Chen Zhen,Zhang Yu,Guo Jie,et al.Scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem service value based on ecological security pattern optimization[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(04):375-385.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.04.017]
基于生态安全格局优化的土地利用及生态系统服务价值情景模拟
- Title:
- Scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem service value based on ecological security pattern optimization
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）04-0375-11
- 分类号:
- F301.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]将区域生态安全格局作为约束条件优化到土地利用及生态系统服务价值情景模拟中，为保障区域生态安全、促进国土空间高质量发展提供参考。[方法]以江苏省宿迁市为例，采用FLUS模型和当量因子法，模拟了2035年不同情景下土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化情况。[结果]研究区低、中、高生态安全格局面积分别为213471.70，340548.34，384726.67hm2，占土地总面积比例为25.03%，39.93%，45.11%；相较其他3种情景，多目标协同情景维持中等水平生态安全、土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化趋势相对较为缓和，耕地年均减少109.79hm2，林地、草地、湿地和水域年均减少量为184.20，8.21，0.70，18.49hm2，建设用地年均增加321.39hm2；生态系统服务价值为566.8954亿元，较2020年仅减少1.9386亿元，下降幅度约为耕地优先和经济优先情景下的1/2。[结论]不同等级生态安全格局对多情景下土地利用及生态系统服务价值具有不同程度的限制作用，多目标协同情景在满足经济发展对建设用地合理需求的同时，对粮食和生态安全尚不构成明显威胁，区域生态系统服务价值虽有所下降，但整体较为稳定，有利于实现经济、社会和生态全面协调可持续发展。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] This study aims to integrate the ecological security pattern into the scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem service value(ESV), providing a reference for ensuring regional ecological security and promoting high-quality territorial spatial development. [Methods] Taking Suqian City of Jiangsu Province as a case study, the FLUS model and equivalent factor method were used to simulate the changes in land use and ESV under different scenarios for 2035. [Results] The areas of low, medium and high ecological security patterns in the study area were 213 471.70, 340 548.34, and 384 726.67 hm2, respectively, accounting for 25.03%, 39.93%, and 45.11% of the total land area. Compared to the other three scenarios, the multi-objective collaborative scenario maintained a moderate level of ecological security, with relatively mild trends in land use and ESV changes. Arable land decreased by an average of 109.79 hm2 per year, while forest land, grassland, wetlands and water areas decreased by an average of 184.20, 8.21, 0.70, and 18.49 hm2 annually, respectively. The area of construction land increased by an average of 321.39 hm2 annually. The total ESV was 56.689 54 billion yuan, representing a reduction of only 193.86 million yuan compared to 2020, which was about half of the decline observed under the arable land priority and economic priority scenarios. [Conclusion] Ecological security patterns at different levels exert varying degrees of constraints on land use and ecosystem service value across multiple scenarios. The multi-objective collaborative scenario, while meeting the reasonable demand for construction land driven by economic development, does not pose a significant threat to food or ecological security. Although the regional ecosystem service value decreases, it remains relatively stable overall, which is conducive to achieving balanced, sustainable development across economic, social, and ecological dimensions.
参考文献/References:
[1] Costanza R，D′Arge R，De Groot R，et al. The value of the world′s ecosystem services and natural capital[J]. Nature，1997，387：253-260.
[2] 傅伯杰，周国逸，白永飞，等.中国主要陆地生态系统服务功能与生态安全[J].地球科学进展，2009，24（6）：571-576. Fu B J，Zhou G Y，Bai Y F，et al. The main terrestrial ecosystem services and ecological security in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science，2009，24（6）：571-576.
[3] Ning J，Liu J Y，Kuang W H，et al. Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of land-use change in China during 2010—2015[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences，2018，28（5）：547-562.
[4] 熊鹰，张方明，龚长安，等. LUCC影响下湖南省生态系统服务价值时空演变[J].长江流域资源与环境，2018，27（6）：1397-1408. Xiong Y，Zhang F M，Gong C A，et al. Spatial-temporal evolvement of ecosystem service value in Hunan Province based on LUCC[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin，2018，27（6）：1397-1408.
[5] 谢高地，张钇锂，鲁春霞，等.中国自然草地生态系统服务价值[J].自然资源学报，2001，16（1）：47-53.Xie G D，Zhang Y L，Lu C X，et al. Study on valuation of rangeland ecosystem services of China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources，2001，16（1）：47-53.
[6] 谢高地，张彩霞，张雷明，等.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进[J].自然资源学报，2015，30（8）：1243-1254. Xie G D，Zhang C X，Zhang L M，et al. Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area[J]. Journal of Natural Resources，2015，30（8）：1243-1254.
[7] 荔琢，蒋卫国，王文杰，等.基于生态系统服务价值的京津冀城市群湿地主导服务功能研究[J].自然资源学报，2019，34（8）：1654-1665. Li Z，Jiang W G，Wang W J，et al. Study on the wetland leading service function of Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration based on the ecosystem service value[J]. Journal of Natural Resources，2019，34（8）：1654-1665.
[8] 张艳春，毛旭锋，魏晓燕，等.湟水国家湿地公园湿地价值及其辐射格局研究[J].生态学报，2022，42（2）：569-580. Zhang Y C，Mao X F，Wei X Y，et al. Wetland value and its radiation pattern of the Huangshui National Wetland Park[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2022，42（2）：569-580.
[9] 管青春，郝晋珉，石雪洁，等.中国生态用地及生态系统服务价值变化研究[J].自然资源学报，2018，33（2）：195-207. Guan Q C，Hao J M，Shi X J，et al. Study on the changes of ecological land and ecosystem service value in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources，2018，33（2）：195-207.
[10] 邓楚雄，钟小龙，谢炳庚，等.洞庭湖区土地生态系统的服务价值时空变化[J].地理研究，2019，38（4）：844-855. Deng C X，Zhong X L，Xie B G，et al. Spatial and temporal changes of land ecosystem service value in Dongting Lake area in 1995—2015[J]. Geographical Research，2019，38（4）：844-855.
[11] 姜晗，吴群.基于LUCC的江苏省生态系统服务价值评估及时空演变特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境，2021，30（11）：2712-2725. Jiang H，Wu Q. Ecological service value evaluation and temporal-spatial evolution characteristics in Jiangsu Province based on LUCC[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin，2021，30（11）：2712-2725.
[12] 丁丽莲，王奇，陈欣，等.近30年淀山湖地区生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应[J].生态学报，2019，39（8）：2973-2985. Ding L L，Wang Q，Chen X，et al. The responses of ecosystem services to land-use change in Dianshan Lake area from 1984 to 2014[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2019，39（8）：2973-2985.
[13] 程静，黄越.宁夏回族自治区生态系统服务价值时空演变及其驱动力[J].水土保持研究，2021，28（2）：382-389. Cheng J，Huang Y. Spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service value and its driving force in Ningxia Hui autonomous region[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation，2021，28（2）：382-389.
[14] 黄贞斌，李红波.武汉城市圈土地利用及生态系统服务价值时空演变多情景模拟[J].长江流域资源与环境，2023，32（12）：2542-2557. Huang Z B，Li H B. Multi-scenario simulation of temporal-spatial evolution of land uses and ecosystem services in Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin，2023，32（12）：2542-2557.
[15] Li C，Wu Y M，Gao B P，et al. Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value for optimization of land use in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological barrier，China[J]. Ecological Indicators，2021，132：108328.
[16] 杨朔，苏昊，赵国平.基于PLUS模型的城市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟：以汉中市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境，2022，36（10）：86-95. Yang S，Su H，Zhao G P. Multi-scenario simulation of urban ecosystem service value based on PLUS model：a case study of Hanzhong City[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2022，36（10）：86-95.
[17] 肖建英，戴津津，方昕然，等.基于PLUS模型的徐州市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟研究[J].中国土地科学，2024，38（4）：125-134. Xiao J Y，Dai J J，Fang X R，et al. Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value in Xuzhou City based on PLUS model[J]. China Land Science，2024，38（4）：125-134.
[18] 金贵，贺念慈，刘志远，等.共享社会经济路径下长江经济带国土空间模拟预测与布局优化[J].生态学报，2024，44（18）：8084-8093. Jin G，He N C，Liu Z Y，et al. Simulation prediction and layout optimization of territorial space in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the shared socio-economic pathways[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2024，44（18）：8084-8093.
[19] 彭建，李慧蕾，刘焱序，等.雄安新区生态安全格局识别与优化策略[J].地理学报，2018，73（4）：701-710. Peng J，Li H L，Liu Y X，et al. Identification and optimization of ecological security pattern in Xiongan New Area[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica，2018，73（4）：701-710.
[20] Cen X T，Wu C F，Xing X S，et al. Coupling intensive land use and landscape ecological security for urban sustainability：an integrated socioeconomic data and spatial metrics analysis in Hangzhou City[J]. Sustainability，2015，7（2）：1459-1482.
[21] Peng J，Pan Y，Liu Y，et al. Linking ecological degradation risk to identify ecological security patterns in a rapidly urbanizing landscape[J]. Habitat International，2018，71（6）：110-124.
[22] 徐智超，刘华民，韩鹏，等.内蒙古生态安全时空演变特征及驱动力[J].生态学报，2021，41（11）：4354-4366. Xu Z C，Liu H M，Han P，et al. Analysis of the characteristics and driving forces of the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological security in Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2021，41（11）：4354-4366.
[23] 刘小琼，何鹏飞，韩继财，等.长江经济带生态安全格局演化及多情景模拟预测[J].经济地理，2023，43（12）：192-203. Liu X Q，He P F，Han J C，et al. Evolution of ecological security pattern of Yangtze river economic belt and its multi-scenario simulation[J]. Economic Geography，2023，43（12）：192-203.
[24] 马世发，劳春华，江海燕.基于生态安全格局理论的国土空间生态修复分区模拟：以粤港澳大湾区为例[J].生态学报，2021，41（9）：3441-3448. Ma S F，Lao C H，Jiang H Y. Ecological restoration zoning of territorial space based on the pattern simulation of eco-security scenario：a case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2021，41（9）：3441-3448.
[25] Zhou D，Song W. Identifying ecological corridors and networks in mountainous areas[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health，2021，18（9）：4797.
[26] 付凤杰，刘珍环，刘海.基于生态安全格局的国土空间生态修复关键区域识别：以贺州市为例[J].生态学报，2021，41（9）：3406-3414. Fu F J，Liu Z H，Liu H. Identifying key areas of ecosystem restoration for territorial space based on ecological security pattern：a case study in Hezhou City[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2021，41（9）：3406-3414.
[27] Yu K J. Security patterns and surface model in landscape ecological planning[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning，1996，36（1）：1-17.
[28] 陈振，郭杰，欧名豪，等.“粮食-生态”双安全约束下建设用地供需多情景模拟：以江苏省南京市为例[J].中国土地科学，2024，38（2）：61-72. Chen Z，Guo J，Ou M H，et al. Multi-scenario simulation of construction land supply and demand under the dual constraints of food and ecology security：a case study of Nanjing city in Jiangsu province[J]. China Land Science，2024，38（2）：61-72.
相似文献/References:
[1]范新军,毕天云.云南边境石漠化地区“三生空间”格局演变及驱动机制[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(06):424.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.011]
Fan Xinjun,Bi Tianyun.Evolution of production-living-ecological space pattern and its driving mechanisms in rocky desertification areas of Yunnan border region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(04):424.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.011]
[2]徐 云,高明坤,张增信.基于InVEST模型的长江中下游地区生境质量变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(05):355.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.032]
Xu Yun,Gao Mingkun,Zhang Zengxin.Land Use Change and Its Impact on Habitat Quality in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on InVEST Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):355.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.032]
[3]孙保平,孙立达.西吉县黄家二岔小流域地表径流和土壤渗透性能的研究[J].水土保持研究,1990,(02):16.
Sun Baoping,Sun Lida.A Research For Soil Permeability and Surface Runoff in Huangjia-Ercha Small Watershed in Xiji County, Ningxia[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1990,(04):16.
[4]赵昭霞,叶树华.渭南地区土地利用现状简析[J].水土保持研究,1992,(02):35.
Zhao Zhaoxia,Yie Shuhua.ANALYSIS OF LAND UTILIZATION OF WEINAN PREFECTURE[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1992,(04):35.
[5]杨勤科,郑粉莉,张竹梅.神木试区土地资源与利用[J].水土保持研究,1993,(02):47.
Yang Qinke,Zheng Fenli,Zhang Zhumei.Land Resources and Its Utilization in the Shenmu Experimental Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1993,(04):47.
[6]张希彪,上官周平.陇东黄土高原土地利用空间格局研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):167.
ZHANG Xi-biao,SHANGGUAN Zhou-ping.Study on the Spatial Pattern of Land-use in Longdong Areas[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):167.
[7]闫岩,雷国平,谢英楠.基于AHP和熵权法的土地利用生态效益研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):134.
YAN Yan,LEI Guo-ping,XIE Ying-nan.Study on Evaluation of Land Use Ecological Efficiency Based on AHP and Entropy Weight Method[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(04):134.
[8]路昌,雷国平,张慧,等.黑龙江省哈尔滨市不同土地利用类型的碳排放效应分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):245.
LU Chang,LEI Guo-ping,ZHANG Hui,et al.Effects of Different Land Use Patterns on Carbon Emission in Harbin City of Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(04):245.
[9]陈杰,杨太保,何毅.石羊河下游民勤土地利用及景观格局动态分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):251.
CHEN Jie,YANG Tai-bao,HE Yi.Analysis on Dynamic Characteristics of Landscape Patterns in Minqin of Shiyang River Downstream[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(04):251.
[10]申怀飞,侯刚,魏庆伟,等.南水北调中线水源区土地利用/覆被空间格局特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):209.
SHEN Huai-fei,HOU Gang,WEI Qing-wei,et al.The Spatial Distribution of Land Use/Land Cover in the Water Supplying Area of the Middle-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion (Mr-Snwd) Project[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(04):209.
备注/Memo
收稿日期：2023-09-06 修回日期：2024-09-29 接受日期：2024-10-14
资助项目：教育部人文社会科学研究项目（23YJC630019）；国家社科基金重点项目（23AZD032）；国家自然科学基金（42261047）
第一作者：陈振（1990—），男，安徽宣城人，博士，讲师，主要从事生态经济与政策研究。E-mail：chenzhen714@njupt.edu.cn
通信作者：张宇（1980—），男，内蒙古呼和浩特人，博士，副教授，主要从事土地政策研究。E-mail：422603315@qq.com