SHI Ziyue,XIN Cunlin,JIAO Zhipeng,et al.Preliminary Analysis on Hazard Risk Assessment on Rockslide-Debris Flow of Yeliguan National Geopark[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):411-418.
冶力关国家地质公园崩滑—碎屑流危险性评价初探
- Title:
- Preliminary Analysis on Hazard Risk Assessment on Rockslide-Debris Flow of Yeliguan National Geopark
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)03-0411-08
- Keywords:
- Yeliguan; rockslide-debris flow; alpine region; risk assessment; maxEnt
- 分类号:
- P694
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- “崩滑—碎屑流”是包含有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流的一类特殊运动形式,具有速度快、滑程远、危险性高等特征,确定其分布区域是进行灾害防治的基础。冶力关国家地质公园地处青藏高原东北缘,区内地质环境条件复杂,中小规模崩滑—碎屑流在园区局部呈密集分布。选取11个相关影响因素,借助ArcGIS与maxEnt进行崩滑—碎屑流的危险性评价。结果表明:崩滑—碎屑流主要发育在石炭纪、二叠纪地层中,基岩表面多裸露、破碎,物源类型以风化岩质为主; 极高危险区与高危险区位于研究区的西北部和南部,占总面积的8.71%; maxEnt训练数据集的AUC值为0.982,测试数据集的AUC值为0.964,灾害点密度随危险性等级的升高而增加,与危险性等级的划分原则相符。该研究结果反映了在高寒气候环境下,极低的地表温度与反复冻融的冻胀力不直接诱发崩滑—碎屑流,但昼夜温差与季节性温差可能加速了岩土体的崩解变形与裂隙扩大,同时maxEnt的高精度评价能够为同类型地质公园的灾害治理及其评价提供借鉴。
- Abstract:
- Rockslide-debris flow is a special movement form including collapse, landslide and debris flow, which has the characteristics of high speed, long sliding range and high risk. The identification of its distribution area is the basis of disaster prevention and control. Yeliguan National Geopark is located in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, small and medium-sized rockslide-debris flows densely distributed in the part of the geopark of complex geological environment. Based on the field investigation, 11 influencing factors were selected to assess rockslide-debris flow hazard risk by adopting ArcGIS and maxEnt. The results showed that the rockslide-debris flows mainly developed in the Carboniferous and Permian strata with exposed and broken bedrock surface, the main source of rockslide-debris flow was type of rock; the extremely high-risk area and high-risk area were located in the northwest and south of the study area, accounting for 8.71% of the total area; the AUC values of maxEnt training data set and testing data set were 0.982 and 0.964, respectively, the density of hazard points increased with the ascent of risk grade, which was consistent with the principle of risk grade. The results reflect that rockslide-debris flow was not directly caused by the extremely low surface temperature and the frost heaving force of repeated freezing in the alpine climate environment of the study area, however, the temperature difference between day and night with seasonal temperature difference may accelerate the disintegrating deformation and cracking expansion of rock mass. Meanwhile, high-precision evaluation of maxEnt can objectively provide reference for hazard management and evaluation in similar geoparks.
参考文献/References:
[1] 戴兴建,殷跃平,邢爱国.易贡滑坡—碎屑流—堰塞坝溃坝链生灾害全过程模拟与动态特征分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2019,30(5):1-8.
[2] 刘传正.论崩塌滑坡—碎屑流高速远程问题[J].地质论评,2017,63(6):1563-1575.
[3] 夏式伟.易贡滑坡—碎屑流—堰塞坝溃决三维数值模拟研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2018.
[4] Delaney K B, Evans S G. The 2000 Yigong landslide(Tibetan Plateau), rockslide-dammed lake and outburst flood:Review, remote sensing analysis, and process modelling[J]. Geomorphology, 2015,246:377-393.
[5] 郑鸿超,石振明,彭铭,等.崩滑碎屑体堵江成坝研究综述与展望[J].工程科学与技术,2020,52(2):19-28.
[6] Kargel J S, Leonard G J, Shugar D H, et al. Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake[J]. Science, 2016,351(6269):aac8353.
[7] 夏式伟,郑昭炀,袁小一,等.芦山地震汤家沟滑坡—碎屑流过程模拟[J].山地学报,2017,35(4):527-534.
[8] Li C R, Wang M, Liu K. A decadal evolution of landslides and debris flows after the Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Geomorphology, 2018,323:1-12.
[9] 张志东,樊晓一,姜元俊.岩土体颗粒级配对滑坡碎屑流冲击力力链特征的影响[J].山地学报,2020,38(3):402-415.
[10] 吴凤元,樊赟赟,陈剑平,等.基于不同侵蚀模型的高速崩滑碎屑流动力过程模拟分析[J].岩土力学,2019,40(8):3236-3246.
[11] Fan X M, Scaringi G, Korup G, et al. Earthquake-induced chains of geologic hazards:patterns, mechanisms, and impacts[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2019,57(2):421-503.
[12] Phillips S J, Dudik M. Modeling of species distributions with maxENT:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Ecography, 2008,31(2):161-175.
[13] 刘振生,高惠,滕丽微,等.基于maxENT模型的贺兰山岩羊生境适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(22):7243-7249.
[14] 李宏群,刘晓莉,汪建华,等.基于maxEnt模型荔枝在中国的潜在种植区预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(2):394-400.
[15] 迟翔文,江峰,高红梅,等.三江源国家公园雪豹和岩羊生境适宜性分析[J].兽类学报,2019,39(4):397-409.
[16] Aiding K, Majid O, Abdolreza B. Landslide susceptibility assessment using maximum entropy model with two different data sampling methods [J]. Catena, 2017,152:144-162.
[17] 金文斌,刘海博,辛存林,等.甘肃临潭冶力关国家地质公园地质遗迹资源及旅游地学意义[J].甘肃地质,2019,28(1):91-97.
[18] Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[19] 崔鹏,邓宏艳,王成华,等.山地灾害[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2018.
[20] 郭长宝,唐杰,吴瑞安,等.基于证据权模型的川藏铁路加查:朗县段滑坡易发性评价[J].山地学报,2019,37(2):240-251.
[21] Gutman G, Ignatov A. The derivation of the green vegetation fraction from NOAA/AVHRR data for use in numerical weather prediction models[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1998,19:1533-1543.
[22] 王伟军,赵雪雁,万文玉,等.2000—2014年甘南高原植被覆盖度变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(9):2494-2504.
[23] Zhang T, Zhou X P, Liu X F. Reliability analysis of slopes using the improved stochastic response surface methods with multicollinearity[J]. Engineering Geology, 2020,271:105617.
[24] 戴岚欣,许强,范宣梅,等.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(4):1151-1164.
[25] 熊俊楠,朱吉龙,苏鹏程,等.基于GIS与信息量模型的溪洛渡库区滑坡危险性评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(3):700-711.
[26] 杜晓晨,陈莉,陈廷芳.基于GIS的凉山州德昌县滑坡危险性评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(5):1206-1215.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-02-03 修回日期:2020-05-13
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41262001); 甘肃省地矿局地质遗迹调查研究科研专题(SKY-2018)
第一作者:施紫越(1993—),男,甘肃兰州人,硕士研究生,研究方向为山地灾害风险评价。E-mail:Guy1105_szy@163.com
通信作者:辛存林(1967—),男,甘肃秦安人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为第四纪地质灾害与环境。E-mail:xcunlin@nwnu.edu.cn