Ning Jing,Li Yajie,Wang Zhen,et al.Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Major Grain Producing Provinces in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(01):450-459.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.002]
中国粮食主产省区农业碳排放特征及影响因素
- Title:
- Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Major Grain Producing Provinces in China
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)01-0450-10
- Keywords:
- agricultural carbon emission; carbon emission intensity; TAPIO; LMDI
- 分类号:
- X322; F327
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]分析粮食主产省区农业碳排放特征及影响因素,为促进碳减排、农业可持续发展提供参考。[方法]基于农用投入物质、农作物种植、畜禽业养殖、秸秆焚烧4类农业碳排放源测算2010—2020年粮食主产区的农业碳排放并采用TAPIO脱钩模型和LMDI模型分析粮食主产区农业碳排放特征及影响因素。[结果]2010—2020年粮食主产区碳排放呈现先增长后下降的趋势,2010年的860.78 Mt增长至2020年的871.64 Mt,增加了10.86 Mt,增幅1.26%。2017年达到峰值927.68 Mt; 农用投入物质为主要碳排放源。碳排放强度呈下降趋势,省域最高碳排强度可达3.99 t/万元。农业碳排放与经济增长的关系上,低排高产区为理想状态,目前,除河北省为低排高产区域,其余研究省域多数处于高排、低产区域。粮食主产区农业碳排放与农业经济的关系不断改善,2020年已有7省处于强脱钩状态。农业生产效率、地区产业结构、农村人口、农业产业结构是抑制碳排的主要因素。[结论]实现粮食主产区碳减排,促进农业可持续发展应从提升农业生产效率、控制畜禽出栏量和存栏量等多方面协同推进。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] Analyzing the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in major grain-producing provinces and regions can provide reference for promoting carbon emission reduction and sustainable agricultural development. [Methods] Based on four types of agricultural carbon emission sources, namely, agricultural input materials, crop cultivation, livestock and poultry breeding, and straw burning, the agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas from 2010 to 2020 were measured and the TAPIO decoupling model and LMDI model were used to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas. [Results] From 2010 to 2020, the carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas increased first and then decreased. The carbon emissions in 2010 increased from 860.78 Mt to 871.64 Mt in 2020, with the increase of 10.86 Mt, or 1.26%. In 2017, it reached a peak of 927.68 Mt. Agricultural inputs were the main source of carbon emissions. The carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend, and the highest carbon emission intensity in the province could reach to 3.99 t/million. In terms of the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth, low emission and high yield areas were ideal. Currently, most of the study provinces are in high discharge and low yield areas, except for Hebei Province which is a low discharge and high yield area. The relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economy in the main grain producing areas had been continuously improved. By 2020, seven provinces could be in a strong decoupling state. Agricultural production efficiency, regional industrial structure, rural population and agricultural industrial structure are the main factors to curb carbon emissions. [Conclusion] Achieving carbon emission reduction in the main grain producing areas and promoting sustainable agricultural development should be promoted in a concerted manner by improving agricultural production efficiency and controlling the amount of slaughtered and stocked livestock and poultry.
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相似文献/References:
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-12-01 修回日期:2022-12-23
资助项目:国家自然科学基金“基于社会—经济系统分析框架的黑土区农田土地退化特征及适应性生态修复研究:以宾县为例”(41971217)
第一作者:宁静(1978—),女,黑龙江哈尔滨人,副教授,博士,方向:土地生态及3S技术。E-mail:jning@neau.edu.cn