WANG Long,SONG Xiaoyu,LI Lanjun,et al.Variation Trend and Attribution Analysis of Runoff in Typical Small Watershed in Gully Region of the Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):48-53.
黄土高原沟壑区典型小流域径流变化趋势及归因分析
- Title:
- Variation Trend and Attribution Analysis of Runoff in Typical Small Watershed in Gully Region of the Loess Plateau
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)04-0048-06
- 关键词:
- 径流变化; 双累积曲线法; 弹性系数法; Mann-Kendall趋势检验; 南小河沟流域
- Keywords:
- runoff change; double cumulative curve method; elastic coefficient method; Mann-Kendall trend test; Nanxiaohegou watershed
- 分类号:
- P333.3
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了探究黄土高原小流域径流变化的驱动因素,改进流域治理规划,实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。以黄土高原水土保持治理的典型小流域——南小河沟流域为研究对象,基于1958—2017年实测的水文及土地利用资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对降雨、径流资料进行了趋势分析及突变点检验; 基于双累积曲线法和弹性系数法对该流域的径流变化进行了归因分析,定量揭示了气候变化和人类活动对于径流变化的贡献率,并对不同方法计算结果进行了比较。结果表明:(1)径流的突变点出现在1985年,在0.05的显著性水平之下,降水量和径流量在基准期呈波动趋势,降水量在变化期则呈不显著减少趋势,径流量在变化期则呈现显著的减少趋势;(2)双累积曲线法计算得到气候变化和人类活动对于径流减少的贡献率分别为7%,93%; 弹性系数法计算得出气候变化和人类活动对于径流减少的贡献率分别为42.6%,57.4%。综上,人类活动是径流变化的主要影响因素;相比双累积曲线法,在对黄土高原小流域径流变化进行归因分析时更推荐采用弹性系数法。
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the driving factors of runoff change in small watershed of the Loess Plateau, improve watershed management, and realize ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, Nanxiaohegou watershed, a typical small watershed for soil and water conservation on the Loess Plateau was taken as the research object. Based on the measured hydrological and land use data from 1958 to 2017, the trend analysis and abrupt change point test of precipitation and runoff data were conducted by using Mann-Kendall trend test method. Then, the attribution analysis and quantitative analysis of runoff change were conducted to explore the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change by adopting the double cumulative curve method and the elastic coefficient method. The calculation results of different methods were compared. The results show that:(1)the abrupt change point of runoff occurred in 1985; in the base period, both the precipitation and runoff showed a fluctuating trend, while the precipitation did not show a significant decrease trend in the change period; however, the runoff showed a significant decrease trend;(2)the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff reduction were 7% and 93%, respectively, by the double cumulative curve method, and 42.6% and 57.4%, respectively, by the elastic coefficient method. Above all, Human activities were the main influencing factors of runoff change. Compared with the double cumulative curve method, the elastic coefficient method is more recommended for attribution analysis of runoff variation in small watershed of Loess Plateau.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-08-12 修回日期:2020-09-03资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41771259,41171034); 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2019JZ-45)第一作者:王陇(1996—),男,陕西榆林人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文学及水资源。E-mail:651552972@qq.com通信作者:宋孝玉(1971—),女,陕西安康人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文学及水资源方面的研究。E-mail:songxy@xaut.edu.cn