[1]胡纪汉,毛铭江,龚文峰,等.基于PSR-OWA模型的海口市生态风险评价及模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(01):301-314.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.007]
　Hu Jihan,Mao Mingjiang,Gong Wenfeng,et al.Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation of Haikou City Based on PSR-OWA Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(01):301-314.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.007]
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基于PSR-OWA模型的海口市生态风险评价及模拟研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 31 期数: 2024年01期 页码: 301-314 栏目: 出版日期: 2024-02-20
Title:
Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation of Haikou City Based on PSR-OWA Model
文章编号:
1005-3409(2024)01-0301-14
作者:
胡纪汉1,2, 毛铭江1,2, 龚文峰1,2, 刘铁冬1,2, 邱新彩1,2, 吴庚鸿1,2, 谢艺丹1,2
(1.海南大学 林学院, 海口 570228; 2.海南大学 海口市智慧林业重点实验室, 海口 570228)
Author(s):
Hu Jihan1,2, Mao Mingjiang1,2, Gong Wenfeng1,2, Liu Tiedong1,2, Qiu Xincai1,2, Wu Genghong1,2, Xie Yidan1,2
(1.College of Forestry, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; 2.Intelligent Forestry Key Laboratory of Haikou City, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)
关键词:
生态风险;  PSR;  空间自相关;  空间分异特征;  OWA
Keywords:
ecological risk;  PSR;  spatial autocorrelation;  spatial differentiation characteristics;  OWA
分类号:
X826
DOI:
10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
[目的]评价区域生态风险并揭示其时空演变规律,对于降低区域生态风险、维护生态安全和合理开发与规划国土空间具有重要意义。[方法]基于海口市2000年、2010年、2020年Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像,引入区域累计气旋能量、城市开发利用强度和旅游压力等评价因子,构建基于网格尺度下的PSR(Pressure-State-Response)典型自然环境和社会经济背景下的区域生态风险评估模型,探究20年间区域生态风险空间分布格局、时空分异及其关联特征,基于双变量全局空间自相关揭示海口市城镇化水平对区域生态风险的响应关系,同时耦合GIS-OWA模型模拟不同情景下海口市生态风险时空格局配置及其生态保护对策。[结果](1)2000—2020年期间海口市低和高生态风险区分别增加229.7 km2,91.38 km2,中生态风险区减少的面积最大,为150.48 km2,研究区生态状况总体上有所改善;(2)研究期间区域高等级生态风险区呈持续扩张趋势,海口市中西部生态风险整体优于北部及江东新区等城镇建设区;(3)3期Moran's I均高于0.6且呈递增趋势,生态风险空间聚集特征明显并呈现显著的空间上正相关,生态风险格局及其空间关联格局整体呈现出“南北高中间低”“东热西冷”的异质性特征,城镇化水平对区域生态风险的影响程度不断加深;(4)低风险(87.5%)、中风险(33.6%)和高风险(70.7%)分别在“生态优先型”“维持现状型”和“开发优先型”3种模拟模型中占据一定优势地位。[结论]海口市生态风险呈现向好发展趋势,存在显著空间异质性,且发展趋势受到决策者影响巨大。研究结果可为海口市生态风险防范、土地利用优化决策和区域生态系统可持续管理提供理论依据和决策支持。
Abstract:
[Objective] Evaluating regional ecological risks and revealing their spatial-temporal evolution patterns are important for reducing regional ecological risks, maintaining ecological security, and rational spatial development and planning of national land. [Methods] Based on the Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images of Haikou in 2000, 2010 and 2020, evaluation factors such as regional accumulative cyclone energy, urban development and utilization intensity and tourism pressure were introduced. A regional ecological risk assessment model based on Pressure-State-Response(PSR)under typical natural environment and socio-economic background at grid scale was constructed to explore the spatial distribution pattern, spatial-temporal differentiation and correlation characteristics of regional ecological risks in the past 20 years. Based on bivariate global spatial autocorrelation, the response relationship of urbanization level to regional ecological risk in Haikou City was revealed, and the GIS-OWA model was coupled to simulate the spatial and temporal configuration of ecological risk in Haikou City and its ecological protection countermeasures under different scenarios. [Results](1)From 2000 to 2020, the low and high ecological risk areas in Haikou City increased by 229.7 km2 and 91.38 km2, respectively, and the area of medium ecological risk area decreased the most, which was 150.48 km2. The ecological status of the study area was generally improved.(2)During the study period, the regional high-level ecological risk area showed a continuous expansion trend, and the ecological risk in the central and western parts of Haikou City was better than that in urban construction areas such as the north and Jiangdong New Area.(3)Moran's I was higher than 0.6 in the three periods and showed an increasing trend. The spatial aggregation characteristics of ecological risks were obvious and showed a significant spatial positive correlation. The ecological risk pattern and its spatial correlation pattern showed heterogeneity characteristics of ‘high in the north and south, low in the middle' and ‘hot in the east and cold in the west'. The impact of urbanization level on regional ecological risk was deepening.(4)Low risk(87.5%), medium risk(33.6%), and high risk(70.7%)occupied a certain dominant position in the three simulation models of ‘ecological priority', ‘maintenance status' and ‘development priority', respectively. [Conclusion] Ecological risks in Haikou city show a positive development trend, with significant spatial heterogeneity, and the development trend is greatly influenced by policy makers. The results of this study can provide the theoretical basis and decision support for ecological risk prevention, land use optimization decision-making, and sustainable management of regional ecosystems in Haikou City.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2022-10-17 修回日期:2022-11-20
资助项目:海南省自然科学基金(621RC507); 中国气象局海南生态环境监测项目(ZQC-J20142); 海口市智慧林业重点实验室资助(2020-057); 海南大学自然科学基金(KYQD(ZR)20058)
第一作者:胡纪汉(1999—),男,安徽淮南人,硕士研究生,研究方向为资源环境遥感与GIS应用。E-mail:jihanhu@163.com
通信作者:龚文峰(1976—),男,河南省南阳市人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为资源环境遥感与GIS应用。E-mail:gwf101@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2024-02-20