Yang Tianzeng,Zhang Hongbo,Li Yangbing,et al.Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Drought in the Beiluo River Basin from 1915 to 2020[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(01):187-198.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.049]
北洛河流域气象干旱百年演化特征研究
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Drought in the Beiluo River Basin from 1915 to 2020
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)01-0187-12
- Keywords:
- meteorological drought; SPEI; spatial and temporal pattern; evolutionary characteristics; Beiluo River Basin
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示黄土高原典型区域百年尺度干旱演化特征,与地貌类型耦合阐明气象干旱的时空变化规律,进而为北洛河流域综合治理提供科技支撑。[方法]基于1915—2020年北洛河流域1 km分辨率的平均气温及降水数据,计算了年际标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、反距离权重插值(IDW)等方法,分析了流域内100余年不同地貌类型区的气象干旱时空演变特征。[结果](1)北洛河流域降水量及平均气温的空间分布差异较大,总体呈现东南向西北递减的特点; 降水量多呈条带状分布,平均气温沿河道自上而下梯度增加,上游区(丘陵沟壑区)降水量相对较少,下游区(阶地平原区)平均气温相对偏高;(2)1915—2020年北洛河流域SPEI-12震荡明显,干旱事件交替出现且弱减,下降速率为-0.04/10 a,1942年,1990年和2010年为旱势转折年,并以1990年最为明显; 周期变化大致可从1960年分为两个时期,之前以10 a,17 a为主,其后为3 a,7 a,30 a左右,10 a和30 a周期在不同时期干旱变化中起主导作用;(3)SPEI-12的不显著下降趋势具有全域性且由东北向西南有增大趋势,表明北洛河流域总体呈弱旱化发展;(4)不同年代干旱事件发生频率差异较大,1990s重旱和特旱发生频率最高; 2000s不同类型干旱事件发生的总频率最大,其中上游区(丘陵沟壑区)和下游区(阶地平原区)可达70%,而中游区(土石山林区和高原沟壑区)约为60%;(5)不同类型干旱空间分布存在异质性,轻旱发生频率有自南向北逐渐降低的趋势,中旱发生频率与之相反。总体来看,北洛河流域上游区(丘陵沟壑区)易发生中旱,下游区(阶地平原区)更易发生轻旱,重旱高发区在流域内零散分布,特旱的发生概率仅为1.69%～2.10%。[结论]全球变暖引发的旱化趋势在黄土高原地区的影响客观存在,北洛河流域不同地貌类型区气象干旱发生的高频类型略有差别,未来应提升中下游地区的抗旱减灾能力。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the century-scale drought evolution characteristics in typical areas of the Loess Plateau, couple with landform types to clarify the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological drought, and provide scientific and technological support for the comprehensive management of the Beiluo River Basin. [Methods] The annual standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was calculated by using average temperature and precipitation data with a resolution of 1 km in the Beiluo River Basin from 1915 to 2020, and the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological drought in various landform types were examined by using the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis, and inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW). [Results](1)The Beiluo River Basin's spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation was quite diverse, showing a general decreasing trend from southeast to northwest along with a top-to-bottom gradient distribution of temperature along the channel. The temperature was relatively high in the downstream area(terrace plain area)while there was comparatively little precipitation in the upstream area(the hilly-gully area).(2)Throughout the study period, the SPEI-12 of this basin changed dramatically, suggesting that drought occurrences appeared in cycles. Overall drought occurrences displayed the decreasing tendency in terms of quantity, with a decline rate of -0.04/decade. Among them, the trend turned in 1942, 1990, and 2010, with 1990 marking the biggest turning point. Drought cycle variations could be loosely separated into two periods: the period prior to 1960, when the primary cycles were the 10 years and 17 years, and the period following 1960, when the dominant cycles were the 3 years, 7 years, and 30 years. The 10-year and 30-year cycles predominated the basin drought fluctuations across the whole time span.(3)The reduction in SPEI-12 was increasing from the northeast to the southwest, indicating that the Beiluo River Basin was often experiencing weak drought. This decline was global, but not statistically significant.(4)In the time domain, the frequency of drought events varied substantially. The 2000 s could be seen the highest frequency of all types of drought events, with the upstream(hilly-gully area)and the downstream(terrace plain area)both reaching 70% and the midstream(rocky-mountain area and table-gully area)at about 60%. The 1990 s could be seen the highest frequency of severe and extreme drought.(5)Different types of droughts distributed differently. While the frequency of moderate droughts slowly rose from the south to the north, the frequency of mild droughts gradually reduced from the south to the north. In general, moderate droughts were more likely to occur in the upper parts of the Beiluo River Basin(the hills-gully area), whereas mild droughts were more likely to occur in the downstream sections(the terrace plain area). The probability of experiencing an acute drought was just 1.69 to 2.10% in the majority of the basin's high-incidence zones, which dispersed throughout the basin. [Conclusion] Drought trends caused by global warming have an objective impact on the Loess Plateau region. The high-frequency types of meteorological droughts in different geomorphic types of the Beiluo River Basin are slightly different. In the future, drought resistance and disaster reduction capabilities in the middle and lower reaches should be improved.
参考文献/References:
[1] 何霄嘉,王国庆,鲍振鑫.气候、植被变化与水文循环响应研究进展及展望[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):1-5.
He X J, Wang G Q, Bao Z X. Progress and prospective of climate and vegetation coverage change as well as responses of hydrological cycle[J]. Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering, 2016,27(2):1-5.
[2] 姜彤,孙赫敏,李修仓,等.气候变化对水文循环的影响[J].气象,2020,46(3):289-300.
Jang T, Sun H M, Li X C, et al. Impact of climate change on water cycle[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2020,46(3):289-300.
[3] 吴玉.联合国报告称气候变化影响“前所未有”[J].自然杂志,2021,43(5):342,373.
Wu Y. IPCC climate report: Earth is warmer than it's been 12500 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature,2021,43(5):342,373.
[4] 马鹏里,韩兰英,张旭东,等.气候变暖背景下中国干旱变化的区域特征[J].中国沙漠, 2019,39(6):209-215.
Ma P L, Han L Y, Zhang X D, et al. Regional characteristics of drought in China under the background of climate warming[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019,39(6):209-215.
[5] 谢剑,高鹏,穆兴民,等.近80年来北洛河流域径流变化特征及其归因分析[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(2):122-128.
Xie J, Gao P, Mu X M, et al. Variation characteristics of runoff in Beiluo River Basin over the past 80 years and its attribution analysis[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023,30(2):122-128.
[6] Wang F, Wang Z, Yang H, et al. Study of the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Yellow River basin based on SPEI[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2018,61(8):1098-1111.
[7] 田甜,黄强,郭爱军,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的渭河流域干旱演变特征分析[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(2):16-27.
Tian T, Huang Q, Guo A J, et al. Drought evolution characteristics in Wei River basin based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2016,35(2):16-27.
[8] 孙艺杰,刘宪锋,任志远,等.1960—2016年黄土高原多尺度干旱特征及影响因素[J].地理研究,2019,38(7):1820-1832.
Sun Y J, Liu X F, Ren Z Y, et al. Spatiotemporal variations of multi-scale drought and it's influencing factors across the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2016[J]. Geographical Research, 2019,38(7):1820-1832.
[9] Gao X, Zhao Q, Zhao X, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in the Loess Plateau under climate change from 2001 to 2050[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2017,595:191-200.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.226.
[10] 师玉锋,梁思琦,彭守璋.1901—2017年黄土高原地区气候干旱的时空变化[J].水土保持通报,2020,40(1):283-289,325.
Shi Y F, Liang S Q, Peng S Z. Spatiotemporal variation of climate drought in Loess Plateau region during 1901—2017[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020,40(1):283-289,325.
[11] 杨睿,耿广坡,周洪奎,等.基于SPEI_PM指数的渭河流域气象干旱时空演变特征[J].中国农业气象,2021,42(11):962-974.
Yang R, Geng G P, Zhou H K, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution of meteorological drought in the Wei River Basin based on SPEI_PM[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2021,42(11):962-974.
[12] Liu Z, Wang Y, Shao M, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016,534:281-299.
[13] Cai S, Zuo D, Xu Z, et al. Spatiotemporal variability and assessment of drought in the Wei River basin of China[J]. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2018,379:73-82.
[14] 丁浩,张洪波,张靖铷,等.基于CanESM2的渭河流域干旱演变特征研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2022,50(8):131-145,154.
Ding H, Zhang H B, Zhang J R, et al. Evolution characteristics of drought in the Weihe River Basin based on CanESM2[J]. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Nat. Sci. Ed.), 2022,50(8):131-145,154.
[15] Ljungqvist F C, Krusic P J, Sundqvist H S, et al. Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries[J]. Nature, 2016,532(7597):94-98.
[16] Hegerl G C, Brönnimann S, Schurer A, et al. The early 20th century warming: anomalies, causes, and consequences[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2018,9(4):e522.
[17] Marvel K, Cook B I, Bonfils C J W, et al. Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence[J]. Nature, 2019,569(7754):59-65.
[18] 何亮.1980—2019年北洛河流域土地利用和土地覆被变化分析[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2020.
He L. Land use and land cover changes in the Beiluo river basin from 1980 to 2019[D]. Yangling, Shaanxi: Northwest A&F University, 2020.
[19] 谢敏,张晓明,赵阳,等.北洛河流域水沙变化对降雨和土地利用的响应[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2019,17(1):39-44.
Xie M, Zhang X M, Zhao Y, et al. The mechanism of response of runoff and sediment yield to precipitation and LUCC in Beiluohe River basin[J]. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2019,17(1):39-44.
[20] 梁冰洁.气候变化背景下的北洛河流域植被生态系统时空格局演变分析[D].郑州:郑州大学,2017.
Liang B J. Analysis of spatio-temporal variation of vegetation ecosystem in Beiluo River Basin in the context of climate change[D]. Zhengzhou: Zhengzhou University, 2017.
[21] 何亮,吕渡,郭晋伟,等.基于MODIS的北洛河流域植被盖度变化研究[J].人民黄河,2020,42(2):67-71,76.
He L, Lyu D, Guo J W, et al. Study on vegetation coverage change of Beiluo River Basin based on MODIS[J]. Yellow River, 2020,42(2):67-71,76.
[22] 薛帆,张晓萍,张橹,等.基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别:以北洛河流域为例[J].地理学报,2022,77(1):79-92.
Xue F, Zhang X P, Zhang L, et al. Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment changes based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory: A case study in the Beiluo River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022,77(1):79-92.
[23] 崔文艺,王武成.北洛河流域中上游水文特性分析及防洪减灾对策[J].陕西水利,2009,158(3):43-44.
Cui W Y, Wang W C. Analysis of hydrological characteristics and countermeasures of flood control and disaster reduction in the middle and upper reaches of Beiluo River Basin[J]. Shaanxi Water Conservancy, 2009,158(3):43-44.
[24] 黄河水资源保护科学研究院.北洛河流域综合规划环境影响报告书[R].郑州:黄河水资源保护科学研究院,2015.
Yellow River Water Resources Conservation Research Institute. The Beiluo River Basin Comprehensive Planning Environmental Impact Report[R]. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Water Resources Conservation Research Institute, 2015.
[25] 彭守璋.中国1 km分辨率逐月降水量数据集(1901—2020)[DS].国家青藏高原科学数据中心,2020.
Peng S.1-km monthly minimum temperature dataset for China(1901—2020)[DS]. National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, 2020.
[26] Peng S, Ding Y, Wen Z, et al. Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011—2100[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2017,233:183-194.
[27] Peng S, Gang C, Cao Y, et al. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2018,38(5):2250-2264.
[28] Peng S, Ding Y, Liu W, et al. 1 km monthly temperature and precipitation dataset for China from 1901 to 2017[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2019,11(4):1931-1946.
[29] Ding Y, Peng S. Spatiotemporal trends and attribution of drought across China from 1901—2100[J]. Sustainability, 2020,12(2):477-493.
[30] Al Buhairi M H. Analysis of monthly,seasonal and annual air temperature variability and trends in Taiz City-Republic of Yemen[J]. Journal of Environmental Protection, 2010,1(4):401-409.
[31] 张姝琪,张洪波,辛琛,等.水文序列趋势及形态变化的表征方法[J].水资源保护,2019,35(6):58-67.
Zhang S Q, Zhang H B, Xin C, et al. A method for characterizing trends and morphological changes of hydrological series[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2019,35(6):58-67.
[32] 中华人民共和国国家标准.气象干旱等级:GB/T20481-2017[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017.
National Standard of the People's Republic of China.Meteorological drought grade: GB/T20481-2017[S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2017.
[33] Vicente-serrano S M, Beguería S, López-moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[34] Yao Y B, Wang R Y, Yang J H, et al. Changes in terrestrial surface dry and wet conditions on the Loess Plateau(China)during the last half century[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2013,5(1):15-24.
[35] 董安祥,李耀辉,柳媛普.1941—1943年中国北方大旱的特点及其影响[J].干旱气象,2011,29(4):423-426,432.
Dong A X, Li Y H, Liu Y P. Characteristics of extreme drought event occurred from 1941 to 1943 in North China and its influence[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2011,29(4):423-426,432.
[36] 胡子瑛,周俊菊,张利利,等.中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1908-1919.
Hu Z Y, Zhou J J, Zhang L L, et al. Climate dry-wet change and drought evolution characteristics of different dry-wet areas in northern China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018,38(6):1908-1919.
[37] 宋家喜.1997/98年强厄尔尼诺现象及其对热带大气环流和我国重大气象、气候年际变化的影响[C]∥国减灾与新世纪发展战略:首届“中国21世纪安全减灾与可持续发展战略高级研讨会”论文集.北京:气象出版社,1998:154-157.
Song J X. Strong EI Niño Phenomenon in 1997/98 and its influence on tropical atmospheric circulation and major meteorological and climate interannual variations in China[C]∥China's Disaster Reduction and New Century Development Strategy: Proceedings of the First “Senior Seminar on China's 21st Century Security Disaster Reduction and Sustainable Development Strategy”. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1998:154-157.
[38] 周丹,张勃,任培贵,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50年干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(4):677-688.
Zhou D, Zhang B, Ren P G, et al. Analysis of drought characteristics of Shaanxi Province in recent 50 years based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014,29(4):677-688.
[39] 赵嘉阳.中国1960—2013年气候变化时空特征、突变及未来趋势分析[D].福州:福建农林大学,2017.
Zhao J Y. Changes and mutation in temperature and precipitation of China during 1960—2013 and future prediction[D]. Fuzhou: Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2017.
[40] 滕怀颐,冯克鹏.基于SPEI干旱指数的西北地区干旱时空分布[J].农业与技术,2021,41(8):887-893.
Teng H Y, Feng K P. Temporal and spatial distribution of drought in northwest China based on SPEI drought index[J]. Agriculture and Technology, 2021,41(8):887-893.
[41] 刘宇,李雯晴,刘招,等.基于SPEI渭北黄土台塬区干旱时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(1):109-117.
Liu Y, Li W Q, Liu Z, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the drought in Weibei Loess Tableland Area based on SPEI[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2021,28(1):109-117.
[42] 李洁,莫淑红,沈冰,等.基于SPEI的渭河流域干旱特征分析[J].西安理工大学学报,2016,32(1):70-76.
Li J, Mo S H, Shen B, et al. Analysis of drought characteristics of the Weihe River Basin based on SPEI[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Technology, 2016,32(1):70-76.
[43] Miao L, Li S, Zhang F, et al. Future drought in the dry lands of Asia under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ warming scenarios[J]. Earth's Future, 2020,8(6):e2019 EF001337.
[44] 孙洋洋.渭河流域气象与水文干旱时空演变特征[D].陕西 杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2018.
Sun Y Y. Characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution of hydrological and meteorological drought in the Wei River Basin[D]. Yangling: Northwest A&F University, 2018.
相似文献/References:
[1]徐羽,许有鹏,吴艳飞,等.近50年重庆市气象干旱时空分布特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(06):363.
XU Yu,XU Youpeng,WU Yanfei,et al.Temporal and Spatial Patterns of the Meteorological Drought in Chongqing City During Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(01):363.
[2]王孟和,何桂芳,徐建辉,等.基于GIS的安徽省江淮分水岭区域气象干旱研究[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(04):162.
WANG Menghe,HE Guifang,XU Jianhui,et al.Research of Meteorological Drought in Jianghuai Watershed Area of Anhui Province Based on GIS[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(01):162.
[3]周丹,罗静,郑玲,等.基于格点数据的华北地区气象干旱特征及成因分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(04):195.
ZHOU Dan,LUO Jing,ZHENG Ling,et al.Characteristics and Causes of Meteorological Drought in North China Based on Grid Data[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):195.
[4]郑越馨,吴燕锋,潘小宁,等.三江平原气象水文干旱演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(04):177.
ZHENG Yuexin,WU Yanfeng,PAN Xiaoning,et al.Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in Sanjiang Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):177.
[5]杨星星,杨云川,邓思敏,等.基于SPEI的广西干旱综合特征及农业旱灾风险研究[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(04):113.
YANG Xingxing,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(01):113.
[6]王雨晴,张成福,李晓鸿.内蒙古典型草原区NDVI对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(04):201.
WANG Yuqing,ZHANG Chengfu,LI Xiaohong.Response of NDVI to Climate Change in Typical Steppes of Inner Mongolia[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(01):201.
[7]郑金涛,彭 涛,董晓华,等.三峡库区气象干旱演变特征及致灾因子危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(05):213.
ZHENG Jintao,PENG Tao,DONG Xiaohua,et al.Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Assessment of Risk of Disaster Factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(01):213.
[8]祁嘉郁,巴特尔·巴 克.基于相对湿润度指数的北疆气象干旱时空特征[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(03):223.
QI Jiayu,Bateer·bake.Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought in Northern Xinjiang Based on Relative Moisture Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(01):223.
[9]张 浪,贺中华,夏传花,等.基于时变Copula模型的多尺度气象干旱、水文干旱特征及其概率分析——以黔中水利工程区为例[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(06):115.
ZHANG Lang,HE Zhonghua,XIA Chuanhua,et al.Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(01):115.
[10]王蔚丹,孙 丽,裴志远,等.辽宁省生长季气候变化及其对春玉米产量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):281.
WANG Weidan,SUN Li,PEI Zhiyuan,et al.Climate Change During Growing Season and Its Effects on Spring Maize Yield in Liaoning Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(01):281.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-10-31 修回日期:2022-11-16
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(51979005); 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2022JC-LHJJ-03)
第一作者:杨天增(1998—),男,河南南阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:2020129015@chd.edu.cn
通信作者:张洪波(1979—),男,辽宁康平人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:hbzhang@chd.edu.cn