[1]李祥,王心源,顾继光,等.基于灰色预测法的芜湖市耕地变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(05):14-16.
　LI Xiang,WANG Xin-yuan,GU Ji-guang,et al.Research on the Cultivated Land Change of Wuhu City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(05):14-16.
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基于灰色预测法的芜湖市耕地变化研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 13 期数: 2006年05期 页码: 14-16 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Research on the Cultivated Land Change of Wuhu City Based on Grey Theory
作者:
李祥1, 王心源1,2, 顾继光3, 张广胜1
1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院遥感实验室, 芜湖, 241000;
2. 中国科技大学地球与空间科学系, 合肥, 230026;
3. 暨南大学水生物研究所, 广州, 510632
Author(s):
LI Xiang1, WANG Xin-yuan1,2, GU Ji-guang3, ZHANG Guang-sheng1
1. Laboratory of RS Application of College of National Territorial Resource and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241000;
2. School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China;
3. Institute of Hydrobiology of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, China
关键词:
灰色模型; 耕地; 预测; 芜湖市
Keywords:
gray model; cultivated land; forecast; Wuhu City
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
应用灰色系统预测理论,建立芜湖市耕地预测模型GM(1,1),利用1996～200年耕地面积建立时间数列,对其求解、检验、预测,可得到今后数年的芜湖市耕地面积数量,对合理利用耕地资源、实现耕地的可持续发展有重要意义.最后并对灰色系统模型应用于耕地面积预测作了可行性分析,研究表明:①灰色模型适合于任何一个无规律到有规律的系统.②耕地数据在主导因素--政府政策没有太大的变化的情况下,它本身就是一个理想的灰色数列.③应用灰色模型作耕地面积预测为政府做耕地长期规划提供了一个较精确的预算方案.
Abstract:
Applying the grey prediction theory to establish model GM(1,1) of the cultivated land of Wuhu City,and set up time sequence using 1996~2003 cultivated land area,and then caculate it,check out,forecast,at last the cultivated land area in the future in Wuhu City is gained,which makes it of significance of using land resources reasonably and realizing the sustainable development of cultivated land.Lastly the calculation result proved that this method is feasible and effective,the result shows:①gray model is propitious to any system from rule to no rule.②Cultivated land data is on the condition of steady leading factors-the government policy has made great change,and it itself is also an ideal gray sequence.③ It offers a better budget plan that the appliance of gray model forecasting makes lasting cultivated land project.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2005-12-20。
基金项目:国家自然基金项目(40571162);安徽省自然科学基金项目(050450401)
作者简介:李祥(1977- ),男,安徽和县人,硕士研究生,主要从事数学建模在地学中的应用研究和教学.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01