[1]张维诚,许朗.基于ArcGIS的河南省夏玉米旱灾承灾体脆弱性研究[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(02):228-234.
　ZHANG Weicheng,XU Lang.Study on Drought Vulnerability of Summer Maize in He’nan Province Based on ArcGIS[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):228-234.
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基于ArcGIS的河南省夏玉米旱灾承灾体脆弱性研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 25 期数: 2018年02期 页码: 228-234 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-04-03
Title:
Study on Drought Vulnerability of Summer Maize in He’nan Province Based on ArcGIS
作者:
张维诚1, 许朗1,2
1. 南京农业大学 经济管理学院, 南京 210095;
2. 南京农业大学 中国粮食安全研究中心, 南京 210095
Author(s):
ZHANG Weicheng1, XU Lang1,2
1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;
2. China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
关键词:
夏玉米; 干旱脆弱性; ArcGIS; 河南省
Keywords:
summer maize; drought vulnerability; ArcGIS; He’nan Province
分类号:
S166
摘要:
利用河南省23个气象站1971-2014年44 a的逐日气象数据和气象站点所在县市夏玉米产量、种植面积等资料，基于IPCC对于脆弱性的定义，从物理暴露性、孕灾环境敏感性和适应能力3个因子出发，建立了河南地区夏玉米干旱脆弱性评估模型，借助ArcGIS软件对河南地区夏玉米干旱脆弱性进行了分析与区划研究。结果表明：高与较高脆弱区主要分布于豫西、豫南西北和豫中部分地区，南阳盆地以及东部黄淮海平原为中低干旱脆弱区；从脆弱性的构成要素来看，豫西地区干旱危险性程度较高，夏玉米播种比例和孕灾环境敏感性高于全省平均水平，同时适应能力又相对较弱，因此该区域应着重加大区域防灾减灾投入、优化种植结构；经检验干旱脆弱性指数与年均相对气象产量显著相关，相关系数为-0.578（在0.01检验水平上显著）。所构建的模型能较为合理地反映干旱对夏玉米生产的影响，该研究为夏玉米避灾和减灾提供科学依据。
Abstract:
Based on IPCC definition of vulnerability, a risk assessment model of summer maize vulnerability to drought was established from the perspectives of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability by using the data of weather,planting area and yield of summer maize of 23 stations in He’nan Province, and summer maize vulnerability was zoned and analyzed by ArcGIS. The result showed that high and sub high drought vulnerability zones of summer maize were mainly located in west He’nan,northwest of south He’nan and parts of central He’nan, the medium and low zones were mainly located in Nanyang Basin and eastern plain of He’nan. From the three elements of vulnerability, west He’nan belongs to the weak zone. In west He’nan, the drought dangerousness index, sowing ratio of summer maize and environmental sensitivity are higher than those of the whole province, meanwhile, adaptability is relatively weak. Therefore, the region should focus on regional disaster prevention and mitigation investment, optimizing the planting structure. The drought vulnerability index and average relative meteorological yield are significantly correlated after testing, the correlation coefficient is -0.578. The model constructed in this paper can reflect the influence of drought on summer maize production. The results can provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and disaster reduction management.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2017-7-24;改回日期:2017-8-7。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（71573126）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（13&ZD160）
作者简介:张维诚(1993-),男,江苏吴江人,硕士研究生,研究方向为环境经济、气候变化与粮食生产。E-mail:15850737478@163.com
通讯作者:许朗(1961-),男,江苏扬州人,博士,教授,主要从事农业经济管理研究。E-mail:xulang@njau.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01