which the spatial distribution of the changing area of cultivated land can be seen and compared very clearly. Thirdly, with the method of principal component analysis, eleven driving forces which play an important role in the changing of the cultivated land are classified into four types, which are the development of economy, the pressure of population, the adjustments of agricultural structure and the improvement of agricultural technology. All these analytical results and conclusions will be beneficial to providing theoretical and practical guide for the variation and protection of cultivated land, and scientific basis for sustainable development of Shantou City.

参考文献/References:

[1] 黄宁生,广东省耕地面积变化的宏观驱动机制研究[J].地球科学-中国地质大学学报,1999,24(4):359-362.
[2] 封志明,刘宝勤,杨艳昭.中国耕地资源数量变化的趋势分析与数据重建:1949-2003[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):35-43.
[3] 满苏尔·沙比提,海鹰,阿布拉江·苏来曼.近50年来渭干河──库车河三角洲绿洲耕地变化及其成因[J].地理研究,2004,23(4):487-494.
[4] 刘成武,黄利民.土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究方法[J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(4):11-14.
[5] 赵 杰,赵士洞.利用PRA方法研究小尺度区域土地利用变化——以科尔沁沙地尧勒甸子村为例[J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(1):73-76.
[6] 广东省汕头市统计局.汕头市统计年鉴(1949-2004)[Z].1949-2004.

相似文献/References:

[1]张冰洁,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区典型地域耕地生态安全评价及驱动力分析——以黑龙江省绥化市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):215.
　ZHANG Bing-jie,SONG Ge.Evaluation on Cultivated Land Ecological Security and Analysis on the Driving Forces of the Typical Mollisols Area in Songnen High Plain ——A Case Study of Suihua City in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):215.
[2]朱传民,黄雅丹,吴佳,等.江西省县域耕地集约利用水平时空差异研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):160.
　ZHU Chuan-min,HUANG Ya-dan,WU Jia,et al.Study on Spatio-temporal Difference in Intensive Use of Cultivated Land at the County Scale in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):160.
[3]化龙雷,雷国平,张慧.煤炭城市土地集约利用评价及其驱动因子分析——以黑龙江省七台河市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):212.
　HUA Long-lei,LEI Guo-ping,ZHANG Hui.Analysis on Evaluation and Driving Factors on Intensive Landuse of the Coal-base City -A Case Study of Qitaihe City of Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):212.
[4]杨大兵,刘惠德,郑丙辉,等.基于GIS的中国西部耕地变化原因动态分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(01):170.
　YANG Da-bing,LIU Hui-de,ZHENG Bing-hui,et al.Dynamic Analysis of Cultivated Land Change in Western China Based on GIS[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(01):170.
[5]余艳玲,余杨,郑宏刚,等.云南省陇川县章凤镇耕地复垦整理研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):215.
　YU Yan-ling,YU Yang,ZHENG Hong-gang,et al.Study on Land Consolidation in Zhangfeng Town of Longchuan District in Yunnan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(01):215.
[6]李祥,王心源,顾继光,等.基于灰色预测法的芜湖市耕地变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(05):14.
　LI Xiang,WANG Xin-yuan,GU Ji-guang,et al.Research on the Cultivated Land Change of Wuhu City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(01):14.
[7]杨树佳,郑新奇,王爱萍,等.耕地保护与基本农田布局方法研究——以济南市为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):4.
　YANG Shu-jia,ZHENG Xin-qi,WANG Ai-ping,et al.The Method Research of Cultivated Land Protection and Basic Farmland Distribution——Taking Jinan for Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(01):4.
[8]史兴民,李有利,杨景春.天山北麓褶皱丘陵的特征与演化[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):311.
　SHI Xing-min,LI You-li,YANG Jing-chun.Evolution and Characteristics of Fold on Northern Tianshan[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(01):311.
[9]张忠启,文安邦.土壤侵蚀近期变化及原因分析——以重庆市万州区为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(03):118.
　ZHANG Zhong-qi,WEN An-bang.Analysis of Recent Changes and Reasons of Soil Erosion——A Case Study of Wanzhou Region,Chongqing[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(01):118.
[10]文倩,崔卫国,刘艳艳.区域耕地变化与人口及经济增长的关系研究——以湖南醴陵市为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(05):206.
　WEN Qian,CUI We-guo,LIU Yan-yan.Study of Regional Cultivated Land Change with Population Growth and Economy Increase in Central China——A Case Study in Liling City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(01):206.
[11]郝仕龙,柯俊,李壁成,等.黄土丘陵区耕地动态变化与驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(03):132.
　HAO Shi-long,KE Jun,LI Bi-cheng,et al.Analysis of Dynamic Change and Driving Forces of Farmland in Loess Hilly-gully Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(01):132.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2006-1-29;改回日期:。
基金项目:广东省科技计划项目（2004B20501002）；广东省自然科学基金项目（5008167）；嘉应学院“地图学与地理信息系统”重点学科资助项目
作者简介:张正栋（1968- ），男，教授，博士生，主要研究方向为区域可持续发展、地理信息系统和土地科学。

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01