Zhuang Qiuyu,Cui Yanxin,Zhang Yuhu,et al.Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(06):1-10.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035]
基于SWAT的乌伦古河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流和总磷的影响
- Title:
- Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)06-0001-10
- Keywords:
- SWAT model; climate change; land use change; runoff and total phosphorus; Ulungu River Basin
- 分类号:
- P333; P467; X52
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]定量探讨气候和土地利用变化对径流和总磷负荷的影响,为新疆乌伦古河流域未来水土资源的合理开发利用及水污染的防控提供科学参考。[方法]通过构建SWAT分布式水文模型,采用情景分析法设定6种不同的变化情景,预测了流域在变化环境下的径流和总磷负荷。[结果]径流和总磷在率定期和验证期的决定系数R2和纳什系数Ens均达到0.75以上,构建的SWAT模型在乌伦古河流域径流和总磷负荷变化的模拟中具有较好的适用性。气候和土地利用变化共同影响下,年均径流量分别上升0.22 m3/s,5.14 m3/s,S4情景年均总磷负荷下降894.5 t,S5情景增加7.41 t。气候变化影响方面,径流量与降水变化呈正相关,降水变化是乌伦古河流域径流变化的主要驱动因素,而总磷负荷与气温和降水变化均呈正相关,但降水对总磷负荷的影响更显著; 土地利用变化影响方面,径流和总磷与土地利用变化均呈负相关关系,土地利用变化是总磷负荷增加的主要影响因素之一。[结论]气候和土地利用变化对新疆乌伦古河流域的径流和总磷负荷的产生分别具有促进和抑制作用,未来面临降水增多与水体污染问题时,需同时考虑气候和土地利用变化的影响来制定相应政策。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to quantitatively explore the effects of climate and land use changes on runoff and total phosphorus loading, and to provide scientific references for the future rational development and utilization of soil and water resources as well as the prevention and control of water pollution in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang. [Methods]Runoff and total phosphorus loads from the watershed under changing environments were predicted by using the SWAT distributed hydrological model and setting up six different change scenarios using scenario analysis. [Results]The coefficients of determination R2 and Nash coefficient Ens of runoff and total phosphorus in the rate period and validation period reached more than 0.75, and the established SWAT model had good applicability in the simulation of runoff and total phosphorus loading changes in the Ulungu River Basin. The combined effects of climate and land use change increase runoff volume by 0.22 m3/s and 5.14 m3/s, respectively, and the average annual total phosphorus load decreases by 894.5 t under the S4 scenario and increases by 7.41 t under the S5 scenario. As for the impact of climate change, runoff was positively correlated with precipitation changes, which was the main driver of runoff changes in the Ulungur River Basin, while total phosphorus loads were positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation changes, but the effect of precipitation on total phosphorus loads was more significant. As for the impact of land use change, both runoff and total phosphorus were negatively correlated with land use change, and land use change was one of the main influencing factors for the increase of total phosphorus load. [Conclusion]Climate and land use changes have contributed to and inhibited runoff and total phosphorus loading in the Ulungu River Basin in Xinjiang. The impacts of climate and land use changes need to be taken into account in the formulation of policies when facing the problems of increased precipitation and water pollution in the future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-01-09 修回日期:2024-03-12
资助项目:国家“山水林田湖草”生态保护修复工程项目(HNS-QR-022); 国家自然科学基金重点国际(地区)合作研究项目(42220104004); 国家自然科学基金项目(42377337)
第一作者:庄秋雨(1999—),女,四川成都人,硕士,研究方向为气候变化与水土资源。E-mail:zqy99993@163.com
通信作者:张玉虎(1975—),男,江苏徐州人,教授,主要从事环境系统分析及模型研究。E-mail:zhang_yuhu@163.com；蒲晓(1984—),男,山东淄博人,副教授,主要从事水环境模拟与污染控制研究。E-mail:xiao.pu@cnu.edu.cn