MA Yali,NIU Zuirong,ZHANG Rui,et al.Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Factors of Potential Evapotranspiration in Shule River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):350-357.
疏勒河流域潜在蒸散发时空演变及驱动因素量化分析
- Title:
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Factors of Potential Evapotranspiration in Shule River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)05-0350-08
- Keywords:
- potential evapotranspiration; driving factors; climate change; quantitative relationship; Shule River Basin
- 分类号:
- P426
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了探明潜在蒸散发(ET0)时空演变规律及其与气象因素间的复杂交互作用关系,揭示水循环过程对气候变化响应机制,基于疏勒河流域10个气象站点1984—2019年逐日资料,采用聚类分析、灰色关联度分析、通径分析、敏感系数法等多种定性定量分析方法,确定主导驱动因素以及ET0变化对主导因子敏感程度及贡献大小。结果表明:ET0年际变化上升趋势显著,空间上由东南向西北逐渐增加。ET0季节排序为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季,四季空间分布由东南向西北逐渐递增。聚类分析及灰色关联度分析显示T(日平均温度)、RH(平均相对湿度)、P(降水量)、n(日照时间)、u(风速)为5个关键因素,通径分析表明T是最主要因素,P作用最小。对ET0变化,T,n,u起正向促进作用,RH起反向抑制作用,贡献率分别为7.96%,0.29%,3.14%,2.29%。ET0呈现增大趋势,是由于RH多年减少和T升高、n增加、u增大等共同作用结果,T升高是造成ET0增加的主要原因。探究疏勒河流域ET0变化机理为河西干旱内陆河地区ET0研究的方法理论及水资源合理、高效利用提供科学参考依据。
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the temporal and spatial variation of ET0 and its complex interaction with meteorological factors, and reveal the response mechanism of climate change to hydrological cycle, based on the daily data of ten meteorological stations in Shule River Basin from 1984 to 2019, a variety of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods were used to determine the dominant meteorological elements, and to explore the sensitivity and contribution of the dominant factors to ET0 changes, including cluster analysis, grey correlation analysis, path analysis, sensitivity coefficient method. The results show that the interannual variation of ET0 presented a significant upward trend, and it gradually increased from southeast to northwest spatially; ET0 in summer was the largest, followed by spring and autumn, while the smallest was observed in winter; ET0 increased gradually from southeast to northwest in four seasons. The results of cluster analysis and grey correlation analysis showed that T(average daily temperature), RH(average relative humidity), P(precipitation), n(sunshine duration), and u(wind speed)were the five key meteorological factors, T was the most important factor, and P played the least role. For the change of ET0, T, n and u had a positive promoting effect, while RH had a negative inhibiting effect. The contribution rates were 7.96%, 0.29%,3.14% and 2.29%, respectively. ET0 in Shule River Basin showed an increasing trend, which was due to the joint action of decreasing RH and increasing T, n and u over the years. The the increase of ET0 was mainly due to the increase of T. The study of ET0 variation mechanism in Shule River Basin can provide methods and theories of ET0 research and a scientific reference for the rational and efficient utilization of water resources in Hexi arid area.
参考文献/References:
[1] 张建云,王国庆,金君良,等.1956—2018年中国江河径流演变及其变化特征[J].水科学进展,2020,31(2):153-161.
[2] 张建云,王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源的影响[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[3] 邓兴耀,刘洋,刘志辉,等.中国西北干旱区蒸散发时空动态特征[J].生态学报,2017,37(9):2994-3008.
[4] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R]. Fao Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Fao, 1998.
[5] 刘昌明,孙睿.水循环的生态学方面:土壤—植被—大气系统水分能量平衡研究进展[J].水科学进展,1999,10(3):251-259.
[6] Wen J, Wang X H, Guo M H, et al. Impact of climate change on reference crop evapotranspiration in Chuxiong City, Yunnan Province[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 2012,5:113-119.
[7] 冯禹,崔宁博,魏新平,等.川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征与成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(14):78-86,339.
[8] 黄会平,曹明明,宋进喜,等.1957—2012年中国参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因子分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):315-326.
[9] 殷长琛,齐广平,康燕霞.基于云模型的甘肃省参考作物蒸散量时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(8):152-158.
[10] 李霞,刘廷玺,段利民,等.科尔沁湿草甸参考作物蒸散发模拟分析[J].中国沙漠,2020,40(2):134-143.
[11] 郑健,马静,王燕,等.基于气候分区的甘肃省参考作物蒸发蒸腾量时空分布特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2020,31(1):240-247.
[12] 杨小兵.聚类分析中若干关键技术的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2005.
[13] 邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987.
[14] 敬艳辉,邢留伟.通径分析及其应用[J].统计教育,2006(2):24-26.
[15] Beven K. A sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith actual evapotranspiration estimates[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1979,44(3):169-190.
[16] Yin Y H, Wu S H, Chen G, et al. Attribution analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes in China since the 1960s[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2010,101(1/2):19-28.
[17] 巩杰,钱彩云,钱大文.1977—2013年疏勒河中下游土地利用变化与环境响应[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(4):775-781.
[18] 魏乐民,郑续,郭建军,等.基于改进彭曼公式法的疏勒河流域植被耗水时空分布研究[J].干旱区研究,2020,37(6):1416-1426.
[19] 刘洋,张军,周冬梅,等.基于InVEST模型的疏勒河流域碳储量时空变化研究[J].生态学报,2021,41(10):4052-4065.
[20] 祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(2):196-206.
[21] 杜家菊,陈志伟.使用SPSS线性回归实现通径分析的方法[J].生物学通报,2010,45(2):4-6.
[22] 刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.
[23] 杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.洮河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(11):102-109.
[24] 康燕霞,齐广平,殷长琛,等.甘肃省参考作物蒸散量及影响因素的时空分异特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(5):154-162.
[25] 张彩霞,花婷,郎丽丽.河西地区潜在蒸散发量变化及其敏感性分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(4):357-362.
相似文献/References:
[1]张彩霞,花婷,郎丽丽.河西地区潜在蒸散发量变化及其敏感性分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(04):357.
ZHANG Caixia,HUA Ting,LANG Lili.Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiation and Its Sensitivity in Hexi Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(05):357.
[2]郝振纯,闫龙增,鞠琴,等.海河流域不同地貌气候变化时空分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):56.
HAO Zhen-chun,YAN Long-zeng,JU Qin,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Climate Variation in Different Kinds of Landforms of Haihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(05):56.
[3]陈 磊,孙佳新,姜 海,等.南京市土地利用结构时空格局及驱动因素[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(01):197.
CHEN Lei,SUN Jiaxin,JIANG Hai,et al.Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Land Use Structure in Nanjing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(05):197.
[4]段娅楠,季 漩,郭若愚,等.雅鲁藏布江流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性及其变化的主导因子分析[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(02):261.
DUAN Yanan,JI Xuan,GUO Ruoyu,et al.Analysis on the Sensitivity and Dominant Meteorological Factors Identification of Potential Evapotranspiration Variation in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(05):261.
[5]刘根林,闫 冰,赵东升,等.2003—2018年瑞兴于地区土地利用景观格局时空演变及驱动因素[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(03):235.
LIU Genlin,YAN Bing,ZHAO Dongsheng,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution of Landscape Pattern of Land Use and Its Driving Factors in Ruijin-Xingguo-Yudu Region from 2003 to 2018[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):235.
[6]韩 晶,崔金芳,杨 威,等.基于InVEST模型的低山丘陵区土壤侵蚀变化与驱动因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(05):32.
HAN Jing,CUI Jinfang,YANG Wei,et al.Analysis of Soil Erosion Change and Driving Factors in Low Hilly Areas Based on InVEST Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):32.
[7]李昱菡,郑子成,王永东,等.四川盆地丘陵区农业源甲烷排放时空变异特征及驱动因素[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(05):178.
LI Yuhan,ZHENG Zicheng,WANG Yongdong,et al.Spatiotemporal Variability of Agricultural Methane Emissions in the Hilly Area of Sichuan Basin and Its Driving Factors[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):178.
[8]常晓格,王志慧,肖培青,等.黄土高原生态系统水分利用效率演变及驱动因素空间分异规律[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(05):244.
CHANG Xiaoge,WANG Zhihui,XIAO Peiqing,et al.Spatial Variation Patterns of Dynamics of Water Use Efficiency of Ecosystem and Its Drivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):244.
[9]田晋华,李正勤,柯浩成,等.近60年来渭河甘肃段径流演变及驱动因素[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(01):183.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.025]
TIAN Jinhua,LI Zhengqin,KE Haocheng,et al.Runoff Evolution and Driving Factors of Weihe River in Gansu in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):183.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.025]
[10]蒋 蒙,田 鹏,穆兴民,等.嘉陵江流域输沙时空变化及归因分析[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(02):116.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.030]
JIANG Meng,TIAN Peng,MU Xingmin,et al.Spatiotemporal Variation and Attribution Analysis of Sediment Load in Jialing River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):116.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.02.030]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-07-20 修回日期:2021-08-06
资助项目:甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院科研团队建设专项资助项目(Gaucwky-04); 中国科学院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室开放课题(KLDD-2020-003); 甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5NA015); 甘肃农业大学科技创新基金—青年导师扶持资助项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16)
第一作者:马亚丽(1987—),女,河北保定人,讲师,主要从事水文与水资源方面的研究。E-mail:gsaumayl@163.com
通信作者:孙栋元(1978—),男,甘肃省民乐县人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源与干旱区水土资源方面的研究工作。E-mail:gsausundy@126.com