Chen Zhen,Guo Jie,Zhang Xuewei,et al.Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Life-Ecology Space in Nanjing Coupled with Landscape Ecological Security Pattern[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):383-394.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.009]
耦合景观生态安全格局的南京市“三生”空间多情景模拟
- Title:
- Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Life-Ecology Space in Nanjing Coupled with Landscape Ecological Security Pattern
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0383-12
- Keywords:
- production-life-ecological space; landscape ecological security pattern; FLUS model; scenario simulation
- 分类号:
- F301.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]阐明区域景观生态安全格局与“三生”空间多情景模拟的耦合过程,为维护区域生态安全、优化国土空间发展格局提供参考。[方法]将包含防洪、水土保持、生物保护和游憩等重要生态过程的综合景观生态安全格局作为约束条件耦合到FLUS模型中,设置农业空间优先、工业和生活空间优先、生态空间优先和三生空间均衡发展4类情景,预测了规划目标年(2025年和2035年)不同情景下“三生”空间结构与布局状况。[结果]南京市低、中、高安全水平生态用地规模分别为1 537.41,2 576.85,2 928.59 km2,占比23.34%,39.12%,44.46%; 相较其他3种情景,“三生”空间均衡发展情景下,维持中等水平的生态安全,各类空间变化趋势整体较为缓和,到2025年和2035年,生产空间基本维持现有水平,仅增加2.09,2.02 km2,生活空间增幅相对有限,分别为28.55,46.27 km2,生态空间缩减幅度有所放缓,分别为30.64,48.29 km2,该情景在满足经济发展对建设用地需求的同时,也能兼顾粮食安全和生态保护的要求,有利于促进经济、社会和生态全面协调可持续发展。[结论]以“三生”空间均衡发展为目标优化国土空间发展格局,有利于实现生产空间集约高效、生活空间宜居适度、生态空间山清水秀。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the coupling process between the landscape ecological security pattern and the multi-scenario simulation of the production-life-ecology space, and to provide reference for maintaining regional ecological security and optimizing the spatial development pattern of land. [Methods]As a constraint condition, landscape ecological security pattern was coupled to FLUS model. Four scenarios were set up by adjusting the cost of land conversion under different scenarios to predict the spatial structure and layout of production-life-ecology in target years(2025 and 2035). [Results]The scales of ecological land under low, medium and high security levels in Nanjing are 1 537.41, 2 576.85, 2 928.59 km2, respectively, the proportions to the total land area are 23.34%, 39.12% and 44.46%, respectively. Compared to the other scenarios, the balanced development scenario maintains a certain degree of ecological security, various space changes tend to moderate. By 2025 and 2035, production space will only increase in 2.09 km2 and 2.02 km2, living space will increase in 28.55 km2 and 46.27 km2, and ecological space will decrease in 30.64 km2 and 48.29 km2. This scenario meets the demand of economic development for construction land, gives consideration to food security and ecological protection and promots the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of economy, society and ecology. [Conclusion]Based on production-life-ecological balanced development, optimizing the development pattern of national land space is conducive to realizing intensive and efficient production space, livable and moderate living space, and beautiful ecological space.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-08-16 修回日期:2023-09-02
资助项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC630019); 国家自然科学基金(72174089); 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2021SJA0088); 南京邮电大学人文社会科学研究资助项目(NYY221037)
第一作者:陈振(1990—),男,安徽宣城人,博士,讲师,主要从事土地利用与管理研究。E-mail:chenzhen714@njupt.edu.cn