Gao Haiyan,Zhang Yue.Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the measured runoff in the main stream of the Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(02):1-13,23.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.02.014]
黄河干流实测径流量演变特征及影响因素分析
- Title:
- Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the measured runoff in the main stream of the Yellow River
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)02-0001-13
- 分类号:
- P333.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]全面揭示黄河流域径流演变机理,为进一步探讨流域水资源管理和可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]在函数型数据视角下,利用相平面图、主微分分析方法以及基函数拟合法探究了2002—2022年黄河干流实测径流量的趋势性、突变性、周期性和季节变动特征,并采用函数型聚类方法分析了主要水文站径流量的差异性。同时,利用累积量斜率变化分析法定量计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响贡献率,并通过建立多元函数型线性回归模型估计了气候变化和人类活动与径流量之间的响应关系。[结果]实测径流量呈增加趋势,周期性显著,在2004年、2008年、2013年、2017年、2021年发生突变,季节特征明显; 黄河干流12个主要水文站可聚为3类,各水文站不同年代径流量空间分布差异性显著; 降水量、气温、耗水量等气候变化和人类活动显著影响实测径流量。[结论]近20年来黄河干流实测径流量呈增加趋势,各水文站在空间分布上特征明显,实测径流量受气候变化和人类活动的显著影响。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]This study aims to comprehensively elucidate the mechanism of runoff evolution in the Yellow River Basin, and to provide a scientific basis for further exploration of water resource management and sustainable development in the basin. [Methods]From the perspective of functional data, the properties of trend, mutation, periodicity and seasonal variation of the measured runoff volume on the main stream of the Yellow River from 2002 to 2022 were investigated by techniques including phase plane analysis, principal differential analysis and basis function fitting. Additionally, the differences in runoff volumes among major hydrological stations were analyzed by functional clustering. Furthermore, cumulative slope change analysis was employed to quantify the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on runoff changes, and a multivariate functional linear regression model was established to estimate the relationship between climate change/human activities and runoff. [Results]The measured runoff volume displayed an increasing trend with significant periodicity, experiencing abrupt changes in 2004, 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2021 with distinct seasonal characteristics. Based on the spatial distribution patterns of annual runoff, the twelve main hydrological stations along the Yellow River could be classified into three categories. Climate factors(precipitation, temperature and water consumption)and human activities had been proved to notably influence the measured runoff. [Conclusion]Over the past 20 years, the measured runoff from the main stream of the Yellow River had exhibited an increasing trend with distinct spatial distribution characteristics among hydrological stations, indicating that the measured runoff volume was significantly impacted by climate change and human activities.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-04-09 修回日期:2024-05-06 接受日期:2024-05-21
资助项目:国家社会科学基金(19XTJ002); 甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA1186); 兰州财经大学科研项目(Lzufe2023C-005)
第一作者:高海燕(1980—),女,甘肃金昌人,博士,教授,主要从事函数型数据分析与应用研究。E-mail:gaohy_54@sina.com