WU Nan,ZHANG Yongfu,LI Rui.Ecological Risk Analysis and Prediction of Land Use in Arid Valley Based on Landscape Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):207-212.
基于景观指数的干旱区河谷县域土地利用生态风险分析及预测
- Title:
- Ecological Risk Analysis and Prediction of Land Use in Arid Valley Based on Landscape Index
- Keywords:
- land use; remote sensing image; ecological risk; Tekes County; arid valley
- 分类号:
- X826;F301.2
- 摘要:
- 在ArcGIS技术支持下，利用特克斯县2008年和2015年的遥感影像数据，得出了2008-2015年特克斯县土地利用结构变化情况，通过灰色预测模型预测了2020年的土地利用结构变化，建立了土地利用与LUCC的关系并构造了生态风险指数ERI，分析了特克斯县土地利用生态风险动态演变和时空差异。结果表明：（1）2008-2015年特克斯县耕地、园地、林地、建设用地、交通用地呈增加趋势，其中建设用地增加1 075.25 hm2。而牧草地、水域和其他用地有明显的下降，其中牧草地减少5 104.39 hm2。通过预测分析得到2015-2010年耕地、建设用地和交通用地明显增加，其中建设用地增加182.91 hm2。牧草地和其他用地明显减少，其中牧草地减少1 992.88 hm2。园地、林地和水域变化不明显面积几乎没发生变化。（2）研究区土地利用生态风险指数在2008-2015年由0.025增长到0.029，由于生态环境的持续恶化，2015-2020年生态指数由0.029增长到0.035。综上所述，特克斯县的生态安全问题需引起政府的关注。
- Abstract:
- Under the support of ArcGIS technology, changes in land use structure of Tekes County from 2008 to 2015 can be seen by using the remote sensing image data in 2008 and 2015 of the Tekes County, and the change of land use structure in 2020 is predicted through the grey forecasting model, the relationship between the land use structure and LUCC is established, and the ERI ecological risk index is built, The dynamic evolution and spatial differences of land use ecological risk in Tekes county are analyzed. The results showed that:(1) the cultivated land, garden land, forestland, construction land and transportation land were increasing from 2008 to 2015, and the construction land increased by 1 075.25 hm2; grassland, water and other land use decreased significantly, grassland decreased by 5 104.39 hm2; the cultivated land, construction land and traffic land increased significantly from 2015 to 2010, and the construction land increased by 182.91 hm2; grassland and other land use significantly reduced, grassland reduced by 1 992.88 hm2; the area changes of garden land, forest land and water were not obvious; (2) the ecological risk index of land use in the study area rose from 0.025 in 2008 to 0.029 in 2015, and the ecological index rose from 0.029 in 2015 to 0.035 in 2020 due to the continued deterioration of the ecological environment. To sum up, the ecological security problems in Tekes County should be paid attention by the government.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-4-11;改回日期:2017-5-3。
基金项目:特克斯县国土资源局“新疆特克斯县土地利用总体规划调整完善（2010—2020年）项目”（TKSXZFCG）
作者简介:吴楠(1993-),女,新疆伊宁人,硕士研究生,研究方向为国土资源信息科技。E-mail:594417997@qq.com
通讯作者:张永福(1965-),男,新疆乌鲁木齐人,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事国土资源评价研究。E-mail:zyf431@sina.com