Dou Mingyu,Duan Keqin,Shi Peihong,et al.Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):158-167.
基于CMIP6多模式的黄土高原气温变化模拟评估及情景预估
- Title:
- Historical Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of Temperature Changes the Loess Plateau Based on CMIP6 Multimodels
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)02-0158-10
- Keywords:
- CMIP6; temperature; Loess Plateau; SSP scenario; future period
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]明晰黄土高原未来气温增加趋势和幅度,以期为黄土高原未来气温变化决策事件和防洪减灾等提供参考。[方法]基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中的22个地球-气候系统模式的模拟结果,通过观测数据系统评估了各模式历史时期(1961—2014年)模拟能力后,选用较好的10个模式的集合平均,对不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下黄土高原2015—2100年气温的时空变化特征进行了分析。[结果]在SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,2015—2100年黄土高原增温速率分别达到了0.09℃/10 a,0.28℃/10 a,0.48℃/10 a,0.66℃/10 a,且相对于1995—2014年,2081—2100年增温分别达1.53℃,2.69℃,3.83℃,5.25℃。除SSP1-2.6情景外,其余情景增温已远远超过《巴黎协定》全球2℃升温的目标,而且在SSP5-8.5情景下,2041—2060年增温已达2.44℃。SSP5-8.5情景下,2081—2100年黄土高原春、夏、秋和冬季气温相对于1995—2014年增温幅度变化范围为3.83～4.75℃,4.75～5.67℃,4.98～5.67℃,4.29～5.67℃。[结论]未来黄土高原将面临强大的增温压力,排放情景越高增温越显著,未来应加强对黄土高原气温的观测研究。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to clarify the future trend and magnitude of temperature increase in the Loess Plateau, and to provide reference for future temperature change decision-making events, flood control and disaster reduction in the Loess Plateau. [Methods] This study was based on the simulation results of 22 Earth-climate system models in the latest sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6). After systematically assessing the simulation capability of each model historical period(1961—2014)through observational data, the multi-model ensemble of 10 models was selected to analyze the temperature change characters in the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs). [Results] The warming rate of the Loess Plateau reaches 0.09℃/decade, 0.28℃/decade,0.48℃/decade and 0.66℃/decade in 2015—2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. By contrast to 1995—2014, the warming reaches 1.53℃, 2.69℃, 3.83℃ and 5.25℃ in 2081—2100, respectively. Except for the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario, the warming in other scenarios has far exceeded the target of limiting global 2℃ warming in the Paris Agreement, and under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario, the warming in 2041—2060 has already reached 2.36℃. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, even the spring, summer, autumn and winter temperatures in the Loess Plateau from 2081 to 2100 vary in the range of 3.83～4.75℃, 4.75～5.67℃, 4.98～5.67℃ and 4.29～5.67℃ compared to 1995—2014. [Conclusion] The Loess Plateau will face a strong warming pressure in the future, with a higher rate of temperature increase under the higher emission scenarios. The observational research on the temperature of the Loess Plateau should be strengthened in the future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-04-11 修回日期:2023-05-05
资助项目:中国博士后资助项目(2017M610622,2017BSHEDZZ18); 陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2023-JC-YB-259)
第一作者:豆明玉(2000—),女,陕西宝鸡人,硕士,研究方向为气候变化与自然灾害。E-mail:doumy@snnu.edu.cn
通信作者:段克勤(1970—),男,甘肃平凉人,博士,教授,主要从事全球变化研究。E-mail:kqduan@snnu.edu.cn