[1]徐冬平,李同昇,薛小杰,等.北方农牧交错区不同农牧用地格局下的可持续发展研究——以内蒙古通辽市为例[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(01):219-225.
　XU Dongping,LI Tongsheng,XUE Xiaojie,et al.Research on Sustainable Development of Different Agricultural and Pastoral Land Use Patterns in Northern Farming-pasturing Interlaced Areas—Taking Tongliao City of Inner Mongolia as an Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(01):219-225.
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北方农牧交错区不同农牧用地格局下的可持续发展研究——以内蒙古通辽市为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年01期 页码: 219-225 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-02-28
Title:
Research on Sustainable Development of Different Agricultural and Pastoral Land Use Patterns in Northern Farming-pasturing Interlaced Areas—Taking Tongliao City of Inner Mongolia as an Example
作者:
徐冬平1,2,3, 李同昇1, 薛小杰2,3, 朱记伟2,3
1. 西北大学 城市与环境学院, 西安 710127;
2. 西安理工大学 土木建筑工程学院, 西安 710048;
3. 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室, 西安 710048
Author(s):
XU Dongping1,2,3, LI Tongsheng1, XUE Xiaojie2,3, ZHU Jiwei2,3
1. College of Urban and Environment Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering and Archtecture, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Ecological Water Conservancy in the Northwest Arid Area, Xi’an 710048, China
关键词:
北方农牧交错区; 农牧格局; 可持续发展; 通辽市; 系统动力学; AHP法
Keywords:
farming-pasturing interlaced areas; agriculture and animal husbandry patter; sustainable development; Tongliao City; system dynamics; analytic hierarchy process
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
为了更好地实现北方农牧交错地区的可持续发展，以通辽市为例，对影响农牧交错地区可持续发展的关键问题——农牧用地格局问题进行了科学的预测与评估，进而提出适宜农牧交错地区可持续发展的农牧发展格局。在分析国内关于农牧交错区可持续发展研究成果的基础上，遴选了系统动力学可适性强的可持续发展评价指标，利用AHP法确定指标权重，进一步运行系统动力学模型，得到通辽市不同农牧发展格局下的仿真结果，运用综合评价模型对其结果进行评价和优选。研究认为，农牧用地比例关系是制约农牧交错地区可持续发展的关键性问题，就通辽市而言“牧业主导发展格局”为其可持续发展的最佳格局，但不是目前最适合的发展格局；建议近期采用“农牧均衡发展格局”，远期采用“牧业优化发展格局”。文章不仅提出了支撑通辽市可持续发展农牧发展格局，而且为农牧交错区的可持续发展提供了有益的理论研究。
Abstract:
To better achieve sustainable development in northern farming-pasturing interlaced areas, Tongliao City was taken as a case to discuss scientific evaluation and predict the agricultural and pastoral land use pattern which is the key issue affecting sustainable development of farming-pasturing interlaced areas. An appropriate farming-pasturing development model for promoting sustainable development in farming-pasturing interlaced areas was presented. After an analysis of the research results on sustainable development in farming-pasturing interlaced areas in China, evaluation indexes which are highly applicable in system dynamics were selected, and analytic hierarchy process was adopted to determine the weight of each index. Moreover, the model of system dynamics was operated to get simulation results of Tongliao City under different agricultural and pastoral development patterns, and the comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate and select the simulation results. Following conclusions are drawn. The proportional relation of the agricultural and pastoral land use is the key issue affecting sustainable development of farming-pasturing interlaced areas. For Tongliao, the ‘pasture-dominant development pattern’ is the best one for its sustainable development, but not the most suitable one in the present situation. Lastly, we also recommend that Tongliao should adopt the ‘farming-pasturing balanced development pattern’ in the short term, and the ‘pasture optimized development pattern’ in the long term. Through this research, we not only put forward a development pattern supporting sustainable development of Tongliao City, but also provides a useful theoretical basis for sustainable development of farming-pasturing interlaced areas.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-06-09;改回日期:2016-07-07。
基金项目:水利部公益项目“半干旱区水循环与水生态安全关键技术研究”（201501031）；国家自然科学基金“面向生态城市的水土资源利用格局变化机制及适应性调控研究”（51479160）
作者简介:徐冬平(1978-),男,吉林松原人,博士生,讲师,研究方向:区域经济与可持续发展。E-mail:379821411@qq.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01