[1]梁守真,李仁东.湖北省农作物播种面积灰色预测[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):114-115,119.
　LIANG Shou-zhen,LI Ren-dong.Grey Prediction Model on Sown Areas of Farm Crops in Hubei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):114-115,119.
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湖北省农作物播种面积灰色预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 13 期数: 2006年04期 页码: 114-115,119 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Grey Prediction Model on Sown Areas of Farm Crops in Hubei Province
作者:
梁守真1,2, 李仁东1
1. 中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所, 武汉430077;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100039
Author(s):
LIANG Shou-zhen1,2, LI Ren-dong1
1. Institute of Survey and Geophysics, CAS, Wuhan 430077, China;
2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
关键词:
灰色理论; 灰色预测模型; GM(1; 1); 湖北
Keywords:
grey theory; grey prediction model; GM(1 1); Hubei
分类号:
S5-33;O29
摘要:
首先介绍了灰色系统理论及灰色预测建模原理,以湖北省连续9年的农作物播种面积数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对湖北省未来8年的农作物播种面积进行了预测,并对预测结果进行检验,预测结果精度较高,可以用来对湖北省未来几年的农作物播种面积进行预测.结果表明,湖北省农作物播种面积呈现逐步下降趋势,土地利用规划部门应实行严格的耕地保护制度,切实保障农民的利益,提高农民耕种的积极性.
Abstract:
First the theory of grey system and of principle grey prediction model is presented.Based on the data of sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province for 9 years,the GM(1,1) grey prediction model is established and the precision of prediction is higher by checking the result,so the model may be applied to the prediction of sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province for futural severe years.The results show that the sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province is decreased.

参考文献/References:

[1] 白木,子荫.粮食背后潜伏着安全危机[J].粮食安全,2002,(3):9-10.
[2] 邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1986.
[3] 高兆蔚.我国21世纪森林资源发展趋势灰色预测[J].林业资源管理,2003,4(2):31-33.
[4] 国家统计局.2004中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2005.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2005-7-15
基金项目:中国科学院重大知识创新项目(KZCX2-SW-415)
作者简介:梁守真(1979- ),男,山东阳谷人,硕士研究生,研究方向为GIS和遥感应用.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01