Xie Mingwei,Zhou Huidi,Chen Song,et al.Valuation of ecosystem service value and multi-scenario simulation in Yinchuan city[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(01):294-304.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.01.018]
银川市生态系统服务价值评估及多情景模拟
- Title:
- Valuation of ecosystem service value and multi-scenario simulation in Yinchuan city
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)01-0294-11
- 分类号:
- X171.1; X321
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]土地利用变化影响生态系统服务价值(ESV),研究多情景下土地利用变化并评估ESV,对优化土地管理和维护生态安全具有重要意义。[方法]设置4种情景,通过多目标规划(MOP)求取不同目标下土地利用结构最优解,借助PLUS模型预测2030年土地利用空间分布情况,采用当量因子法评估ESV,并使用空间自相关分析集聚特征、Pearson相关性探究权衡协同关系。[结果](1)2000—2020年,银川市土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,建设用地扩张473.1 km2,耕地与草地减少。(2)自然演变和经济优先情景建设用地增加,草地减少; 生态优先情景林地、草地增加,耕地减少363.9 km2; 可持续发展情景耕地几乎不变,林地、水域增加。(3)ESV呈下降趋势,4种情景总体ESV分别为47.184,45.404,53.924,49.711亿元,水文调节和气候调节占主导地位。(4)11项ESV间存在广泛而显著的协同关系,食物生产与其他服务的协同性较低。[结论]可持续发展情景扭转ESV的下降趋势并取得较高经济效益,为规划提供依据,未来应加强对林地与水域的保护,有利于提高ESV。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]Land use change affects ecosystem services value(ESV). The aims of this study are to examine land use change, to assess ESV under multiple scenarios, and to optimize land management and maintain ecological security. [Methods]Firstly, four scenarios were set up to find the optimal solution of land use structure under different objectives through multi-objective programming(MOP). And then, the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 was predicted with the help of PLUS model. Moreover, ESV was evaluated by the equivalent factor method. Lastly, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the clustering characteristics, while Pearson correlation coefficient was used to explore the synergistic relationship of trade-offs. [Results](1)From 2000 to 2020, land use types in Yinchuan City were dominated by cropland and grassland, with construction land expanding by 473.1 km2, cropland and grassland decreasing.(2)The natural evolution scenario and economic priority scenario increase in construction land and decrease in grassland. The ecological priority scenario increases in forest and grassland, and decreases in cropland by 363.9 km2. The sustainable development scenario has almost the same cropland and increases in forest and water area.(3)ESV shows a decreasing trend, and the overall ESV of the four scenarios is 4.718 4 billion yuan, 4.540 4 billion yuan, 5.392 4 billion yuan, and 4.971 1 billion yuan, respectively, with hydrological regulation and climate regulation dominating.(4)There are extensive and significant synergistic relationships among the 11 ESV, with low synergies between food production and others. [Conclusion]Sustainable development scenario reversing the downward trend of ESV and achieving high economic benefits can provide a basis for planning. Strengthening the protection of forest and water area is conducive to the improvement of ESV.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-04-02 修回日期:2024-05-10
资助项目:国家重点研发计划课题“城市生态空间控制和布局优化技术”(2022YFC3800203)
第一作者:解铭威(1997—),男,内蒙古鄂尔多斯人,博士研究生,研究方向:生态系统服务。E-mail:2720948576@qq.com
通信作者:王向荣(1963—),男,甘肃兰州人,博士,教授,研究方向:国土景观。E-mail:wxr@bjfu.edu.cn