LI Xiehui,LIU Zitang.Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in Sichuan Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(01):264-273.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.012]
四川盆地极端气温事件时空变化特征及未来趋势
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in Sichuan Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)01-0264-10
- Keywords:
- extreme precipitation index; spatiotemporal change characteristics; mutation test; Hurst index; Sichuan Basin
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 极端气温事件是全球变暖的主要表现之一,其发生不仅制约着国民经济的发展,而且会对人民生命财产安全造成严重威胁。为了了解四川盆地极端气温事件的过去时空变化特征和未来变化趋势,利用1970—2019年四川盆地内14个气象站点的逐日气温资料,通过选用和计算10个极端气温指数,并对这些指数进行线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、滑动T检验、与地理因子的相关分析和R/S预测等,主要对四川盆地近50年来极端气温事件的时空变化特征和未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明:(1)近50年内,四川盆地的极端气温指数都呈暖化趋势,是全球变暖的正响应区;(2)5个极端冷指数表现为盆地的北部和西部高于南部和中东部地区,其中四川的温江和都江堰地区普遍较低,5个极端暖指数表现为盆地的中东部高于西部和北部地区,其中重庆市的万州和沙坪坝地区普遍较高;(3)近50年里四川盆地的极端气温并无明显突变;(4)极端气温指数与地理因子有关,经度越大,纬度越低,海拔高度越低,极端气温指数值变化越大,体现为盆地的东南部地区极端气温事件变化最大;(5)由R/S分析可知在未来四川盆地内的冷事件减少,暖事件增加,极端气温事件将继续呈现增加趋势。综上,持续的极端暖事件的增加将会引起四川盆地干旱和高温灾害性天气的增加,需提前做好预警和防范。
- Abstract:
- Extreme temperature event is one of the main manifestations of global warming. Its occurrence not only restricts the development of national economy, but also poses a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and property. In order to understand the past spatiotemporal variation characteristics and future variation trends of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Basin, based on the daily temperature data of 14 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin from 1970 to 2019, by selecting and calculating 10 extreme temperature indices, and carrying out linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, sliding T test, correlation analysis with geographical factors and R/S prediction, we mainly analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and future trend of extreme temperature events in Sichuan Basin in recent 50 years. The results showed that:(1)in recent 50 years, the extreme temperature index of Sichuan Basin showed a warming trend, which was a positive response area to global warming.(2)the five extreme cold indices were higher in the northern and western parts of the basin than in the southern and central-eastern regions; the five extreme cold indices of Wenjiang and Dujiangyan areas in Sichuan Province were generally lower, and the five extreme warm indices were higher in the central and eastern parts of the basin than in the western and northern regions; the five extreme warm indices of Wanzhou and Shapingba areas in Chongqing were generally higher.(3)the extreme temperature in Sichuan Basin had not changed significantly in recent 50 years.(4)the extreme temperature index was related to geographical factors; the greater the longitude, the lower the latitude and the lower the altitude, the greater the change of extreme temperature index, which was reflected in the maximum change of extreme temperature events in the southeast of the basin.(5)the R/S analysis showed that cold events will decrease in the Sichuan Basin, warm events will increase, and extreme temperature events will continue to show an increasing trend in the future. To sum up, the continuous increase of extreme warm events will lead to an increase in droughts and high-temperature disastrous weather in the Sichuan Basin, and early warning and prevention are required.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-09-02 修回日期:2021-11-29
资助项目:科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0105); 四川省科技计划项目(2021YJ0025)
第一作者:李谢辉(1977—),女,河南平舆人,博士,副教授,主要从事气象灾害风险评估与极端气候变化研究。E-mail:lixiehui@cuit.edu.cn
通信作者:刘子堂(1998—),男,甘肃武威人,学士,助理工程师,主要从事极端气候变化研究。E-mail:liuzitang1211@qq.com