[1]徐慧,张方敏,黄进.江苏省1961-2012年干湿时空变化及对单季稻产量的潜在影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):250-254,261.
　XU Hui,ZHANG Fangmin,HUANG Jin.Spatiotemporal Variation of Dryness/Wetnessin Jiangsu Province During 1961-2012 and Its Possible Impacts on Single-Crop Rice Yield[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):250-254,261.
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江苏省1961-2012年干湿时空变化及对单季稻产量的潜在影响

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年06期 页码: 250-254,261 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-11-24
Title:
Spatiotemporal Variation of Dryness/Wetnessin Jiangsu Province During 1961-2012 and Its Possible Impacts on Single-Crop Rice Yield
作者:
徐慧1, 张方敏2, 黄进2
1. 南京市环境保护科学研究院, 南京 210013;
2. 南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院, 南京 210044
Author(s):
XU Hui1, ZHANG Fangmin2, HUANG Jin2
1. Nanjing Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210013, China;
2. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
关键词:
干湿变化; 江苏省; 单季稻; 标准化降水指数
Keywords:
dryness/wetness variability; Jiangsu; single-crop rice; SPI
分类号:
P426.615
摘要:
利用江苏省地区52个气象站1961-2012年逐月降水量资料及单季稻产量逐年数据，计算了1个月尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI），分析了研究区干湿变化与产量的潜在联系。全省尺度上单季稻生育期各月SPI的趋势检验结果表明江苏省6-8月3个月呈现变湿润趋势，其中8月份偏涝态势尤为显著；而5月、9月、10月3个月呈现变干旱趋势，其中9月份偏旱态势尤为显著。站点尺度上各月干湿变化趋势与全省尺度的结果基本一致，值得关注的是8月呈显著变湿和9月呈显著变干的站点大都分布在苏南地区。全省尺度上单季稻产量与生育期各月SPI的相关分析结果表明在7-10月4个月中，江苏省气候越湿润，则对单季稻产量越不利。站点尺度上的结果表明江苏省单季稻产量与SPI的相关性有着明显的地域差异，其中苏南地区的单季稻种植对气候干湿变化更为敏感，特别是7月、8月、10月3个月偏多的雨涝事件将会显著影响苏南地区的产量。
Abstract:
Based on the data of monthly precipitation and single-crop rice yield at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961-2012, the Standardized Precipitation Indexes (SPI) on the 1-month scale were calculated, and the possible relationship between dryness/wetness variability and rice yield was explored. On the provincial scale, the trend test for the SPI in different month during growing periods of single-crop rice indicated that June, July, August had wetting tendency, and the wetting tendency in August was more obvious; however, May, September, October had drying tendency, and the wetting tendency in September was more obvious. The changing tendency of dryness/wetness variability on the station scale was consistent with the results on the provincial scale, and it should be pointed out that the stations with significant wetting tendency in August and drying tendency in September were distributed in south Jiangsu. On the provincial scale, the correlation analyses between the of single-crop rice yield and SPI in different months during growing periods indicated that the wetter the climate in July, August, September, and October was, the lower the yield was. The results on the station scale indicated that the correlation between the single-crop rice yield and SPI had obvious regional difference, the single-crop rice in south Jiangsu was more sensitive to dryness/wetness variability, and the abundant rainfall events would have obvious impacts on the yield.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2017-05-15;改回日期:2017-05-23。
基金项目:江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目（16KJB170008）：江苏省水稻气象灾害的风险评价及未来情景预估
作者简介:徐慧(1986-),女,江苏泗阳人,工程师,硕士,研究方向:环境生态,气象生态。E-mail:xuhuisafe@sina.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01