Ji Guangxing,Liu Zhipei,Gao Hongkai,et al.Monthly scale actual evaporation simulation and attribution analysis in Gan River Basin from 1961 to 2020[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(01):195-202.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.01.035]
1961—2020年赣江流域月尺度实际蒸发模拟及归因分析
- Title:
- Monthly scale actual evaporation simulation and attribution analysis in Gan River Basin from 1961 to 2020
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)01-0195-08
- 关键词:
- 实际蒸发量变化; 气候变化; 人类活动; ABCD模型; 月尺度Budyko模型
- Keywords:
- actual evaporation changes; climate change; human activities; ABCD hydrological model; monthly Budyko model
- 分类号:
- P333
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究赣江流域月时间尺度实际蒸发的变化规律和分配特征以及不同因素对实际蒸发量的贡献量,为生态环境保护和水资源高效利用提供理论依据。[方法]基于赣江流域外洲水文站1961—2020年径流量数据,结合Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Pettitt突变点检验法确定径流突变年份。其次利用ABCD水文模拟赣江流域基准期和突变期径流变化过程,计算得出月尺度实际蒸发量。然后利用去趋势预置白趋势检验法(TFPW-MK)分析实际蒸发的变化趋势和年内分布特征。最后采用月尺度Budyko模型对实际蒸发量变化进行归因分析。[结果](1)径流突变年份为1991年。(2)赣江流域2月、3月、4月、6月、9月的实际蒸发量呈现上升趋势,其余月份实际蒸发为下降趋势。其中2月、3月的实际蒸发量显著上升(p<0.05)。(3)赣江流域月尺度实际蒸发量呈现“单峰型”分布,在7月附近达到最大值。(4)气候变化会导致各月实际蒸发量的增加,人类活动会导致各月实际蒸发量减少。[结论]赣江流域实际蒸发量呈现先增大后减少的趋势,气候变化对实际蒸发量的贡献表现为正作用。人类活动对实际蒸发量变化表现为负作用。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to investigate the change rule and distribution characteristics of actual evaporation in Ganjiang River Basin on monthly time scale and the contribution of different factors to actual evaporation, and to provide theoretical basis for ecological environmental protection and efficient utilization of water resources. [Methods]Based on the runoff data of Waizhou hydrological station in Gan River Basin from 1961 to 2020, the abrupt year of runoff was determined by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt mutation point test methods. Secondly, for calculating monthly scale actual evaporation data, the ABCD hydrological model was employed to simulate the runoff change process during the base period and the mutation period. Next, the Mann-Kendall test with trend-free pre-whitening(TFPW-MK)was applied to examine the variation trend and intra-annual distribution characteristics of monthly scale actual evaporation. Finally, the monthly scale Budyko model was used to analyze the attribution of monthly scale actual evaporation changes. [Results](1)The mutation year of runoff was 1991.(2)The actual evaporation in February, March, April, June and September showed an upward trend, and the actual evaporation in the remaining months showed a downward trend. Among them, actual evaporation in February and March increased significantly(p<0.05).(3)The actual evaporation in the Gan River Basin showed a single peak distribution, and the actual evaporation reached to the maximum near July.(4)Climate change had led to an increase in monthly scale actual evaporation. Human activities had led to a decrease in monthly scale actual evaporation. [Conclusion]The actual evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing, and the contribution of climate change to the actual evapotranspiration showed a positive effect. The contribution of climate change to actual evapotranspiration was positive, while the contribution of human activities to actual evapotranspiration was negative.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-12-07 修回日期:2024-03-04
资助项目:国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1700900); 国家自然科学基金(42122002,42071081); 河南省科技攻关项目(222102320041); 河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2023-ZZJH-189); 河南农业大学拔尖人才项目(30501031)
第一作者:姬广兴(1990—),男,河南商丘人,博士,讲师,研究方向为变化环境下生态水文响应。E-mail:guangxingji@henau.edu.cn
通信作者:陈伟强(1975—),男,河南安阳人,教授,博士,博士生导师,研究方向为土地资源信息管理。E-mail:chwqgis@163.com