Wang Fei,Hong Lin,Ma Tianyao,et al.Study on Runoff Change of Nuomin River Basin Under Climate Change Conditions Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(06):67-77.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.035]
基于SWAT模型的气候变化条件下诺敏河流域径流变化研究
- Title:
- Study on Runoff Change of Nuomin River Basin Under Climate Change Conditions Based on SWAT Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)06-0067-11
- Keywords:
- climate change; SWAT model; runoff characteristics; Nuomin River Basin
- 分类号:
- P333; P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]了解气候变化条件下诺敏河流域径流变化特征,为诺敏河流域水文水资源综合规划提供科学支撑。[方法]通过SDSM统计降尺度模型和大气环流模式,生成未来不同情景模式下的气温和降水数据,运用SWAT模型模拟计算得到了不同气候情景模式下的径流数据。[结果]从趋势上看:3种情景模式下径流都保持增长趋势,RCP2.6模式下增幅最少,RCP4.5模式其次,RCP8.5模式下径流量增幅最大。从突变上看:RCP2.6模式下,径流在未来依旧不会存在突变点; RCP4.5模式下,径流在未来存在很大可能形成突变; 而在RCP8.5模式下,年径流将在2067年附近发生突变,突变后的径流量表现为显著的增长。从周期上看:RCP2.6模式下,径流变化周期主要由56 a的主周期控制; RCP4.5模式下,年径流变化周期主要由56 a和44 a的控制; RCP8.5模式下周期特征和RCP4.5模式相似,相比之下,56 a时间尺度下能量密度更为密集,该周期的控制效果得到进一步增强。[结论]不同气候情景模式下诺敏河流域径流差异较大,未来制定水文水资源综合规划应考虑不同气候条件的影响。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aim of the study is to understand the runoff variation pattern of Nuomin River Basin under climate change and provide scientific support for the comprehensive planning of hydrology and water resources in Nuomin River Basin. [Methods] The temperature and precipitation data were generated under different scenario modes in the future through statistical downscaling model, and SWAT model was applied to simulate the corresponding runoff data under different climate scenario modes. [Results] From the perspective of trend, the runoff maintains an increasing trend, with a relatively small increase under RCP2.6 mode, followed by RCP4.5 mode, and the largest increase under RCP8.5 mode. From the perspective of mutation, there will still be no mutation point in runoff under RCP2.6 mode, and there will be a great possibility of sudden change in runoff under RCP4.5 mode, while under RCP8.5 mode, the annual runoff will suddenly change around 2067. From the perspective of cycle, under RCP2.6 mode, the runoff change cycle is mainly controlled by the main cycle of 56 years. Under RCP4.5 mode, the annual runoff change cycle is mainly controlled by 56 years and 44 years. The cycle characteristics of RCP8.5 mode are similar to those of RCP4.5 mode, but in contrast, the energy density is more intensive under the 56-year scale, and the control effect of this cycle is further enhanced. [Conclusion] There are significant differences in runoff in Nuomin River Basin under different climate scenario modes, and future comprehensive planning of hydrological and water resources should consider the impact of different climate conditions.
参考文献/References:
[1] Lipczynska-Kochany E. Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: A review[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,640:1548-1565.
[2] Fanzo J, Davis C, McLaren R, et al. The effect of climate change across food systems: Implications for nutrition outcomes[J]. Global Food Security, 2018,18:12-19.
[3] 赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.回顾IPCC 30年(1988—2018年)[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(5):540-546.
Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B. Reviewing the 30 Years of IPCC(1988—2018)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018,14(5):540-546.
[4] Shi C, Jiang Z, Chen W, et al. Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming targets[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2018,9(2):120-129.
[5] 张徐杰.气候变化下基于SWAT模型的钱塘江流域水文过程研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.
Zhang X J. Study on Hydrological Process of Qiantang River Basin Based on SWAT Model Under Climate Change[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2015.
[6] Ma C, Sun L, Liu S, et al. Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2015,7(4):501-513.
[7] 牟婷婷.基于SWAT模型的径流模拟及预测研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2018.
Mou T T. Research on Runoff Simulation and Prediction Based on SWAT model[D]. Wuhan: Wuhan University,2018.
[8] 刘春蓁.气候变化对我国水文水资源的可能影响[J].水科学进展,1997,8(3):220-225.
Liu C Z. Potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1997,8(3):220-225.
[9] 郭生练,郭家力,侯雨坤,等.基于Budyko假设预测长江流域未来径流量变化[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):151-160.
Guo S L, Guo J L, Hou Y K, et al. Prediction of future runoff change based on Budyko hypothesis in Yangtze River basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2015,26(2):151-160.
[10] 江介伦,刘子明,童庆斌,等.基于不同大气环流模型评估气候变迁对高屏溪流域河川流量的影响[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):148-154.
Jiang J L, Liu Z M, Tong Q B, et al. Variation evaluation of the impact on water resources derived from various General Circulation Models[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2010,41(2):148-154.
[11] 韩慧毅,丛刚春.复州河流域径流趋势性变化[J].水土保持应用技术,2011(1):4-6.
Han H Y, Cong G C. Trend changes of runoff in the Fuzhou River Basin[J]. Technology of Soil and Water Conservation, 2011(1):4-6.
[12] Khaled H, Hamed A, Ramachandra R. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1998,204:182-196.
[13] 雷红富,谢平,陈广才,等.水文序列变异点检验方法的性能比较分析[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4):36-40.
Lei H F, Xie P, Chen G C, et al. Performance comparison and analysis of variational point testing methods for hydrological sequences[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2007,25(4):36-40.
[14] Hamed K H, Ramachandra Rao A. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1998,204(1/4):182-196.
[15] 周园园,师长兴,范小黎,等.国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(11):1361-1369.
Zhou Y Y, Shi C X, Fan X L, et al. Advances in the research methods of abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences and their applications in drainage basins in China[J]. Progress in Geography,2011,30(11):1361-1369.
[16] 汪飞,洪林,吐尼亚孜·亚森,等.澜沧江流域气候时空变化规律[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2020,53(5):394-403.
Wang F, Hong L, Tuni Y, et al. Spatial-temporal variations of climate over Lancang River Basin[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2020,53(5):394-403.
[17] Neitsch S L, Arnold J G, Kinity J R, et al. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theroetical Documentation Version[Z].Texas Water Resources Institute,2005.
[18] Schlesinger M E, Zhao Z. Seasonal climatic changes induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean model[J]. Journal of Climate, 1989,2(5):459-495.
[19] 李峰,胡铁松,黄华金.SWAT模型的原理、结构及其应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(3):24-28.
Li F, Hu T S, Huang H J. Research on the principle, structure, and application of SWAT model[J]. China rural water and hydropower,2008(3):24-28.
[20] Williams J R, Nicks A D, Arnold J G. Simulator for water resources in rural basins[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1985,111(6):970-986.
[21] Lai G Y, Wu D Y, Zhong Y X, et al. Progress in development and applications of SWAT model[J]. Journal of Hohai University: Natural Sciences, 2012,40(3):243-251.
[22] 姜晓峰,王立,马放,等.SWAT模型土壤数据库的本土化构建方法研究[J].中国给水排水,2014,30(11):135-138.
Jiang X F, Wang L, Ma F, et al. Research on localization construction method of SWAT model soil database[J]. China Water & Wastewater,2014,30(11):135-138.
[23] Williams J R. The erosion-productivity impact calculator(EPIC)model: A case history[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 1990,329(1255):421-428.
[24] 郝芳华,程红光,杨胜天.非点源污染模型:理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006.
Hao F H, Cheng H G, Yang S T. Non Point Source Pollution Models: Theory, Methods, and Applications[M]. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press,2006.
[25] 林娴,陈晓宏,何艳虎,等.气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(5):828-839.
Lin X, Chen X H, He Y H, et al. Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual and maximum daily runoff in the Wujiang River Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(5):828-839.
[26] 刘春蓁,占车生,夏军,等.关于气候变化与人类活动对径流影响研究的评述[J].水利学报,2014,45(4):379-385.
Liu C Z, Zhan C S, Xia J, et al. Review on the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff research[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2014,45(4):379-385.
[27] 董磊华,熊立华,于坤霞,等.气候变化与人类活动对水文影响的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):278-285.
Dong L H, Xiong L H, Yu K X, et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change and human activities on hydrology[J]. Advances in Water Science,2012,23(2):278-285.
相似文献/References:
[1]余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):172.
YU Hai-long,HUANG Ju-ying,WANG Ting-he.Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):172.
[2]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):122.
[3]赵金忠,赵年武,赵恒和,等.贵德县近50年气候变化及对冬小麦生产潜力的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):260.
ZHAO Jin-zhong,ZHAO Nian-wu,ZHAO Heng-he,et al.Climatic Changes in the Past 50 Years in Guide County, Qinghai Province, and Their Influences on Potential Productivity of Winter Wheat[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):260.
[4]张艺,余新晓,范敏锐,等.北京山区刺槐林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):151.
ZHANG Yi,YU Xin-xiao,FAN Min-rui,et al.Response of Net Primary Productivity of Robinia pseudoacacia Forest to Climate Change in Beijing Mountainous Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):151.
[5]王兮之,梁钊雄,周显辉,等.黄河源区玛曲县植被覆盖度及其气候变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):57.
WANG Xi-zhi,LIANG Zhao-xiong,ZHOU Xian-hui,et al.Vegetation Coverage and Climate Change of Maqu County in Source Region of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):57.
[6]何毅,王飞,穆兴民,等.近60年关中一天水经济区降水量特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):65.
HE Yi,WANG Fei,MU Xing-min,et al.Analysis on Characteristic of Precipitation in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):65.
[7]卓玛兰草,刘普幸,张亚宁,等.甘肃黄土高原区潜在蒸散量时空变化与成因研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):70.
ZHUO Malancao,LIU Pu-xing,ZHANG Ya-ning,et al.Study on Temporal and Spatial Changes of the Potential Evapotranspiration and Its Impact Factors in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):70.
[8]南峰,李有利,史兴民.新疆玛纳斯河水量波动与气候变化之间的关系[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(03):59.
NAN Feng,LI You-li,SHI Xing-min.Relationship of the Fluctuations of Stream Discharge of the Manas River and Climatic Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,10(06):59.
[9]刘占静.2003年玛纳斯河汛期水情特征及其成因[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(04):198.
LIU Zhan-jing.Discharge Characteristic of the Manasi River During Flood Season of 2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(06):198.
[10]刘新春,杨金龙,杨青.三工河流域40年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):54.
LIU Xin-chun,YANG Jin-long,YANG Qing.Analysis on the Variations Characteristics of Air Temperature, Precipitation in the Sangong River Basin in the Past 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(06):54.
[11]曹 灿,孙 瑞,吴志祥,等.基于SWAT模型的南渡江上游流域径流对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):255.
CAO Can,SUN Rui,WU Zhixiang,et al.Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(06):255.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-10-08 修回日期:2022-11-01
资助项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费“松花江流域粮食生态安全水供求若干关键技术”(201501013)
第一作者:汪飞(1995—),男,江苏宜兴人,硕士,研究方向为气候变化对水文水资源的影响。E-mail:1239042167@qq.com
通信作者:洪林(1963—),女,安徽庐江县人,教授,研究方向为农田水利水环境。E-mail:lhong@whu.cn