ZENG Yingting,LI Cheng,HUANG Xinzhou,et al.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Fujian Province in the Last 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(03):203-210.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.034]
近60年福建省极端降水的时空变化特征
- Title:
- Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Fujian Province in the Last 60 Years
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)03-0203-08
- Keywords:
- extreme precipitation; spatiotemporal change; atmospheric circulation indices; Fujian Province
- 分类号:
- P46
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究我国东南沿海地区极端降水变化的新特征,对该地区防灾减灾具有重要意义。[方法]以福建省为例,基于1960—2019年67个气象站点逐日降水数据,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了极端降水量(R95P)、极端降水频次(R95D)、极端降水强度(R95I)和极端降水贡献率(R95C)4个极端降水指数的时空变化特征,并阐明了极端降水指数与大气环流指数的相关性。[结果](1)近60年来福建省R95P,R95D,R95I和R95C呈现出增加趋势,变化率分别为24.90 mm/10 a,0.34 d/10 a,0.25(mm/d)/10 a和0.84%/10 a。(2)R95P,R95I和R95C均在1994年以后转为偏多(强)期,而R95D的突变点出现在1993年,由降水日数偏少期转变为偏多期。(3)西太平洋副高强度指数、南海副高强度指数和北半球极涡强度指数与极端降水指数之间有显著的相关性(p<0.05),特别是南海副高强度指数对转折后时段的R95D有显著影响。[结论]研究结果对该地区开展极端降水的生态风险评估提供重要参考。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]It is important for disaster prevention and mitigation to explore the new characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in the southeast coastal region of China. [Methods] Daily precipitation datasets of 67 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019 were selected, and methods of climate tendency rate and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of four extreme precipitation indices, including the extreme precipitation(R95P), extreme precipitation frequency(R95D), extreme precipitation intensity(R95I), and extreme precipitation contribution(R95C). Meanwhile, the correlation between extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric circulation indices was also analyzed. [Results](1)tR95P, R95D, R95I and R95C had the increasing trend during the last 60 years, and their change rates were 24.90 mm/decade, 0.34 d/decade, 0.25(mm/d)/decade and 0.84%decade, respectively.(2)R95P, R95I, and R95C had abrupt changes around the year 1994, which changed from a relatively low(weak)to a high(strong)period. The mutation of R95D occurred in 1993, changing from a low to high period.(3)There was the significant correlation between the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity Index, West Pacific Subtropical High intensity index, Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex Intensity Index and extreme precipitation indices(p<0.05). Particularly, the West Pacific Subtropical High has the significant influence on the R95D after the year of 1994. [Conclusion] The results provide a scientific basis for ecological risk assessments of extreme precipitation in Fujian Province under the background of climate change.
参考文献/References:
[1] Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(8).
[2] Fyfe J C, Gillett N P, Zwiers F W. Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013,3(9):767-769.
[3] IPCC. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis[M].UK: Cambridge university press, 2014.
[4] 慎璐璐,杨艳芬,吴晶,等.黄河流域极端气候事件时空变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(2):231-242.
[5] Zarekarizi M, Rana A, Moradkhani H. Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA[J].()Climate Dynamics, 2018,50(11):4519-4537.
[6] Muller C, Takayabu Y. Response of precipitation extremes to warming:what have we learned from theory and idealized cloud-resolving simulations, and what remains to be learned?[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2020,15(3):035001.
[7] 江雯,汪军红,孙鹏,等.大别山区不同降雨和植被条件下梯地产流产沙特征[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(1):28-35.
[8] Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2006,111:1-22.
[9] Donat M G, Peterson T C, Brunet M, et al. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region:long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2014,34(3):581-592.
[10] Lenderink G, Mok H Y, Lee T C, et al. Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones-Hong Kong and the Netherlands[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011,15(9):3033-3041.
[11] Westra S, Fowler H J, Evans J P, et al. Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2014,52(3):522-555.
[12] 马伟东,刘峰贵,周强,等.1961—2017年青藏高原极端降水特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2020,35(12):3039-3050.
[13] Wu H T J, Lau W K M. Detecting climate signals in precipitation extremes from TRMM(1998—2013)—Increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes during the“global warming hiatus”[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016,43(3):1340-1348.
[14] Gao X, Guo M, Yang Z, et al. Temperature dependence of extreme precipitation over mainland China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2020,583:124595.
[15] 严中伟,杨赤.近几十年中国极端气候变化格局[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(3):267-272.
[16] 张勇,许吟隆,董文杰,等.中国未来极端降水事件的变化:基于气候变化预估结果的分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):228-234.
[17] 陈星任,杨岳,何佳男,等.近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(9):2068-2081.
[18] 邹磊,夏军,张印.长江中下游极端降水时空演变特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2021,30(5):1264-1274.
[19] 杨金虎,江志红,杨启国,等.中国西北汛期极端降水事件分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):320-325.
[20] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕,张启龙.华南夏季极端降水时空变异及其与西北部太平洋海气异常关联性初探[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):110-121.
[21] 龙妍妍,范广洲,段炼,等.中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,2016,21(4):429-438.
[22] Wang B, Zhang M, Wei J, et al. Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China, 1960—2011[J]. Quaternary International, 2013,298:177-186.
[23] Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, et al. Why does precipitation in northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010?[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2016,167:275-284.
[24] Zhao G, Mu X, Hörmann G, et al. Spatial patterns and temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the Yangtze River Basin, China[J]. Quaternary International, 2012,282:5-13.
[25] 苏志重,石顺吉,张伟,等.1960—2010年福建省极端降水事件变化趋势分析[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(2):166-172.
[26] 陈丽娟,王壬,陈友飞.1960—2014年福建省极端气候事件时空特征及变化趋势[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(6):107-113.
[27] Guo X, Wu Z, He H, et al. Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2018,38(5):2423-2434.
[28] 陈星任,杨岳,何佳男,等.近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(9):2068-2081.
[29] 曾颖婷,陆尔.1961—2010年我国夏季总降水和极端降水的变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(2):79-85.
[30] 翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(9):1-10.
[31] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[32] Sun W, Mu X, Song X, et al. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau(China)during 1960—2013 under global warming[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2016,168:33-48.
[33] 卢珊,胡泽勇,王百朋,等.近56年中国极端降水事件的时空变化格局[J].高原气象,2020,39(4):683-693.
[34] 戴声佩,罗红霞,李茂芬,等.1959—2016年华南地区极端降水事件变化特征[J].中国农业资源与区划,2022,43(3):128-142.
[35] 郭湘宇,吴正方,杜海波,等.福建省极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1084-1098.
[36] 张超.夏季西太平洋副热带高压近60a特征变化及对中国夏季降水影响[C]//创新驱动发展提高气象灾害防御能力:S8副热带气象发展及生态环境影响,2013.
[37] 钱代丽,管兆勇,王黎娟.近57a夏季西太平洋副高面积的年代际振荡及其与中国降水的联系[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(5):677-685.
[38] 黄嘉佑,刘舸,赵昕奕.副高,极涡因子对我国夏季降水的影响[J].大气科学,2004,28(4):517-526.
相似文献/References:
[1]于泽兴,胡国华,陈肖,等.近45年来浏阳河流域极端降水变化[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(05):139.
YU Zexing,HU Guohua,CHEN Xiao,et al.Change in Extreme Precipitation in Liuyang River Basin During the Past 45 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(03):139.
[2]张余庆,陈昌春,姚鑫,等.江西省信江流域极端降水时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(04):189.
ZHANG Yuqing,CHEN Changchun,YAO Xin,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Variations in Xinjiang Basin, Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(03):189.
[3]杨波,张勃,安美玲,等.1961-2011年秦巴山区极端降水事件的时空特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):110.
YANG Bo,ZHANG Bo,AN Mei-Ling,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes in the Qinba Mountains Region during 1961-2011[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):110.
[4]袭祝香,杨雪艳,刘玉汐,等.松辽流域1961-2017年极端降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(03):199.
XI Zhuxiang,YANG Xueyan,LIU Yuxi,et al.Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Change from 1961 to 2017 in Songliao Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(03):199.
[5]孟清,高翔,白红英,等.1960-2015年秦岭地区极端降水的时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(06):171.
MENG Qing,GAO Xiang,BAI Hongying,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variations and Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Qinling Mountains During the Period 1960-2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(03):171.
[6]陈珊珊,臧淑英,孙 丽.多年冻土区土壤湿度的动态变化及影响[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):113.
CHEN Shanshan,ZANG Shuying,SUN Li.Dynamic Variation of Soil Moisture and Impact in Permafrost Regions in Northeast China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):113.
[7]折远洋,杨 波,尚清芳,等.近58年河西地区降水事件的连续性特征[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):139.
SHE Yuanyang,YANG Bo,SHANG Qingfang,et al.Characteristics of Continuity of Precipitation Events in Recent 58 Years in Hexi Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):139.
[8]范晨雨,景海涛,王 莉,等.太行山区气候时空变化及其对植被覆盖度的影响[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):146.
FAN Chenyu,JING Haitao,WANG Li,et al.Spatial-Temporal Change of Climate and Its Relationship with Vegetation Coverage in Taihang Mountainous Areas[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):146.
[9]谢胜金,刘永和,姚风欣.1998-2015年北京市NDVI时空变化及其与气候因子的响应关系[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):190.
XIE Shengjin,LIU Yonghe,YAO Fengxin.Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of NDVI and Its Relationship with Climate Change in Beijing from 1998 to 2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):190.
[10]张成才,娄 洋,李 颖,等.基于像元二分模型的伏牛山地区植被覆盖度变化[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):301.
ZHANG Chengcai,LOU Yang,LI Ying,et al.Change of Vegetation Coverage in Funiu Mountain Regions Based on the Dimidiate Pixel Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):301.
[11]王晓宁,岳大鹏,赵景波,等.黑龙江省1958-2017年极端降水时空变化与灾害效应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(05):138.
WANG Xiaoning,YUE Dapeng,ZHAO Jingbo,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variations and Disaster Effect of Extreme Precipitation from 1958 to 2017 in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):138.
[12]赵芹蕊,徐立荣,时延锋,等.1970—2019年济南市极端降水事件时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(04):140.
ZHAO Qinrui,XU Lirong,SHI Yanfeng,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Jinan During 1970—2019[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):140.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-02-15 修回日期:2022-03-23
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41801013); 江苏省自然科学资助项目(BK20180939); 福建省气象局青年科技专项(2021Q04)
第一作者:曾颖婷(1990—),女,福建漳州人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气候变化影响评估研究。E-mail:113236039@qq.com
通信作者:李成(1988—),男,江苏南京人,讲师,博士,主要从事地气交换与气候变化研究。E-mail:licheng_nj@163.com