LI Yuhan,ZHENG Zicheng,WANG Yongdong,et al.Spatiotemporal Variability of Agricultural Methane Emissions in the Hilly Area of Sichuan Basin and Its Driving Factors[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):178-184.
四川盆地丘陵区农业源甲烷排放时空变异特征及驱动因素
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Variability of Agricultural Methane Emissions in the Hilly Area of Sichuan Basin and Its Driving Factors
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)05-0178-07
- 分类号:
- X71; S181
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探讨四川盆地丘陵区农业源CH4排放特征,采用IPCC排放因子法估算2007—2017年农业源CH4排放量,运用重心模型、Getis-Ord G*i指数检验和PLS-STIRPAT模型,探讨区域CH4排放的时空变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2007—2017年,盆地丘陵区农业源CH4排放量达(32.52～35.93)万t,其中种植业、畜禽养殖业排放占比分别为44.54%～48.26%和51.75%～55.46%,总排放量呈现出随年限增加而降低的趋势,与养殖业CH4排放密切相关。(2)2007—2017年,盆地丘陵区农业源CH4排放重心总体向东北方向迁移; 高排放聚集区主要位于研究区东北部,呈现出扩张的趋势,低排放聚集区主要位于西南部,与高值聚集区呈现出相反的缩减趋势。(3)驱动因素中,总人口、农业从业结构和农业产值结构对农业源CH4排放起到正向促进作用,城镇化率、单位面积施肥量、人均耕地占有量、人均GDP和农村用电量对农业源CH4排放起控制作用。其中农业产值结构是推动研究区CH4增长的重要因素。综上,盆地丘陵区农业源CH4排放水平较高,时空分布差异变动较小,通过农业生产集约集中规模化可有效降低农业源CH4的排放量。
- Abstract:
- In order to understand the characteristics of CH4 emission from agricultural sources in hilly areas of Sichuan Basin, the method of IPCC was used to measure agricultural CH4 emission in hilly areas of Sichuan basin from 2007 to 2017, and barycenter model, Getis-Ord G*i, PLS-STIRPAT model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of methane emissions and its major driving factors. The results show that:(1)the agricultural CH4 emissions in the hilly area of Sichuan Basin was up to(3.252～3.593)×105 tons in 2007—2017; the sources of crop farming and livestock and poultry industry accounted for 44.54%～48.26% and 51.75%～55.46%, respectively; the agricultural CH4 emissions showed a decrease trend, and this may be related to the decrease of CH4 emissions from the livestock and poultry industry;(2)the barycenter of agricultural CH4 emission tended to move to the northeast finally along with increasing time; the high CH4 emission gathering area was mainly located in the northeast, showed an expanding trend, and its high emissions increased significantly over time; on the contrary, the low CH4 emission gathering area was mainly located in the southwest, showed an opposite trend;(3)the total population, agricultural employment structure, and agricultural output structure played the positive role in agricultural CH4 emissions; the urbanization rate, fertilization amount per unit area, arable land occupation per capita, GDP per capita, and rural electricity consumption showed the negative effect on agricultural CH4 emissions; the agricultural output structure was the most important factor that promoted the agricultural CH4 emissions in the study area. In summary, the CH4 emission level of agricultural methane emission in hilly areas of Sichuan basin is relatively high, and the difference of spatio-emporal distribution changes little. The agricultural methane emission can be effectively reduced through the intensive and centralized scale of agricultural production.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-04-21 修回日期:2021-08-23
资助项目:四川农业大学学科建设特色创新团队项目“农田养分资源利用及环境效应”(2021-2023)
第一作者:李昱菡(1996—),女,四川南充南部人,硕士研究生,主要从事土壤生态研究。E-mail:yhanli@qq.com
通信作者:郑子成(1976—),男,内蒙古乌兰察布人,博士生导师,教授,主要从事土壤侵蚀与水土保持研究。E-mail:zichengzheng@aliyun.com