WANG Fei,ZHU Zhongyuan,HAO Xiangyun,et al.Variation Characteristics of Snowfall Concentration Period in Xilin River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(03):239-247.
锡林河流域降雪集中度集中期变化特征
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics of Snowfall Concentration Period in Xilin River Basin
- 分类号:
- P426.3
- 摘要:
- 利用1970—2016年锡林河流域4个国家气象站台的冬季降水资料，计算了流域的降雪集中度（PCD）、集中期（PCP），并采用线性趋势分析、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall突变分析及R/S分析等方法，研究了流域近50年降雪集中度、集中期的变化特征。结果表明：锡林浩特站降雪较为集中，而阿巴嘎旗站降雪最不集中。流域降雪南部较北部更加集中，集中度增减趋势则呈东增西减之势；流域大部分站点都存在12月上旬这一个共同的集中期，集中期偏早年较多。集中度存在以25 a左右为主的周期变化，在此周期内降雪会经历集中—不集中—集中的交替变化，集中期的变化以24 a为主周期，在主周期内存在早—晚—早交替变化，且2016年以后集中期仍处在偏早期。流域各站的集中度在未来年变化趋势均表现为反持续性。
- Abstract:
- The snowfall concentration (PCD), concentration period (PCP) of the basin was calculated by using the winter precipitation data of four national meteorological stations in the Xilin River Basin from 1970 to 2016, and linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and R/S analysis methods were used to study the variation characteristics of snowfall concentration and concentration period in the basin over the past 50 years. The results showed that the snowfall at Xilinhot Station was relatively concentrated, while the snowfall at Abaqi Banner was the least concentrated, the southern part of the basin was more concentrated than the north, and the trend of increasing or decreasing concentration was increasing eastward and westward. Snowfalls in most of the stations in the basin had a common concentration period in early December, and the concentration period was more early in the early years. There is a cyclical change with concentration of about 25-year period. During this period, snowfall underwent alternating-concentration-concentration alternating changes. The concentration period changed with 24-year period as the main cycle, and there was early-late-early alternation in the main cycle. Changes and the concentration period after 2016 will be still in the early stages. The snowfall concentration of stations in the basin will be anti-sustainability in the future.
参考文献/References:
[1] Mudelsee M, Btirngenl M, Tetzlaff G, et al. No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe[J]. Nature, 2003,425(6954):166-169.
[2] Esteban P, Jones P D, Martín-Vide J, et al. Atmospheric circulation patterns related to heavy snowfall days in Andorra, Pyrenees[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2005,25(3):319-329.
[3] 陈家其.近二千年中国重大气象灾害气候变化背景初步分析[J].自然灾害学报,1996(2):18-27.
[4] 李效收,张明军,汪宝龙,等.天山地区冬季降雪量及其集中度和集中期的变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(8):1556-1564.
[5] 周陆生,李海红,汪青春.青藏高原东部牧区大:暴雪过程及雪灾分布的基本特征[J].高原气象,2000,19(4):450-458.
[6] 杨莲梅,杨涛,贾丽红,等.新疆大:暴雪气候特征及其水汽分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(3):389-396.
[7] 赵俊荣,郭金强.天山北坡中部一次罕见特大暴雪天气成因[J].干旱气象,2010,28(4):438-442.
[8] 江毅,钱维宏.内蒙古大(暴)雪的区域特征[J].地理学报,2003,58(1):38-48.
[9] 宫德吉,李彰俊.内蒙古大(暴)雪与白灾的气候学特征[J].气象,2000,26(12):24-28.
[10] 郝祥云,朱仲元,张圣微,等.近35 a锡林河流域积雪变化及其对气候的响应[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):444-450.
[11] 郝祥云,朱仲元,宋海清,等.锡林河流域积雪时空特征及其对径流的影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):360-365.
[12] 段超宇,司建宁.基于SWAT模型的寒旱区积雪与融雪期径流模拟应用研究:以锡林河流域上游为例[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,29(2):94-97.
[13] 王冀,赵春雨,娄德君.东北地区冬季降雪的集中度和集中期变化特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(9):1069-1078.
[14] Zhang L J, Qian Y F. Annual distribution features of theyearly precipitation in China and their interannual variations[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003,17(2):146-163.
[15] 杨远东.河川径流年内分配的计算方法[J].地理学报,1984,39(2):218-227.
[16] 白松竹,陈真,庄晓翠,等.阿勒泰地区冬季降雪的集中度和集中期变化特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(1):99-107.
[17] 王文圣,丁晶,向红莲.小波分析在水文学中的应用研究及展望[J].水科学进展,2002,13(4):515-520.
[18] 夏库热,塔依尔,海米提·依米提,等.基于小波分析的开都河径流变化周期研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):142-146.
[19] 王文圣,丁晶,向红莲.水文时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波变换法[J].工程科学与技术,2002,34(6):14-17.
[20] 李国栋,田海峰,彭剑峰,等.基于小波和M-K方法的商丘气温时间序列分析[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(3):78-84.
[21] 管晓祥,张建云,鞠琴,等.多种方法在水文关键要素一致性检验中的比较[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2018,39(2):51-56.
[22] 潘雅婧,王仰麟,彭建,等.基于小波与R/S方法的汉江中下游流域降水量时间序列分析[J].地理研究,2012,31(5):811-820.
[23] 冯利华,吴樟荣. R/S分析在大气降水丰枯变化趋势预测中的应用[J].系统管理学报,2001,10(1):79-81.
[24] 禹朴家,徐海量,刘世薇,等.阿克苏河年径流变化的非线性特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1412-1422.
[25] 郝祥云,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50 a锡林河流域极端天气事件及其与气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):114-120.
相似文献/References:
[1]刘德林,刘贤赵,张继平.大沽夹河流域径流年内分配特征的量化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(06):107.
LIU De-lin,LIU Xian-zhao,ZHANG Ji-ping.A Study on the Quantification of Annual Runoff Distribution Characteristics in the Dagujia River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(03):107.
[2]于红博,张巧凤,包金兰.锡林河流域长时间序列蒸散量遥感监测及其相关因子[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):366.
YU Hongbo,ZHANG Qiaofeng,BAO Jinlan.Long Time Series Remote Sensing Monitoring of Evapotranspiration in Xilin River Basin and Related Factors[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(03):366.
[3]王军,李和平,鹿海员,等.典型草原地区蒸散发研究与分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):69.
WANG Jun,LI He-ping,LU Hai-yuan,et al.Research for Evapotranspiration of the Typical Grassland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):69.
[4]董煜,海米提·依米提.艾比湖流域径流水文特征及其对降水变化响应——以博尔塔拉河为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(02):94.
DONG Yu,Haimiti·Yimiti.Runoff Characteristics and Responses to Precipitation in the Ebinur Lake Basin -A Case Study of Boertala River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):94.
[5]李佳秀,徐长春,王晓,等.开都河流域极端水文事件变化及其对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(05):285.
LI Jia-xiu,XU Chang-chun,WANG Xiao,et al.Extreme Hydrological Events and Its Response to Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):285.
[6]段超宇,张生,李锦荣,等.基于SWAT模型的内蒙古锡林河流域降水-径流特征及不同水文年径流模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(05):292.
DUAN Chao-yu,ZHANG Sheng,LI Jin-rong,et al.Analysis on Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics and Simulation of the Different Hydrologic Year Runoff of Xilin River Basin in Inner Mongolia Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):292.
[7]于红博,包玉海,李和平,等.锡林河流域蒸散量遥感反演[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):224.
YU Hong-bo,BAO Yu-hai,LI He-ping,et al.Remote Sensing Retrieval of Evapotranspiration in Xilin River Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):224.
[8]于红博,包玉海,张巧凤,等.锡林河流域蒸散量时空变化遥感监测[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):290.
YU Hong-bo,BAO Yu-hai,ZHANG Qiao-feng,et al.Remote Sensing Monitoring of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Evapotranspiration in Xilin River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):290.
[9]王威娜,高瑞忠,王喜喜,等.锡林河流域径流变化规律及气候波动和人类活动影响的定量分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(02):347.
WANG Weina,GAO Ruizhong,WANG Xixi,et al.Quantitative Analysis of Runoff Variations as Affected by Climate Variability and Human Activity in the Xilin River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):347.
[10]甄英,何静.青藏高原东南缘阿坝州降水变化时空特征及突变性分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(04):195.
ZHEN Ying,HE Jing.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Mutation Analysis of Precipitation Variation in Aba Prefecture on the Southeast Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):195.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-07-25;改回日期:2018-08-25。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金“基于冰雪融水转化过程与植被—土壤水热互馈机制的牧草生物量模型构建”（51669018）
作者简介:王飞(1993-),男,内蒙古呼和浩特市人,硕士研究生,主要从事干旱区水资源可持续利用及规划方面研究。E-mail:625824965@qq.com
通讯作者:朱仲元(1956-),男,内蒙古凉城县人,博士生导师,主要从事水文水资源与草原生态方面的研究。E-mail:731011410@qq.com