LI Xuewen,GAO Chao,YIN Zhouxiang.Precipitation Threshold of Drought Disaster for Maize Above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(05):162-169,178.
淮河流域蚌埠闸以上地区夏玉米生长水分关键期干旱致灾降水阈值
- Title:
- Precipitation Threshold of Drought Disaster for Maize Above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, China
- Keywords:
- summer maize; precipitation threshold of drought disaster; method of precipitation probability; optimal probability distribution model
- 分类号:
- S162.1
- 摘要:
- 基于淮河流域蚌埠闸以上地区66个气象站点1961-2015年气象资料，利用夏玉米气候产量与生育期内水分盈亏指数进行了相关性分析，确定夏玉米生长水分关键期，并利用28种分布函数对水分关键期内降水量序列进行了拟合，K-S和A-D进行了拟合优度检验，建立了最优概率分布模型，再基于降水概率分位数法定量化设计夏玉米各级干旱的致灾降水阈值R，通过典型干旱年份和站点验证了指标的合理性。结果表明：（1）淮河流域蚌埠闸以上地区夏玉米抽雄-成熟阶段是夏玉米生长的水分关键期；（2）各站点夏玉米生长水分关键期内降水序列的最优概率分布模型差异明显；（3）66个站点夏玉米干旱致灾的降水阈值地区差异较大，但各级阈值空间分布大致相同，均呈现北部至南部依次增加的趋势，其中西部的桐柏和南部的霍山最高，利用泰森多边形法确定整个研究区夏玉米生长水分关键期内干旱致灾降水阈值分别是：轻旱147 ≤ R < 172 mm，中旱118 ≤ R < 147 mm，重旱89 ≤ R < 118 mm，特旱R<89 mm。
- Abstract:
- Based on meteorological data from 66 stations during 1961-2015 above the Bengbu Sluice of Huaihe River Basin(BHR). Using the correlation analysis between summer maize climatic yield and water budget index at different growth stages, the critical period of water in summer maize growth is determined. 28 kinds of distribution functions are used to fit the precipitation sequence during the critical period of water in summer maize growth. By applying Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and Anderson-Darling (A-D) goodness of fit test, the optimal probability distribution model is established. The precipitation threshold R for each level of drought in summer maize is then quantified based on ‘precipitation probability quantile method’ and the rationality of the index is verified by typical drought years and sites. This paper analyzed the causes of frequent drought during the summer maize period from the perspective of atmospheric circulation. At last, the quantitative relationship between precipitation threshold drought disaster and yield reduction rate of summer maize is obtained. The results are as follows. (1) Stage of tassel appearance-maturity is the critical period of water in summer maize growth in the BHR. (2) There is a significant difference in the optimal probability distribution model in 66 typical sites of the precipitation sequence during the critical period of water in summer maize growth. (3) The precipitation thresholds of drought disaster in 66 sites of summer maize vary greatly from regions to regions. But the spatial distribution of thresholds at all levels is roughly same, which shows the increasing trend from north to south, among which Tongbai in western and Huoshan in southern are the highest. By using the Tyson polygon method, precipitation threshold of drought disaster during the critical period of water in summer maize growth in the BHR are 147 ≤ R < 172 mm in the scenario of mild drought, 118 ≤ R < 147 mm in the scenarion of moderate drought, 89 ≤ R < 118 mm in the scenarion of severe drought, R < 89 mm in the scenarion of extreme drought, respectively.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-10-24;改回日期:2017-11-09。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金“不同空间尺度农业旱涝灾害气象因子致灾阈值的确定：以淮河上游地区为例”（41571018）
作者简介:李学文(1993-),男,安徽来安人,硕士生,主要从事农业气象灾害研究。E-mail:18226985683@163.com
通讯作者:高超(1978-),男,安徽全椒人,教授,博士,主要从事气候变化与水文水资源研究。E-mail:gaoqinchao1@163.com