Chen Yufei,Han Yuguo,Sun Mingdong,et al.Prediction and Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Sichuan Section of the Yangtze River Basin Based on the CMIP6 Climate Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):288-294.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.014]
基于CMIP6气候模式对长江流域四川段的未来降水变化预估与分析
- Title:
- Prediction and Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Sichuan Section of the Yangtze River Basin Based on the CMIP6 Climate Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)05-0288-07
- 关键词:
- CMIP6模式; 气候变化; 统计降尺度Delta; 长江流域四川段
- Keywords:
- CMIP6 model; climate change; statistical downscaling; Sichuan section of the Yangtze River Basin
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]了解和掌握气象时空变化,合理预估气候变化的未来趋势,可为区域应对措施的制定提供重要的理论依据。[方法]以长江流域四川段作为研究区,基于1980—2014年实测站点资料进行数据分析,采用偏差订正后的国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中情景齐全的GCM预估3个未来假定气候情景模式(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5),分析了区域内降水气候变量的变化情况。[结果](1)气候模式模拟长江流域四川段降水量的结果存在一定程度的低估,在时间尺度上表现为月尺度>季尺度>年尺度。(2)对气候模式进行校正和评估后,数据更加符合实际情况,分位数映射法对气候模型数据的校正是很有效的。(3)相对于基准期(1980—2014年),研究区域未来降水量在3种情景下均高于历史时期,表现为SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6。(4)降水量增加较大的区域主要位于研究区的西北部,呈现西部低东部高的空间格局。[结论]气候模式对研究区未来降水变化的预估结果为整体呈增长趋势,但存在一定程度低估。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]Understanding and grasping the temporal and spatial changes in meteorology and reasonably predicting the future trend of climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for the formulation of regional response measures. [Methods]The Sichuan section of the Yangtze River Basin was selected as the research area. Data analysis was conducted based on measured station data from 1980 to 2014. Three future hypothetical climate scenario models(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5)were estimated using the GCM with complete scenarios in the sixth phase of the International Coupled Model Comparison Plan(CMIP6)after bias correction, and the changes in precipitation climate variables within the region were analyzed. [Results](1)There is a certain degree of underestimation of precipitation simulation in climate models, with monthly scale>seasonal scale>annual scale in terms of time scale.(2)After the calibration and evaluation of the climate model, the data are more consistent with the actual situation, and the quantile mapping method is very effective for the calibration of the Climate model data.(3)Compared to the benchmark period(1980—2014), the future precipitation in the study area is higher than the historical period under three scenarios, with SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6.(4)The areas with significant increases in precipitation are mainly located in the northwest of the study area, showing a spatial pattern of low level in the west and high level in the east. [Conclusion]The climate model's prediction of future precipitation changes in the study area shows an overall increasing trend, but there is underestimation to a certain extent.
参考文献/References:
[1]岳艳琳.气候变化下长江流域未来径流与旱涝变化特征研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2022.
Yue Y L. The Changes of future runoff and drought and flood in the Yangtze River basin under climate change[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University, 2022.
[2]张琴,张利平,邓瑶,等.气候模式与水文模拟关键技术研究进展及展望[J].气象科技进展,2021,11(3):126-134.
Zhang Q, Zhang L P, Deng Y, et al. The research progress and prospects of climate model and hydrological simulation key technology[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2021,11(3):126-134.
[3]吴健,夏军,曾思栋,等. CMIP6全球气候模式对长江流域气候变化的模拟评估与未来预估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2023,32(1):137-150.
Wu J, Xia J, Zeng S D, et al. Evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models and future changes over the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2023,32(1):137-150.
[4]向竣文,张利平,邓瑶,等.基于CMIP6的中国主要地区极端气温/降水模拟能力评估及未来情景预估[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2021,54(1):46-57.
Xiang J W, Zhang L P, Deng Y, et al. Projection and evaluation of extreme temperature and precipitation in major regions of China by CMIP6 models[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2021,54(1):46-57.
[5]吴晶,王宝鉴,杨艳芬,等. CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):198-212.
Wu J, Wang B J, Yang Y F, et al. Comparing simulated temperature and precipitation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 in arid areas of Northwest China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017,13(3):198-212.
[6]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.
Chen X C, Xu Y, Xu C H, et al. Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 multi-models[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis, 2014,10(3):217-225.
[7]张丽霞,陈晓龙,辛晓歌. CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(5):519-525.
Zhang L X, Chen X L, Xin X G. Short commentary on CMIP6 scenario model intercomparison project(ScenarioMIP)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019,15(5):519-525.
[8]Iqbal Z, Shahid S, Ahmed K, et al. Evaluation of CMIP6 GCM rainfall in mainland Southeast Asia[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2021,254:105525.
[9]周天军,邹立维,陈晓龙.第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)评述[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(5):445-456.
Zhou T J, Zou L W, Chen X L. Commentary on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019,15(5):445-456.
[10]刘卫林,熊翰林,刘丽娜,等.基于CMIP5模式和SDSM的赣江流域未来气候变化情景预估[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(2):145-152.
Liu W L, Xiong H L, Liu L N, et al. Estimate of the climate change in Ganjiang River Basin using SDSM method and CMIP5[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2019,26(2):145-152.
[11]冯椰林,贺中华,焦树林,等.基于CMIP6气候模式的贵州省极端降水情景预估[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(1):282-290.
Feng Y L, He Z H, Jiao S L, et al. Scenario prediction of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province based on CMIP6 climate model[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023,30(1):282-290.
[12]赵芳芳,徐宗学.统计降尺度方法和Delta方法建立黄河源区气候情景的比较分析[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):653-662.
Zhao F F, Xu Z X. Comparative analysis on downscaled climate scenarios for headwater catchment of Yellow River using SDS and Delta methods[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2007,65(4):653-662.
[13]张素兰,张碧,刘翔,等.四川省生态环境保护与绿色发展研究[J].环境生态学,2021,3(11):43-48.
Zhang S L, Zhang B, Liu X, et al. Study on ecological environment protection and green development in Sichuan Province[J]. Environmental Ecology, 2021,3(11):43-48.
[14]苏鹏程,刘希林,郭洁.四川泥石流灾害与降雨关系的初步探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):19-23.
Su P C, Liu X L, Guo J. Primary analysis of relationship between debris flows and rainfalls in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006,15(4):19-23.
[15]黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达,等. RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].气象,2016,42(5):614-620.
Huang J L, Wang Y J, Su B D, et al. Future climate change and its impact on runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under RCP4.5 scenario[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2016,42(5):614-620.
[16]易东英.基于CMIP6气候模式的黄河源区径流模拟与分析[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2022.
Yi D Y. Simulation and analysis of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River based on CMIP6 climate model[D]. Yangling, Shaanxi:Northwest A&F University, 2022.
[17]丁光旭,郭家力,汤正阳,等.多种降水再分析数据在长江流域的适用性对比[J].人民长江,2022,53(9):72-79.
Ding G X, Guo J L, Tang Z Y, et al. Evaluation on applicability of various reanalysis datasets of precipitation in Changjiang River Basin[J]. Yangtze River, 2022,53(9):72-79.
[18]程娟娟.高校科研与教学关系实证研究:基于皮尔逊相关系数的分析[J].中国高校科技,2022(10):46-52.
Cheng J J. Empirical Study on the Relationship between Scientific Research and Teaching in Universities:Analysis based on Pearson Correlation coefficient[J]. Science and Technology in Chinese Universities, 2022(10):46-52.
[19]Li B X, Huang Y, Du L J, et al. Bias correction for precipitation simulated by RegCM4 over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River based on the mixed distribution quantile mapping method[J]. Atmosphere, 2021,12(12):1566.
[20]Tong Y, Gao X J, Han Z Y, et al. Bias correction of temperature and precipitation over China for RCM simulations using the QM and QDM methods[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2021,57(5):1425-1443.
[21]雷华锦,马佳培,李弘毅,等.基于分位数映射法的黑河上游气候模式降水误差订正[J].高原气象,2020,39(2):266-279.
Lei H J, Ma J P, Li H Y, et al. Bias correction of climate model precipitation in the upper Heihe River basin based on quantile mapping method[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2020,39(2):266-279.
[22]肖登攀,赵彦茜,柏会子,等. CMIP5全球气候模式对华北平原气候的模拟和预估[J].地理与地理信息科学,2020,36(2):75-82.
Xiao D P, Zhao Y X, Bai H Z, et al. Simulation and projection of climate change in North China Plain by CMIP5 multi-model[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2020,36(2):75-82.
相似文献/References:
[1]隆院男,张雨林,蒋昌波,等.基于CMIP6的气候变化下资水流域径流响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(04):114.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.010]
Long Yuannan,Zhang Yulin,Jiang Changbo,et al.Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):114.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.010]
[2]刘悦俊,程江浩,张燕杰.青藏高原土壤侵蚀对气候变化和生态政策的非线性响应[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(04):126.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.044]
Liu Yuejun,Cheng Jianghao,Zhang Yanjie.Nonlinear Response of Soil Erosion in the Tibetan Plateau to Cliamte Change and Ecological Policies[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):126.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.044]
[3]王银龙,高瑞忠,房丽晶,等.内蒙古草原内陆河流域水文循环要素时空演变及驱动因素[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(05):279.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.009]
Wang Yinlong,Gao Ruizhong,Fang Lijing,et al.Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Hydrological Cycle Factors in Inland River Basin of Inner Mongolia Gassland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):279.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.009]
[4]庄秋雨,崔艳欣,张玉虎,等.基于SWAT的乌伦古河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流和总磷的影响[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(06):1.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035]
Zhuang Qiuyu,Cui Yanxin,Zhang Yuhu,et al.Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff and Total Phosphorus in the Ulungu River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):1.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.035]
[5]张吉洪,姚正红,李俊杰,等.亚热带江河源头区径流对土地利用及气候变化的响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(06):55.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.017]
Zhang Jihong,Yao Zhenghong,Li Junjie,et al.Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):55.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.06.017]
[6]王丽霞,丁慧兰,刘 招,等.基于CASA模型探究泾河流域植被NPP时空动态及其对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):190.
WANG Lixia,DING Huilan,LIU Zhao,et al.Spatiotemporal Change of NPP Based on CASA Model and Its Response to Climate Change in Jing River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):190.
[7]汤 琦,余珮珩,陈泽怡,等.共享社会经济路径下土地利用变化模拟[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):301.
TANG Qi,YU Peiheng,CHEN Zeyi,et al.Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):301.
[8]方 欣,刘小槺,岳大鹏.毛乌素沙地1960—2018年气候变化特征及影响因子分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):163.
FANG Xin,LIU Xiaokang,YUE Dapeng.Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Mu Us Sandy Land from 1960 to 2018[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):163.
[9]刘洋洋,任涵玉,章钊颖,等.中国草地覆盖度时空动态格局及其影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):221.
LIU Yangyang,REN Hanyu,ZHANG Zhaoying,et al.Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Pattern of Grassland Coverage and Its Influencing Factors in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):221.
[10]陈明向,翟禄新,阳 扬,等.人工毛竹林生态水文过程对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(03):189.
CHEN Mingxiang,ZHAI Luxin,YANG Yang,et al.Response of Ecohydrological Processes in Artificial Bamboo Forest to Climate Change[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):189.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-07-03 修回日期:2023-10-12
资助项目:国家重点研发计划项目“近岸海域氮磷污染陆海气协同防治关键技术研究与示范”(2021YFC3101703)
第一作者:陈俣霏(1996—),女,内蒙古通辽人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水资源管理。E-mail:2114227007@qq.com
通信作者:孙明东(1981—),男,山东莱州人,博士,工程师,主要从事水环境规划与管理研究。E-mail:sunmingdong@163.com