She Huan,Li Peng,Li Juan,et al.Evaluation of agricultural sustainable development and analysis of its driving factors in Yellow River Ω-shaped bend region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(05):411-422.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.05.044]
黄河几字湾地区农业可持续发展评价及其驱动因素分析
- Title:
- Evaluation of agricultural sustainable development and analysis of its driving factors in Yellow River Ω-shaped bend region
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）05-0411-12
- Keywords:
- Yellow River Ω-shaped bend region; agriculture; sustainable development; driving factors; emergy
- 分类号:
- S181； X22； F124.5
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的] 评价黄河几字湾地区农业可持续发展水平并探究其驱动因素，为区域农业可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法] 采用能值分析法，系统评估了2000—2020年黄河几字湾地区农业生态经济系统的可持续发展水平。运用LMDI分解模型，研究了可持续发展水平的驱动因素。[结果]（1）研究区农业生态经济系统呈现显著动态变化：可更新环境资源能值波动（均值1.98×1022sej），不可更新资源持续衰减，工业辅助投入上升，可更新有机能下降，作物产量保持增长；（2）可持续发展评估显示，能值产出率（EYR）显著提升，环境负载率（ELR）持续增加，能值可持续指数（ESI）虽转为可持续状态但水平较低；（3）驱动因素分析表明，人口效应是首要驱动因素，经济效应贡献度由负转正，投入结构效应由正转负，土地面积效应影响最小。[结论] 2000—2020年黄河几字湾地区可持续发展水平逐渐上升，驱动因素贡献度从高到低依次为人口效应、经济效应、投入结构效应和土地面积效应。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] This study aims to evaluate the agricultural sustainable development level and explore its driving factors in the Yellow River Ω -shaped bend region, providing scientific basis for regional agricultural sustainable development. [Methods] Emergy analysis was used to systematically assess the sustainable development level of the agricultural eco-economic system in the Yellow River Ω-shaped bend region from 2000 to 2020. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model was applied to explore the driving factors of the sustainable development level. [Results](1) The agricultural eco-economic system in the study area exhibited significant dynamic changes: the emergy value of renewable environmental resources fluctuated (with an average of 1.98×1022 sej), non-renewable resources continuously declined, industrial auxiliary inputs increased, renewable organic emergy decreased, and crop yields continued to grow.(2) Sustainable development evaluation revealed that the emergy yield ratio(EYR) improved significantly, and the environmental loading ratio (ELR) continued to rise. Although the emergy sustainability index (ESI) transitioned to a sustainable state, its development level remained low. (3) Analysis of driving factors indicated that the population effect was the primary driving factor, the contribution of economic effect shifted from negative to positive, the input structure effect shifted from positive to negative, and the effect of land area had the least influence. [Conclusion] The sustainable development level of the Yellow River Ω -shaped bend region gradually increased from 2000 to 2020. The contributing driving factors, in descending order, are population effect, economic effect, input structure effect, and land area effect.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2025-03-02 修回日期：2025-03-10 接受日期：2025-03-20
资助项目：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“黄河几字弯区水土保持与生态治理战略研究（2024-XBZD-11）”；水文变异下基于Coupla函数的黄河中游湿地生态水文演化分析研究（2024JC-YBQN-0306）
第一作者：佘欢（1999—），男，甘肃天水人，硕士研究生，研究方向为生态服务功能。E-mail：17743406126@163.com
通信作者：李鹏（1974—），男，山东烟台人，博士，教授，博士研究生导师，主要从事水土资源与环境方面的研究。E-mail：lipeng74@163.com