[1]鲁菁,张玉虎,高峰,等.近40年三江平原极端降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(02):272-282.
　LU Jing,ZHANG Yuhu,GAO Feng,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):272-282.
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近40年三江平原极端降水时空变化特征分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年02期 页码: 272-282 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-04-28
Title:
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40 Years
作者:
鲁菁1, 张玉虎1, 高峰1, 刘玉洁2
1. 首都师范大学 资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048;
2. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
Author(s):
LU Jing1, ZHANG Yuhu1, GAO Feng1, LIU Yujie2
1. College of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
关键词:
极端降水指数; Mann-Kendall突变; 累积距平; Hurst指数; 三江平原
Keywords:
extreme precipitation index; Mann-Kendall method; cumulative distance; Hurst index; Sanjiang Plain
分类号:
P426.61
摘要:
研究区域尺度极端降水时空格局有助于区域整体性评估降水可能带来的风险。以三江平原21个气象站点1979—2014年逐日降水量观测资料为基础，选取了11个极端降水指数，应用气候倾向率、克里金插值法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平、R/S分析法和相关分析法，从降水强度、降水频率等方面分析了近40 a三江平原极端降水时空变化特征，并对极端降水指数进行了趋势预测。研究表明：（1）近40 a三江平原极端降水指数整体呈减少趋势，且降水量减少主要表现为降水强度降低；其中持续干燥日数（CDD）、普通日降水强度（SDⅡ）、5日最大降水量（RX5day）存在明显突变现象，均在2000年左右发生“由多到少”的突变；（2）极端降水指数变化趋势存在显著空间差异，RX1day，RX5day，R99p呈减少趋势的站点所占比例分别为52.4%，61.9%，61.9%；年降水总量（PRCPTOT）整体呈现“西北、东南地区上升趋势显著，东北、西南地区以下降趋势为主”的降水分布格局，极端降水总量（R99P）上升幅度较大的地区主要集中于平原中部的宝清县；（3）根据极端降水指数的历史变化趋势与Hurst指数叠加结果预测可知，未来极端降水指数基本呈上升趋势。研究结果可为三江平原农业区充分利用天然降水、预估农业气象灾害影响提供科学依据。
Abstract:
Within the context of climate change, extreme climate events occurred frequently. By using climatic tendency rate, Kriging interpolation method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, accumulative distance leveling, R/S analysis, the variation characteristics and trend prediction of extreme precipitation process in the target area were analyzed based on long-term(1979—2014) daily precipitation data from 21 meteorological stations. The results showed a decreasing trend on the extreme precipitation over the past 40 years in the Sanjiang Plain, which was mainly reflected by the precipitation intensity. Moreover, there were obvious mutations in CDD, SDⅡ, and RX5day. There was a significant spatial difference in the extreme precipitation variation trend. The percentages of sites with decreasing RX1day, RX5day and R99p were 52.4%, 61.9% and 61.9%, respectively. The total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) was presented as ’increase in Northwest-Southeast and decrease in Northeast-Southwest’. According to the historical trend of the extreme precipitation index and the prediction of the superposition of the Hurst index, it can be seen that the future extreme precipitation index will present the rising trend in the future. These results can provide scientific basis for making full use of natural precipitation and predicting the influence of agrometeorological disasters in the agricultural area of Sanjiang Plain.

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相似文献/References:

[1]李胜利,巩在武,石振彬.近50年来山东省极端降水指数变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(04):120.
　LI Shengli,GONG Zaiwu,SHI Zhenbin.Characteristics of Change in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Shandong Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):120.
[2]赵国永,韩艳,刘明华,等.1961-2013年河南省极端降水事件时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(06):115.
　ZHAO Guoyong,HAN Yan,LIU Minghua,et al.Spatial-temporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Henan Province from 1961 to 2013[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):115.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-06-02;改回日期:2018-06-29。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0406002）；中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目（2016049）；中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目（2014108）
作者简介:鲁菁(1995-),女,河南南阳人,硕士生,研究方向为水系统风险评价。E-mail:lu_jing13@163.com
通讯作者:张玉虎(1975-),男,江苏徐州人,博士,副教授,主要从事环境系统分析及风险评估研究。E-mail:zhang_yuhu@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01