LI Xiao-yue,ZHAI Guo-jing.Method of Multi-variate Rainstorm-flood Risk Analyses[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(01):8-10.
多变量洪水风险分析方法
- Title:
- Method of Multi-variate Rainstorm-flood Risk Analyses
- Keywords:
- multi-variate; flood risk analysis; fuzzy set theory; compound probability model; flood-control calculation
- 分类号:
- P333.2
- 摘要:
- 分析了洪水特征值的不同频率性和现行的单因素防洪风险分析方法的片面性。从组合事件的概率理论出发，利用“完全相关”与“相互独立”两种特殊情况，采用模糊集理论，建立了二参数加权组合概率模型。模型中不仅考虑了洪峰和洪量对洪水风险的共同作用，而且避免了确定条件概率分布的问题，为在现有的洪水资料的情况下，合理估计防洪风险及进行防洪水利计算，提供了一种简单可操作性方法。
- Abstract:
- The nonidentity of the rainstorm-flood eigenvalues in the probability and disadvantage of currently mono-variant method of the flood risk analysis are analyzed.Based on probability theory about combined event,by dint of two special events such as "absolute correlation" and "inter-independence",the bi-variate weighted compound probability model is established by means of fuzzy set theory.In the present model,not only the complex effects for flood peak and flood total discharge to the flood risk are considered,but also the problem of researching conditional probability distribution is avoided.A practical method that reasonably estimate flood risk with limited flood information is provided.
参考文献/References:
[1] Sackl B Bergmann H.A Bivariate Flood Model and Its Application[A].In:Sing V P(ed).Hydrologic Frequency Modeling[C].Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses,Baton Rouge USA.1986.571-582.
[2] 冯平,崔广涛,胡明罡.暴雨洪水共同作用下的多变量防洪计算问题[J].水利学报,2000,(2):49-53.
[3] 中山大学数学力学系《概率论及数理统计》编写小组.概率论及数理统计(上册)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1980.119-125.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2005-1-23;
作者简介:李晓粤（1965- ），女，副教授，硕士，研究方向：环境保护与可持续发展.