Wei Junchao,Mei Zhixiong,Ma Junjie,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Guangzhou[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):298-307.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.028]
广州市土地利用碳排放时空演变及影响因素
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Guangzhou
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0298-10
- Keywords:
- land-use carbon emissions; spatial autocorrelation; exploratory regression; GWR model; Guangzhou City
- 分类号:
- F301.2; X16
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究不同空间尺度下的土地利用碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素,为制定合理的碳减排措施并实现“双碳”目标提供参考依据。[方法]从乡镇级和1 km格网两个空间尺度测算了2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年广州市土地利用碳排放量,运用GIS空间分析、空间自相关方法、探索性回归和地理地权回归(GWR)模型探讨了广州市土地利用碳排放的时空演变特征及影响因素。[结果](1)两个尺度下中、高度碳排放区面积逐渐增加,负碳排放和低度碳排放区面积逐渐减小。(2)区域土地利用碳排放总体上具较强的正空间集聚特征,且集聚程度趋于增强; 高—高集聚和低—低集聚单元居多,低—高集聚区零星分布且变化不大。(3)局部空间集聚格局也发生了一些变化:高—高集聚区逐渐扩大; 低—低集聚区在乡镇级尺度下有所收缩,而1 km格网尺度下略微扩大。(4)土地利用结构、投资水平和人口规模对土地利用碳排放具正向作用,95.32%的乡镇单元的人口密度具抑制作用。[结论]广州市土地利用碳排放水平逐渐增加,且整体上呈现正空间集聚特征,各影响因素对其的影响差异明显,研究成果可为广州市制定精准化碳减排措施提供参考依据。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The purposes of this study are to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions at different spatial scales, and to provide a reference basis for formulating reasonable carbon emission reduction measures and realize the goal of ‘dual carbon'. [Methods]The land-use carbon emissions in Guangzhou in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were measured at township scale and 1 km grid scale. GIS spatial analysis, spatial autocorrelation, exploratory regression and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in Guangzhou. [Results](1)At the two scales, the areas of medium and high carbon emission areas were gradually increasing, while the areas of negative carbon emission areas and low carbon emission areas were gradually decreasing.(2)The land-use carbon emissions in the region generally had strong positive spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the degree of agglomeration tended to strengthen. The high—high agglomeration and low—low agglomeration units were dominant, and the distribution of low—high agglomeration areas were sporadic and did not change much.(3)The local spatial agglomeration pattern also involved some changes:the distribution of high—high agglomeration areas was expanding gradually; the distribution of low—low agglomeration areas were shrinking at township scale, but expanding slightly at 1 km grid scale.(4)Land use structure, investment level and population size had positive effects on land-use carbon emissions, while population density of 95.32% of township units had inhibitory effects. [Conclusion]The level of land-use carbon emissions Guangzhou gradually increased and showed positive spatial agglomeration characteristics on the whole, and the impacts of various influencing factors on it were significantly different. The results of this study can provide the reference for Guangzhou to formulate precise carbon emission reduction measures.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-08-28 修回日期:2023-09-22
资助项目:教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“面向生态安全的大区域土地利用优化配置——以珠江三角洲地区为例”(23YJAZH101)
第一作者:魏俊超(1997—),男,广东清远人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土地利用碳排放。E-mail:weijunchao1997@163.com
通信作者:梅志雄(1976—),男,湖北黄梅人,博士,教授,主要从事空间分析与建模、土地利用模拟与优化研究。E-mail:zhixiongmei76@126.com