HE Bing,GAO Fan,TANG Xiaoyu,et al.Diagnosis of Variation of the Relationship Between Hydrological and Meteorological Elements in Arid Rnland Rivers of Xinjiang Based on the Sliding Copula Function[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):155-161.
基于滑动Copula函数的新疆干旱内陆河流水文气象要素变异关系诊断
- Title:
- Diagnosis of Variation of the Relationship Between Hydrological and Meteorological Elements in Arid Rnland Rivers of Xinjiang Based on the Sliding Copula Function
- Keywords:
- variation diagnosis; Copula function; data sliding; Ulungur River
- 分类号:
- P333.6
- 摘要:
- 选取乌伦古河流域源流区出山口二台水文站1959-2015年长系列实测月径流量和同步气象观测资料，采用累积距平法、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法，在对水文、气象要素序列演变规律分析的基础上，运用Person相关系数法分析径流与降水、气温的相关性，将Copula函数与数据滑动窗口技术相结合分析了径流与气象要素（降水、气温）的内在关系及变异特征。结果表明：（1）乌伦古河源流区年径流量以0.026亿m3/10 a的微速率波动减少，减少趋势不显著（Uα/2=-1.96 < U=-0.15 < 0），未来呈增加趋势（Hurst指数H=0.36<0.5）；同时段年降水量以7.52 mm/10 a的微弱增长速率波动增加，且在1990年后，波动较为频繁，未来呈持续增加趋势（Hurst指数H=0.63>0.5），增加趋势显著（U=2.57>Uα/2=1.96）；（2）年降水量是影响乌伦古河源流区径流量的最主要因子；（3）将年降水作为气象因子与径流量构成联合序列，进行基于滑动Copula函数对乌伦古河流域源流区长系列径流-降水联合序列进行了变异特征分析与变异点诊断，表明：其径流-降水关系变异点位是1979年，且由第一阶段（1959-1979年）的Clayton-Copula函数分布变异到第二阶段（1980-2015年）的Gauss-Copula函数分布。研究结果与实际相符，造成该研究区径流序列变异的原因主要归结为第一阶段（1959-1979年）降水量和年均气温的显著减小趋势，以及1980年以后由于人类活动强度加大，二台水文站以上干支流先后修建了库容总量约3 000万m3的水库，对流域降水产汇流及河道上下游径流间的自然相关关系的改变。
- Abstract:
- The monthly runoff and meteorological data covering the years from 1959 to 2015 were collected from the Ertai hydrological station at the mountain-pass of the Ulungur River Basin headstream area to synthetically analyze the period and the trend of hydrological and meteorological elements using the cumulative average deviation, R/S analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test. Furthermore, the correlations between runoff, precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the Pearson correlation method, while the internal relationship and the variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature were analyzed by combining the Copula function with the data sliding window technology. The results found that the annual runoff in the headstream area of the Ulungur River decreased with the micro rate fluctuation of 2.6×106 m3/decade and the trend would increase (Hurst index H=0.36 < 0.5) with a less significant tendency (Uα/2=-1.96 < U=-0.15 < 0) in the future; smilarly, the annual precipitation during the same period was found to increase with the weak growth rate of 7.52 mm/decade, and the fluctuation was more frequent after 1990, and the trend would increase (Hurst index H=0.63 > 0.5) in a significant tendency (U=2.57 > Ua/2=1.96) in the future, and annual precipitation was the most important factor affecting runoff in Ulungur River Basin headstream area. Combing annual precipitation with annual runoff to form joint sequence, we analyzed the variation characteristics and the variation point diagnosis of the long runoff and precipitation joint sequence in Ulungur River Basin headstream area on the basis of sliding Copula function. The variation of runoff precipitation relationship occurred in 1979, while the Clayton-Copula distribution function in the first stage (1959-1979) shifted to the Gauss-Copula distribution function in the second stage (1980-2015). The results of this study can reflect the real-world scenario. The primary reason for the variation in the runoff sequence in the study area was the significant decreasing trend in the precipitation and annual average temperature in the first stage (1959-1979) along with the increase in the intensity of human activities since 1980. The construction of the reservoir with the total volume of about 30 million m3 on trunk stream and tributaries upper of the Ertai hydrological station changed the natural correlation between the runoff yield and concentration of the basin, and the runoff between the upstream and downstream.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-4-7;改回日期:2018-5-8。
基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学项目"人类活动与气候变化的流域生态水文响应研究：以新疆乌伦古河流域为例"（2017D01A43）
作者简介:何兵(1992-),男,安徽滁州人,硕士研究生,研究方向:内陆干旱区水文过程及水资源利用。E-mail:1223215435@qq.com
通讯作者:高凡(1980-),女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,长期从事水资源系统工程与河流生态保护研究工作。E-mail:gutongfan0202@163.com