HOU Lipeng,ZHAO Rongqin,LIU Ying,et al.Carbon Emission Pressure and Its Prediction of Zhengzhou City Based on Carbon Budget Estimation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):207-212,219.
基于碳收支核算的郑州市碳排放压力分析及预测
- Title:
- Carbon Emission Pressure and Its Prediction of Zhengzhou City Based on Carbon Budget Estimation
- 分类号:
- X502
- 摘要:
- 区域碳收支核算是全球气候变化研究的关键内容。城市碳收支核算不仅有助于建立区域碳平衡分析的理论框架，而且对于区域温室气体清单编制及低碳发展模式的选择也具有十分重要的意义。以郑州市为例，在对碳收支及碳排放压力进行核算分析的基础上，采用线性回归方法和最小二乘法对郑州市2030年的碳排放进行了预测研究，并提出了郑州市低碳城市发展的政策建议。主要结论如下：（1）郑州市碳收支呈明显不匹配现象，碳排放总量及其增速明显超过了碳吸收。其中，能源活动和农作物分别是主要的碳源和碳汇途径，两者各占碳排放/吸收比重的80%以上；（2）郑州市碳排放强度呈下降趋势。这表明，随着节能减排和区域发展模式的转型，区域碳排放效率明显提升；但总体而言，郑州市经济增长与碳排放的关系处于弱脱钩状态，经济发展仍然依赖于能源消耗及碳排放增长；（3）预测发现，2030年碳排放量虽比2012年大幅度增长，但碳排放效率逐渐提升，预期碳排放增长率不断下降。
- Abstract:
- Urban carbon budget estimation is one of the key topics of the study on global climate change. Carrying out the carbon budget estimation of cities not only helps build the theoretical framework of regional carbon balance analysis,but also has great significance for the compilation of regional greenhouse gas inventory and the choice of low-carbon development pattern. Zhengzhou City was chosen as an example and the carbon emissions in the year 2030 was predicted by adopting the liner regression method and the least squre method.The low-carbon urban development policy suggestions were put forward on the basis of urban carbon budget study. The main conclusion are as follows. (1) The carbon emission and the carbon sink were not matching obviously. The carbon emission and its growth rate were significantly more than the carbon sink. Among them, the energy activities and the crops were the main source of carbon emission and carbon sink, respectively, and both of which accounted for more than 80% of the emission/sink. (2) The carbon intensity of Zhengzhou presented the decline trend, suggesting that carbon intensity improved significantly along with the implementation of policies of the energy conservation and emission reduction and the transformation of the regional pattern of development. However, the economic growth and the carbon emission were in the weak decoupling state and the development of economic still relied on the consumption of energy and the emission of carbon. (3) According to the prediction we find that there will be a substantial increase of the carbon emission in 2030 compared with the emissions of 2012, but the carbon efficiency will enhance gradually and the expected emission growth rate will decline.
参考文献/References:
[1] Pearce F. Climate change:Menace or myth?[J]. New Scientist, 2005(2486):38-43.
[2] Allen M R, Frame D J, Huntingford C, et al. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne[J]. Nature,2009,458(7242):1163-1166.
[3] 方精云,朱江玲,王少鹏,等.全球变暖,碳排放及不确定性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2011,41(10):1385-1395.
[4] 朱永彬,王铮,庞丽,等.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测[J].地理学报,2009,64(8):935-944.
[5] 刘燕华,葛全胜,何凡能,等.应对国际CO2减排压力的途径及我国减排潜力分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(7):675-682.
[6] Joos F, Kaplan J, Kicklighter D W, et al. Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century:Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2001,15(1):183-206.
[7] 王绍强,周成虎,刘纪远,等.东北地区陆地碳循环平衡模拟分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(4):390-400.
[8] Nowak D J, Crane D E. Carbon storage and sequestration by urban trees in the USA[J]. Environmental Pollution, 2002,116(3):381-389.
[9] Nowak D J. Atmospheric carbon reduction by urban trees[J]. Journal of environmental management, 1993,37(3):207-217.
[10] Koerner B, Klopatek J. Anthropogenic and natural CO2 em-ission sources in an arid urban environment[J]. Environmental Pollution, 2002,116:45-51.
[11] Jo H K. Impacts of urban greenspace on offsetting carbon emissions for middle Korea[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2002,64(2):115-126.
[12] Escobedo F, Varela S, Zhao M, et al. Analyzing the efficacy of subtropical urban forests in offsetting carbon emissions from cities[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2010,13(5):362-372.
[13] Marchi M, Jorgensen S E, Pulselli F M, et al. Modelling the carbon cycle of Siena Province (Tuscany, central Italy)[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012,225:40-60.
[14] Bullock S H, Escoto-Rodríguez M, Smith S V, et al. Carbon flux of an urban system in Mexico[J]. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2011,15(4):512-526.
[15] Christen A, Coops N C, Kellett R, et al. A LiDAR-based urban metabolism approach to neighbourhood scale energy and carbon emissions modelling[D]. Canada:University of British Columbia,2010.
[16] 钱杰.大都市碳源碳汇研究:以上海市为例[D].上海:华东师范大学,2004.
[17] 马巾英,尹锴,吝涛.城市复合生态系统碳氧平衡分析:以沿海城市厦门为例[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1808-1816.
[18] 张颖,王群,李边疆,等.应用碳氧平衡法测算生态用地需求量实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2008,21(6):23-28.
[19] Zhao M, Kong Z, Escobedo F J, et al. Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2010,91(4):807-813.
[20] 赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋.中国不同产业空间的碳排放强度与碳足迹分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(9):1048-1057.
[21] 赵荣钦,黄贤金,高珊,等.江苏省碳排放清单测算及减排潜力分析[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(2):109-115.
[22] 孙建卫,陈志刚,赵荣钦,等.基于投入产出分析的中国碳排放足迹研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(5):28-34.
[23] 谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1729-1735.
[24] 赖力,黄贤金,刘伟良,等.基于投入产出技术的区域生态足迹调整分析:以2002年江苏为例[J].生态学报,2006,26(4):1285-1292.
[25] 赵荣钦,刘英,郝仕龙,等.低碳土地利用模式研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(5):190-194.
[26] 刘英,赵荣钦,焦士兴.河南省土地利用碳源/汇及其变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(5):154-157.
[27] 赵荣钦.城市系统碳循环及土地调控研究[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2012.
[28] 庄贵阳.低碳经济:气候变化背景下中国的发展之路[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
相似文献/References:
[1]裴会敏,许明祥,李强,等.侵蚀条件下土壤有机碳流失研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):269.
PEI Hui-min,XU Ming-xiang,LI Qiang,et al.Advances in Soil Organic Carbon Losses under Erosion[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):269.
[2]王安周,张桂宾,耿秀丽.1988-2002年郑州市景观格局演变分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(02):190.
WANG An-zhou,ZHANG Gui-bin,GENG Xiu-li.Research on Urban Landscape Dynamics of Zhengzhou City during 1988-2002[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(02):190.
[3]刘德林.郑州市近60年来降水变化特征及突变分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(05):236.
LIU De-lin.Variation Characteristics and Abrupt Change Analysis of Precipitation in Zhengzhou City over the Last 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(02):236.
[4]刘德林.郑州市年降水量的ARIMA模型预测[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(06):249.
LIU De-lin.Annual Precipitation Forecasting of Zhengzhou City Based on ARIMA Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(02):249.
[5]吴宝军,雷雅凯,段彦博,等.基于马尔科夫模型的郑州市城市热岛效应分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(03):241.
WU Baojun,LEI Yakai,DUAN Yanbo,et al.Assessment and Prediction of Urban Heat Island Effect in Zhengzhou City Based on Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(02):241.
[6]雷雅凯,彭丹丹,张淑梅,等.郑州绿地雨水资源有效利用途径研究[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(04):173.
LEI Yakai,PENG Dandan,ZHANG Shumei,et al.Efficient Utilization Ways of Rainwater Resources in Greenland of Zhengzhou[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(02):173.
[7]王俊岭,杨雅萍,杨飞,等.郑州市土地可持续利用的模拟与评价[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(03):84.
WANG Jun-ling,YANG Ya-ping,YANG Fei,et al.Simulation and Evaluation of Sustainable Land Use in Zhengzhou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(02):84.
[8]高奇,师学义,王子凌,等.深圳市碳收支与土地利用变化的协整分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):277.
GAO Qi,SHI Xue-yi,WANG Zi-ling,et al.Co-integration Analysis between Carbon Budget and Land Use Change in Shenzhen City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(02):277.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2015-04-27;改回日期:2015-05-14。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41301633）；河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目（2015-GH-088）；华北水利水电大学大学生创新计划项目（201492）
作者简介:侯丽朋(1991-),女,河南永城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为城市碳排放和可持续发展。E-mail:1589330278@qq.com
通讯作者:赵荣钦(1978-),男,河南孟津人,博士后,副教授,主要从事土地利用与碳排放研究。E-mail:zhaorq234@163.com