[1]曹广超,付建新,李玲琴,等.1960-2014年祁连山南坡及其附近地区气温时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(03):88-96.
　CAO Guangchao,FU Jianxin,LI Lingqin,et al.Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in the South Slope of Qilian Mountains and Its Nearby Regions During the Period From 1960 to 2014[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):88-96.
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1960-2014年祁连山南坡及其附近地区气温时空变化特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 25 期数: 2018年03期 页码: 88-96 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-04-10
Title:
Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in the South Slope of Qilian Mountains and Its Nearby Regions During the Period From 1960 to 2014
作者:
曹广超1,2, 付建新1,2, 李玲琴1,2, 曹生奎1,2, 唐仲霞1,2, 蒋刚1,2, 虞敏1,2, 袁杰1,2, 汉光昭1,2, 刁二龙1,2
1. 青海师范大学 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008;
2. 青海师范大学 地理科学学院, 西宁 810008
Author(s):
CAO Guangchao1,2, FU Jianxin1,2, LI Lingqin1,2, CAO Shengkui1,2, TANG Zhongxia1,2, JIANG Gang1,2, YU Min1,2, YUAN Jie1,2, HAN Guangzhao1,2, DIAO Erlong
1. Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province Physical Geography and Environmental Process, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China;
2. College of Geography Science Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
关键词:
气温; 变化趋势; 空间分布; 祁连山
Keywords:
temperature; change trend; spatial distribution; Qilian Mountains
分类号:
P467
摘要:
基于祁连山南坡及其附近19个气象站点的1960-2014年气温数据，利用线性趋势法、相关分析法、多项式趋势法、5年滑动平均、R/S分析方法、ArcGIS方法对其气温的时间变化与空间分布作了详细分析。结果表明：多年平均气温变化趋势为波动上升趋势，增长率为0.35℃/10 a，最低气温与最高气温的增长率分别为0.478，0.275℃/10 a，季节气温同样为上升趋势，其中冬季气温增幅最大，说明最低气温与冬季气温对气温上升贡献最大；从年代际变化来看，2000-2014年气温的升高趋势比1990-1999年有所下降，并不能说明全球变暖停滞，可能受到自然外强迫造成的；气温的Hurst指数为0.5 < H < 1，表明今后气温的变化趋势与过去变化趋势具有相同的特征；大部分气象站点多年平均气温与季节气温的变化均为增长趋势，通过显著性检验站点的比率较高，而年代际气温的空间变化差异较大。
Abstract:
Based on air temperature data observed in 19 meteorological stations in the south slope of Qilian Mountains and its nearby regions from 1960 to 2014, the methods of linear regression, correlation analysis, polynomial trend, moving mean, Hurst index and ArcGIS were used to analyze the temporal variability and spatial distribution of air temperature. The results are as follows. (1) The mean annual air temperature, the minimum and the maximum temperature exhibited unanimously fluctuating increasing trend with the rates of 0.35℃/decade, 0.27℃/decade, 0.47℃/decade, respectively. (2) The variation trend of seasonal mean temperature, the maximum and the minimum temperature showed an upward trend, and the most significant increase occurred in winter. (3) From the point of view on the inter-decadal mean temperature, the maximum and the minimum temperature variation, the trend of temperature rise in 2000-2014 was lower than that of 1990-1999, which did not mean that global warming had stagnated, was caused by external force of nature. (4) The Hurst index of air temperature was 0.5 < H < 1, which indicated that the variation trend of temperature was the same as that of the past temperature. (5) The variation trend of the mean annual air temperature and seasonal mean temperature presented the upward trend in most of the meteorological stations, the most meteorological stations passed the significance test, however, the diversity of spatial distribution of the variation trend of inter-decadal mean temperature was significantly different.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2017-06-30;改回日期:2017-07-15。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41361005）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0404304）
作者简介:曹广超(1971-),男,山东苍山人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事青藏高原地区环境变化与地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail:caoguangchao@126.com
通讯作者:付建新(1980-),男,山西大同人,博士研究生,研究方向:环境地表过程与生态响应研究。E-mail:fujx@163.con

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01