CHEN Jiadong,TIAN Hongwei,HUANG Jin,et al.Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Drought in Henan Province with Using EEMD on the Agricultural Disaster Situation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):250-256,265.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.021.]
基于农业灾情EEMD的河南省干旱时空演变特征
- Title:
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Drought in Henan Province with Using EEMD on the Agricultural Disaster Situation
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)05-0250-07
- 分类号:
- P426
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]河南省是我国重要的粮食主产区,分析其干旱的时空演变特征对保障区域粮食安全有着重要意义。[方法]依托研究区1978—2019年农业干旱受灾率、成灾率以及逐日降水量等资料,运用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)探求了实际灾情与多种类型干旱指数的可能关系。在此基础上,分析了关键干旱致灾因子的时空演变特征及其对大尺度海洋—大气环流指数的响应。[结果]EEMD精准地从灾情逐年序列分离出由年际及年代际波动表征的气候干旱强度。多种干旱指数与气候干旱强度的相关分析表明夏季干旱对灾情影响最为显著,其中关键致灾因子识别为6月、7月、8月份的无雨日天数。关键致灾因子的空间分布表明河南省北部夏季干旱的危险性较高,其趋势分析指出干旱的危险性呈现出增强趋势。关键致灾因子与北大西洋涛动(NAO)等环流指数间存在着显著的时滞相关性。[结论]无雨日天数表征的夏季干旱对河南省灾情的贡献更高,而环流指数为提前预判旱情提供的重要信号。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] Henan Province is an important grain producing area in China, the analysis on the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural drought is of great significance to ensure regional food security. [Methods] Based on the data of ratio of area affected by agricultural drought, ratio of area suffering agricultural drought and monthly precipitation in the study area during the period from 1978 to 2019, the possible relationships between the actual disaster situation and various types of drought indexes were explored by using the set empirical mode decomposition(EEMD). On this basis, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of key causing-disaster factors and their responses to the large-scale ocean atmospheric circulation indices(LOACI)were analyzed. [Results] The climatic drought intensity characterized by inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations were accurately separated from the annual series of disaster situation by using EEMD. The correlation analysis between various drought indices and climatic drought intensity showed that summer drought had the most significant impact on the disaster situation, and the number of dry-days in June, July and August were selected as the key causing-disaster factors. The spatial distribution of key causing-disaster factors showed that the risk of summer drought in the north Henan was higher, and the trend analysis indicated that the drought risks presented an intensifying tendency. There were the significant time-lag correlations between the circulation indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and causing-disaster factors. [Conclusion] The summer drought represented by the number of dry-days had the higher contribution to disaster situation in Henan Province, and the circulation indices provided the important signals for predicting drought in advance.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-08-11 修回日期:2022-08-25
资助项目:中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放研究项目“基于市级尺度河南省主要粮油作物气象年景对大气环流指数的响应”(AFM202006)
第一作者:陈家栋(1987—),男,江苏省南京人,高级工程师,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化的研究。E-mail:shuiziyuan2019@126.com
通信作者:张金池(1962—),男,山东省安丘人,教授,博士,主要从事水土保持及气候变化的研究。E-mail:zjcforest@163.com