Yu Zhou,Li Mingyu,Qian Yuyang,et al.Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):363-372.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.023]
基于CA_Markov模型多情景模拟的三峡库区土地利用变化及其生态环境效应
- Title:
- Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)03-0363-10
- 关键词:
- 土地利用变化; 生态环境质量; CA_Markov模型; 情景模拟; 三峡库区
- Keywords:
- land use change; ecological environment quality; CA_Markov model; scenario simulation; Three Gorges Reservoir Area
- 分类号:
- F301.2; X171.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究三峡库区土地利用与生态环境质量时空演变特征,揭示土地利用变化引起的生态环境效应,为研究区土地资源整合和生态环境保护提供依据。[方法]选取2000年、2010年、2020年土地利用遥感监测数据,采用CA_Markov模型分别预测自然变化情景(NCS)和生态保护情景(EPS)下2030年土地利用空间格局,并通过转移矩阵、生态环境质量指数、地统计分析、生态贡献率等方法,对三峡库区长时间序列土地利用变化及生态环境效应进行定量分析。[结果](1)2000—2020年,三峡库区土地利用类型间转化明显,其中耕地转向建设用地,草地转向林地和耕地,建设用地面积增长量1 321.56 km2,增长率达275.02%。(2)模拟结果显示2030年生态保护情景下林地、草地面积比例均高于自然变化情景,而建设用地扩大规模相比自然变化情景显著减少。(3)三峡库区生态环境质量呈现出自西向东逐渐升高的阶梯式分布格局,2000—2030年其生态环境质量略微下降,由2000年的0.547 9降低至2030年的0.533 6。(4)2000—2030年,降低三峡库区生态环境质量的两大主导因素是林、草地转为耕地,提高其生态环境质量的主要有利因素是耕地转为林地,生态贡献率比重超过70%。[结论]退耕还林还草和城市快速发展使三峡库区同时存在生态改善与生态恶化,但总的来看,研究区生态环境质量表现为改善略小于恶化的态势,建设用地、林地、耕地、草地之间的转化是其主要原因。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and ecological environment quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, to reveal the ecological environment effects caused by land use changes, and to provide a basis for land resource integration and ecological environment protection in the study area. [Methods] Remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 under the Natural Change Scenario(NCS)and the Ecological Protection Scenario(EPS)using the CA_Markov model, respectively, and to quantitatively analyze the long time series of land use changes and ecological and environmental effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area by transfer matrix, ecological environment quality index, geostatistical analysis, and ecological contribution rate. [Results](1)From 2000 to 2020, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area had obvious transformation between land use types, in which cropland shifted to construction land, grassland shifted to forest land and cropland, and the growth of construction land area amounted to 1 321.56 km2, with a growth rate of 275.02%.(2)The simulation results show that the proportions of forestland and grassland area under the ecological protection scenario in 2030 will be higher than those under the natural change scenario, while the expansion of construction land significantly reduces compared with the natural change scenario.(3)The ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area shows a stepped distribution pattern of gradual increase from west to east, and its ecological quality slightly decreases from 2000 to 2030, from 0.547 9 in 2000 to 0.533 6 in 2030.(4)From 2000 to 2030, the two dominant factors reducing the ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area are the conversion of forests and grasslands to croplands, and the main favorable factor improving its ecological quality is the conversion of croplands to forests, with a proportion of ecological contribution exceeding 70%. [Conclusion] The return of farmland to forests and grasslands and rapid urban development have led to both ecological improvement and ecological deterioration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, but in general, the ecological environment quality in the study area shows a trend of improvement slightly less than deterioration, and the transformation between construction land, forestland, cropland and grassland is the main reason for this.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-05-31 修回日期:2023-06-14
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目“延龙图地区城市生态用地评价与空间格局优化研究”(41461036)
第一作者:余洲(1996—),男,四川广安人,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为地图学与地理信息系统。E-mail:1070230928@qq.com
通信作者:李明玉(1974—),女,黑龙江梅林人,博士,教授,研究方向为城市生态用地评价。E-mail:leemy@ybu.edu.cn