Zheng Ruolin,Geng Guangpo,Deng Tiantian.Probability assessment of impacts of high-temperature and drought events on vegetation growth in Weihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(06):258-269.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.027]
渭河流域高温干旱对植被生长影响的概率评估
- Title:
- Probability assessment of impacts of high-temperature and drought events on vegetation growth in Weihe River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）06-0258-12
- Keywords:
- high temperature; drought; Weihe River Basin; vegetation; impact assessment
- 分类号:
- P429； P954
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的] 揭示渭河流域高温干旱时空变化特征，定量评估高温干旱对渭河流域植被生长的影响，为应对气候变化并有效开展防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。[方法] 基于1980—2020年渭河流域最高温、降水和NDVI数据，结合趋势分析、相关分析和元高斯模型等，计算标准化温度指数（STI）和标准化降水指数（SPI），分析高温干旱的时空分布特征，并量化不同高温干旱条件下植被活动下降的概率。[结果] 渭河流域近40年高温和干旱趋势明显，特别是东南部关中平原和北部黄土高原地区升温显著，而西部和北部则经历了较为严重的干旱化，总体来看，高温事件较为频繁。温度对植被生长的反馈效应在不同区域表现不同，流域中部温度升高有助于植被生长，而东南部则呈负反馈作用。超过80%的区域植被与降水呈正相关，降水增多促进植被生长。灌溉区对高温更敏感，而雨养区和草地的植被则受降水变化影响更大。随着高温干旱条件的加剧，渭河流域植被活动下降概率显著增加，高温（干旱）条件从轻微增强至中度和重度时，植被活动下降概率分别增加4%（8%）和11%（16%），复合高温干旱条件对植被影响最大，草地和雨养区表现出更强的敏感性，凸显了复合气候事件的综合效应，尤其在草地生态系统中尤为明显。[结论] 渭河流域近40年高温和干旱均趋于严重，流域随着高温干旱条件的增强，植被活动下降概率明显增加，尤其是流域北部黄土高原地区，复合高温干旱事件对植被的影响较单一气候事件更为严重。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] To reveal the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of high-temperature and drought events in the Weihe River Basin, quantitatively assess their impacts on vegetation growth, and provide a scientific basis for coping with climate change and effectively carrying out disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. [Methods] Using data from 1980 to 2020, including maximum temperature, precipitation, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the Weihe River Basin, this study employed trend analysis, correlation analysis, and meta-Gaussian model to calculate the Standardized Temperature Index (STI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of high-temperature and drought events were analyzed, and the probabilities of vegetation activity decline under different high-temperature and drought conditions were quantified. [Results] Over the past 40 years, pronounced trends of high temperature and drought were observed, with notable temperature rise in the southeastern Guanzhong Plain and the northern Loess Plateau, while relatively severe droughts occurred in the west and north. Overall, high-temperature events were more frequent. The feedback effects of temperature on vegetation growth varied across different regions. In the central part of the river basin, rising temperatures contributed to vegetation growth, while negative feedback effects were observed in the southeast. Over 80% of the region showed positive correlations between vegetation and precipitation, and increased precipitation promoted vegetation growth. Irrigated areas were more sensitive to high temperature, while vegetation in rain-fed areas and grasslands was more influenced by precipitation variations. As high-temperature and drought conditions intensified, the probability of vegetation activity decline in the Weihe River Basin increased significantly. When high temperature(drought) conditions escalated from mild to moderate and severe levels, the probability of vegetation activity decline rose by 4%(8%) and 11%(16%), respectively. Compound high-temperature and drought conditions had the greatest impact on vegetation, and grasslands and rain-fed areas exhibited stronger sensitivity. This highlighted the combined effects of compound climate events, particularly evident in grassland ecosystems. [Conclusion] Over the past 40 years, hightemperature and drought conditions in the Weihe River Basin have intensified. As high-temperature and drought conditions strengthen in the river basin, the probability of vegetation activity decline significantly increases, particularly in the northern Loess Plateau region where compound high-temperature and drought events exert more severe impacts on vegetation than single climate events.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2024-12-31 修回日期：2025-02-24 接受日期：2025-03-25
资助项目：国家自然科学基金（41807503）；陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项（2025YB0239）
第一作者：郑若琳（2000—），女，陕西渭南人，硕士研究生，研究方向为灾害遥感应用。E-mail：13369169380@163.com
通信作者：耿广坡（1986—），男，河南浚县人，博士，副教授，主要从事区域环境变化与灾害遥感研究。E-mail：gengguangpo@xust.edu.cn