Ren Zikang,Zhao Huarong,Shi Kangming,et al.Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Structure in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2020[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):168-180.
云南省1961-2020年降水结构时空变化特征
- Title:
- Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Structure in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2020
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)02-0168-13
- Keywords:
- precipitation occurrence rate; precipitation contribution rate; inverse distance weighting method; innovation trend analysis; precipitation duration; precipitation grade; Yunnan Province
- 分类号:
- P426
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示近60 a云南省降水结构的变化,加强对云南省降水的监测和预警,为云南省水旱灾害风险评估提供科学参考依据。[方法]基于云南省32个气象站点逐日降水观测数据,引入降水发生率和降水贡献率两个指标,利用创新趋势分析法(ITA)、Mann-Kendall检验法和反距离权重法(IDW),探讨了在不同降水历时和降水等级下,降水结构时空变化的特征。[结果](1)降水发生率随降水历时增加呈减少趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省以短历时降水为主。空间上,短历时降水发生率和贡献率整体呈现自东北向西南递减趋势,长历时与之相反。(2)随降水等级的提升,降水发生率呈增加趋势,降水贡献率呈先增加后减少趋势,云南省降水以小雨为主。空间上,小雨发生率呈自北向南递减趋势,中雨、大雨和暴雨发生率趋势与之相反。小雨和中雨贡献率呈自西北向东南递减趋势,大雨和暴雨与之相反。滇中、滇南和滇西南地区大雨和暴雨发生率和贡献率均较高,可能造成洪涝灾害的风险较大。(3)不同降水历时下,大多数站点短历时降水发生率和贡献率呈增加趋势,上升幅度大于5%,长历时呈5%以上下降趋势。不同降水等级下,大多数站点的小雨发生率、贡献率呈10%以内下降趋势,大雨和暴雨发生率、贡献率呈5%以上的上升趋势。[结论]云南省短历时大雨和暴雨发生概率有所上升,地区发生洪涝灾害和土壤侵蚀的几率增大,未来应持续对其降水结构进行监测研究。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the changes of precipitation structure in Yunnan Province in the last 60 years, to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of precipitation in Yunnan Province, and to provide scientific reference basis for the risk assessment of water and drought disasters in Yunnan Province. [Methods] Based on daily precipitation observation data from 32 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province, two indicators of precipitation occurrence and precipitation contribution were introduced, and the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of precipitation structure under different precipitation durations and precipitation grades were explored by using innovative trend analysis(ITA), Mann-Kendall test and inverse distance weighting(IDW)method. [Results](1)The precipitation occurrence rate tended to decrease with the increase of precipitation calendar time, and the precipitation contribution rate tended to increase and then decrease, with short calendar time precipitation dominating in Yunnan Province. Spatially, the precipitation occurrence rate and contribution rate of short calendar period showed an overall decreasing trend from northeast to southwest, while the opposite was true for long calendar period.(2)As the precipitation level increased, the precipitation occurrence rate tended to increase and the precipitation contribution rate tended to increase and then decrease, with light rainfall dominating in Yunnan Province. Spatially, the occurrence rate of light rain was decreasing from north to south, while the occurrence rate of medium rain, heavy rain and heavy rain was the opposite trend. The contribution rate of light and moderate rainfall showed a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast, and the contribution rate of heavy and torrential rainfall showed the opposite trend compared with that of the light and moderate rainfall. The occurrence and contribution rate of heavy and torrential rainfall were higher in central, southern and southwestern Yunnan, which might cause higher risk of flooding.(3)Under different precipitation durations, the occurrence and contribution rate of precipitation at most stations in short durations were increasing with the increase of more than 5%, and in long durations were decreasing with a trend of more than 5%. Under different precipitation grades, the occurrence and contribution rate of light rainfall at most stations showed the decreasing trend within 10%, and the occurrence and contribution rate of heavy rainfall and storms showed the increasing trend above 5%. [Conclusion] In Yunnan Province, the probability of short-calendar-time heavy rainfall and storms had risen, and the chance of flooding and soil erosion in the region had increased, so the precipitation structure should be continuously monitored and researched in the future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-04-27 修回日期:2023-06-05
资助项目:广西重点研发项目(桂科AB21075007); 桂林市科学技术研究开发项目(20210212-2)
第一作者:任子康(1999—),男,湖北宜昌人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水资源与水环境研究。E-Mail:glutrzk@163.com
通信作者:赵华荣(1971—),男,四川荣县人,博士,副教授,主要从事水资源与水环境研究。E-Mail:gutzhr@163.com