ZHAO Xi-jun,SONG Jin-ping,WANG Qian.The Process and Forecasting of Spacial-temperal Change in the Urban Fringe—Taking Fengtai District as Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(05):11-14.
城市边缘区土地利用时空变化过程及预测研究——以北京丰台区为例
- Title:
- The Process and Forecasting of Spacial-temperal Change in the Urban Fringe—Taking Fengtai District as Example
- Keywords:
- urban fringe; land use change; forecast; Fengtai district
- 分类号:
- F293.2
- 摘要:
- 进入高速城市化发展阶段，城市边缘区是地域上集中体现这一变化的重要景观。在遥感解译和GIS技术支持下，确定了北京城市边缘区范围，丰台区部分地域位居其中；进而采用统计分析技术对1992年以来的丰台区土地利用变化历史过程及空间特征进行了分析，结果表明，农用地成为其他用地的重要补给来源，建设用地补给来源是全方位的，并且土地利用结构在空间上呈现明显的圈层结构，土地利用程度随着时间的推移明显加强。最后，利用马尔可夫模型对丰台区未来10 a的土地利用结构及空间发展走向进行了预测，得出农业用地转化幅度将逐渐减小，直到达到相对稳定状态，河东地区将是近期土地利用结构转移的焦点。
- Abstract:
- Urban fringe is an important landscape which embodies acute changes of urban land structure in the stage of high speed urbanization. With the aid of RS and GIS, the urban fringe of Beijing city is confirmed, and part of Fengtai district is included. The spatial-temperal change character of Fengtai district land use has been analyzed with statistic analysis methods since 1992. It is concluded that the farming land use has been important supply source of other land use, and the supply source building land use is all kinds, and the land use distributing takes on obvious circle structure, and the extent of land use has been strengthened with the time going on. At last, the land use structure and spatial trend have been forecasted with Markvo model in the coming decade. It is found that the extent of the farming land use will slow down until reaching relative stabilization state, the area to the east of Yongding River will be the focus of land use change in the near future.
参考文献/References:
[1] 陈浮,陈刚,包浩生,等.城市边缘区土地利用变化及人文驱动力机制研究[J].自然资源学报,2001,21(3) 204-209.
[2] Turner Ⅱ B L,David S,Steven S.Land use and land cover change:Science/Research planning[R] IGBP Reports No.35,Stockholm,1995.
[3] 王思远,刘纪远,张增祥.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[4] 史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J].地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[5] 韦素琼,陈健飞.福建晋江农村城镇化进程中的土地利用变化分析[J].资源科学,2004,26(4):111-118.
[6] 朱振国,许刚,姚士谋.大城市边缘区城市化进程的实证分析:以南京江宁区为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2003,19(3):76-79.
[7] 刘盛和,吴传钧,沈洪泉.基于GIS的北京市土地利用扩展模式[J].地理学报,2000,55(4):407-416.
[8] 黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的元胞自动机及模拟复杂土地利用系统[J].地理研究,2005,24(1):19-27.
[9] Setokc K.Modeling the drivers of urban land use chan-ge in the Pearl River Delta,China: Integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data[J].Land Economics,2003,79(1):106-121.
[10] 魏伟,周婕.中国大城市边缘区的概念辨析及其划分[J].人文地理,2006,90(4):29-33.
[11] 彭文甫,何政伟,周介铭,等.1996-2002年成都市土地利用变化分析[J].四川师范大学学报:自然科学版,2007,30(1):106-111.
[12] 马玉妍,于兵,孙雪梅.基于GIS的大庆市土地利用变化趋势预测[J].哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报,2006 22(4):93-97.
相似文献/References:
[1]张云鹏,孙燕,王小丽,等.不同尺度下的土地利用变化驱动力研究——以常州市新北区为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):111.
ZHANG Yun-peng,SUN Yan,WANG Xiao-li,et al.Study on the Driving Force of Land Use Change at Differernt Scales-A Case Study of the Xinbei District of Changzhou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):111.
[2]谭君,李世平.铜川市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):131.
TAN Jun,LI Shi-ping.Analysis on Impacts of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Service Value in Tongchuan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):131.
[3]麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,海米提·依米提,组皮艳木·买买提,等.焉耆盆地土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):137.
Mamattursun·Eziz,Hamid·Yimit,Zulpiya·Mamat,et al.Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Yanqi Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):137.
[4]侯兰功,乔标.北京市城市扩张及其生态效应研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):193.
HOU Lan-gong,QIAO Biao.Study on Urban Expansion and Its Ecological Effect in Beijing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):193.
[5]章后甜,杜会石,王世东,等.长白山地区土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):242.
ZHANG Hou-tian,DU Hui-shi,WANG Shi-dong,et al.Study on the Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value in Changbai Mountain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):242.
[6]申建秀,王秀红,刘羽,等.退耕还林前后甘肃正宁县生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):59.
SHEN Jian-xiu,WANG Xiu-hong,LIU Yu,et al.Spatio-temporal Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in Zhengning County, Gansu Province before and after the ‘Grain-for-Green’ Policy[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):59.
[7]陈颖,石培基,潘竟虎,等.高原生态城土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究——以甘肃省民乐县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):154.
CHEN Ying,SHI Pei-ji,PAN Jing-hu,et al.Analysis on the Effect of Land-use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in the Plateau Eco-city——A Case Study of Minle County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):154.
[8]谢余初,巩杰,赵彩霞,等.干旱区绿洲土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值响应——以甘肃省金塔县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):165.
XIE Yu-chu,GONG Jie,ZHAO Cai-xia,et al.Responses of Oasis Ecological Service Value to Land Use Change in Arid Area——A Case Study of Jinta County, Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):165.
[9]鄢铁平,廖炜,李璐,等.丹江口库区土地利用结构与格局优化[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):11.
YAN Tie-ping,LIAO Wei,LI Lu,et al.Optimization of Land Use Structure and Spatial Pattern for the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):11.
[10]柯新利,韩冰华,刘蓉霞,等.1990年以来武汉城市圈土地利用变化时空特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):76.
KE Xin-li,HAN Bing-hua,LIU Rong-xia,et al.Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Change in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Since 1990[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(05):76.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2007-8-24。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助（40571040）
作者简介:赵西君（1979- ），男，山东泰安人，博士研究生，主要从事区域经济与区域规划研究。E-mail：xijunlx@126.com